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2010 and 2011 Tropical weather discussion

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MISHI
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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby MISHI » June 14th, 2010, 12:20 am

I won't have faith in that till at least wednesday...

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 14th, 2010, 1:15 am

ALOT of storms last year took the almost completely northern track shown above by the LBAR model. The Caribbean better hope this one does that too.
BAMM puts it on a collision course for Haiti. They cannot handle a hurricane right now nah!

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby MISHI » June 14th, 2010, 2:08 am

So true. Let ut really hope this one does take a northern run. It just that usually those storms that pass us well north start at a center of 9- 11 N usual. This one was at 6-7 N...


If it does develop we will still get a lot of WX activity if it geeps going... but all it has to do is come dead west for a day or two... which especially watching the sea temps etc is quite possible...

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby redmanjp » June 14th, 2010, 2:12 am

the sea temps influence where it goes?

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 14th, 2010, 2:58 am

^ of course, hurricanes thrive in warmer water
Sea surface temperatures are a major contributing factor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone#Factors

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby gallantpan » June 14th, 2010, 7:08 am

This is good info!!

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby xtech » June 14th, 2010, 7:17 am

hmmmm....... so sorry for BP

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby redmanjp » June 14th, 2010, 8:26 am

Duane 3NE 2NR wrote:^ of course, hurricanes thrive in warmer water
Sea surface temperatures are a major contributing factor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone#Factors


yeah i know they need warm water because thats where they get their energy but what i was asking is if the temp of the water influences the actual direction that it goes-i.e.- would high temp waters around T&T steer it closer to us?

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby xtech » June 14th, 2010, 8:37 am

Prevailing winds drive it..............an by chance if there is warm water we get development. If the winds send it here an we gots warm water it needs to strengthen to bad for Tobago.

god is ah trini..... :skurred:

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby SUPAstarr » June 14th, 2010, 8:54 am

based on its position from yesterday to today, WNW or NW movement should keep us safe, pray for haiti again tho

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 14th, 2010, 3:31 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby MISHI » June 14th, 2010, 6:13 pm

That's better news for us and on the whole... hopefully it won't develop. seems like it's being sheared by the system behind it

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 14th, 2010, 11:44 pm

^ alot of upper level wind in our area too is good for us

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 15th, 2010, 11:39 am

hope this doesnt happen again

in 1933

number 2 was a Hurricane when it passed over T&T

Image

The hurricane season officially began on June 1, but there was little detectable activity during most of June. That tranquility came to an end on June 27, when a tropical storm was first observed just off the coast of northern Guyana. It strengthened as it moved west-northwestward, and it became a hurricane later that day. Continuing to the west-northwest, the hurricane brushed southern Trinidad and made landfall on northeastern Venezuela on June 28, becoming the earliest known tropical cyclone to affect the area.[2] The system weakened to a tropical storm over land but re-attained hurricane status on July 1 while in the western Caribbean Sea. The hurricane curved to the northwest and moved over western Cuba on July 3. It turned to the west in the Gulf of Mexico and reached a peak intensity of 105 mph (170 km/h) on July 5, making it a Category 2 hurricane. The hurricane turned to the west-southwest due to a building high pressure area to its north then weakened. It made landfall on the coast of Tamaulipas and weakened to tropical storm status. The system finally dissipated over land on July 7.[5]

On southern Trinidad, the hurricane caused severe damage, amounting to around US$3 million (1933 USD, $50.4 million 2010 USD). 13 people were killed on the island, and another 1,000 were left homeless. In northeastern Venezuela, the hurricane destroyed many houses, businesses, and boats, and strong winds downed power lines; many people were killed in the area.[2] In Cuba, the storm killed 22 people, while damage amounted to US$4 million (1933 USD, $67.2 million 2010 USD).[6] The hurricane caused severe damage and several deaths in northeastern Mexico.[2] In all, the hurricane killed 35 people.[7]


Image

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby Mr Gear » June 15th, 2010, 11:42 am

That was real number 2 then.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby Rahtid » June 15th, 2010, 11:50 am

rain for the next few days?

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 15th, 2010, 1:38 pm

^ the forecast says a 30% chance of rain on Wednesday and Thursday and a 40% chance of rain on Saturday

Monday thundershowers forecasted

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby streetbeastINC. » June 17th, 2010, 10:34 pm

central Caribbean gonna get it....rel rain ther

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby hustla_ambition101 » June 20th, 2010, 9:11 pm

Dang I need to stock up on supplies

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 26th, 2010, 12:38 am

ah!

we have Tropical Depression 1 for 2010

Image

hopefully it will not get to hurricane levels when it comes back out into the Gulf

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby redmanjp » June 26th, 2010, 1:01 am

it going and send d oil further in

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 26th, 2010, 1:31 am

:shock: :shock: :shock:
oil-hurricane-.jpg

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby redmanjp » June 26th, 2010, 5:19 am

Alex is here!

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby apple » June 26th, 2010, 9:33 am

Duane 3NE 2NR wrote::shock: :shock: :shock:
oil-hurricane-.jpg


oh phoq!!

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby rossi » June 26th, 2010, 10:59 am

alex in full force boy...

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby redmanjp » June 26th, 2010, 7:12 pm

the latest picture suggests it will miss the oil slick luckily

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 27th, 2010, 2:13 pm

Image

Dave @ stormcarib.com wrote:TS Alex, our first of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is plowing towards the Yucatan Peninsula bringing heavy rains to Honduras, Belize, the Caymans, and the Yucatan itself. Alex is not forecast to strengthen significantly before crossing the Yucatan and that's the good thing.

After drenching the area and weakening, Alex will have a few days to re-organize. It appears the trough previously forecast to drop down and pick Alex up and sweep him north and east will not materialize in any strong fashion which puts Alex on a course with the Texas coastline as a possible Category 1 hurricane or the eastern coast of Mexico as a strong TS. The factors for this are: low wind shear, a high heat content in the Gulf, the lack of a real steering current, and the fact Alex will slow down, allowing for more time over those warm, moist waters! Oil spill ramifications will be higher wave/current action forcing some oil over their containment systems.

94L still is just that, an Invest. Wind shear is kicking in this area but could develop a bit down the road. Bermuda needs to watch this.

Dave

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby rossi » June 27th, 2010, 5:44 pm

still...they have some pressha to see.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 30th, 2010, 2:44 pm

Alex beating up on the coast of northern Mexico and Southern Texas

Image

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Re: The official tropical weather thread: image updates on p

Postby rmtuner » July 1st, 2010, 5:40 pm

Some real heavy rain right now in North.
Storm winds too!

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