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Duane 3NE 2NR wrote:^ of course, hurricanes thrive in warmer water
Sea surface temperatures are a major contributing factor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone#Factors
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.
The hurricane season officially began on June 1, but there was little detectable activity during most of June. That tranquility came to an end on June 27, when a tropical storm was first observed just off the coast of northern Guyana. It strengthened as it moved west-northwestward, and it became a hurricane later that day. Continuing to the west-northwest, the hurricane brushed southern Trinidad and made landfall on northeastern Venezuela on June 28, becoming the earliest known tropical cyclone to affect the area.[2] The system weakened to a tropical storm over land but re-attained hurricane status on July 1 while in the western Caribbean Sea. The hurricane curved to the northwest and moved over western Cuba on July 3. It turned to the west in the Gulf of Mexico and reached a peak intensity of 105 mph (170 km/h) on July 5, making it a Category 2 hurricane. The hurricane turned to the west-southwest due to a building high pressure area to its north then weakened. It made landfall on the coast of Tamaulipas and weakened to tropical storm status. The system finally dissipated over land on July 7.[5]
On southern Trinidad, the hurricane caused severe damage, amounting to around US$3 million (1933 USD, $50.4 million 2010 USD). 13 people were killed on the island, and another 1,000 were left homeless. In northeastern Venezuela, the hurricane destroyed many houses, businesses, and boats, and strong winds downed power lines; many people were killed in the area.[2] In Cuba, the storm killed 22 people, while damage amounted to US$4 million (1933 USD, $67.2 million 2010 USD).[6] The hurricane caused severe damage and several deaths in northeastern Mexico.[2] In all, the hurricane killed 35 people.[7]
Duane 3NE 2NR wrote::shock:
Dave @ stormcarib.com wrote:TS Alex, our first of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is plowing towards the Yucatan Peninsula bringing heavy rains to Honduras, Belize, the Caymans, and the Yucatan itself. Alex is not forecast to strengthen significantly before crossing the Yucatan and that's the good thing.
After drenching the area and weakening, Alex will have a few days to re-organize. It appears the trough previously forecast to drop down and pick Alex up and sweep him north and east will not materialize in any strong fashion which puts Alex on a course with the Texas coastline as a possible Category 1 hurricane or the eastern coast of Mexico as a strong TS. The factors for this are: low wind shear, a high heat content in the Gulf, the lack of a real steering current, and the fact Alex will slow down, allowing for more time over those warm, moist waters! Oil spill ramifications will be higher wave/current action forcing some oil over their containment systems.
94L still is just that, an Invest. Wind shear is kicking in this area but could develop a bit down the road. Bermuda needs to watch this.
Dave
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