The tropical wave that was yesterday unsually far south and given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in 48 hours has been downgraded to a 40% chance and the system has been moving WNW and out of the path of T&T but may still affect the Lesser Antilles.
Historically, storms tend to form in this area in September. In June they form in the Gulf of Mexico and in July and August they gradually begin to form further and further south and east. One of the many factors which influences cyclogenesis is the sea surface temperature (SST). For a cyclone to form it requires an SST of at least 26.5C (80F).
The current SST just off the Cape Verde Islands, where this system is located, is 28C with some sections around 30C.
The map below shows the computer calculations for where this system may head; each dot on the line represents a day:
This is the report from the National Hurricane Center:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
It seems that the storms are starting earlier in the year and further south than usual this year. This may put T&T more at risk than usual. Please be prepared.
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