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PPGPL IPO...

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snatman
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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby snatman » August 14th, 2015, 12:00 pm

Anthony Wilson echoes some of the concerns I and others brought up:
An estimated PE of 20 would mean that TTNGL is tremendously overpriced and would present little short to medium term value for potential investors.
In other words, at an estimated PE of 20, TTNGL is not likely to be oversubscribed and unlikely to provide investors with the type of bounce that FCB did.
What’s more is that while NEL, UTC and NIB were in the market to buy FCB shares, those institutions already have stakes in Phoenix Park, by virtue of their acquisition of the 10 per cent of PPGPL held by Pan West in November last year.
While there is merit in using the complete 2014 results, by NGC’s own admission, product prices in 2015 are likely to be “at least” 45 per cent less than 2014.
That admission, in my view, means that using the 2014 results may present a misleading estimate of TTNGL’s value.
Of course, if NGC were to publish PPGPL and TTNGL’s second quarter results (for the period ending June 30, 2015) potential investors would have a better sense of whether using the 2014 results to come up with a PE estimate is even advisable.
SAUCE

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby bushwakka » August 14th, 2015, 12:53 pm

JMG wrote:
snatman wrote:
Internationally, the US is laying out a plan to cut Co2 emissions by 25-28% and the only viable solution that I see would be for them to switch their "Coal" fueled electric plants over to natural gas. Yes the US has a vast supply of natural gas reserves but history will show that they would rather purchase from the global market before taping into their reserves.

[/color]


umm....say wut? So what do you call the currently increasing natural gas production within the US through shale gas exploitation? Isn't that tapping their reserves?

Haven't they hugely cut back on LNG imports from Trinidad and have forced us to send LNG to further markets....as far as Japan? Why do you think the natural gas price has been declining since the advent of the shale gas boom?

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby pugboy » August 14th, 2015, 4:12 pm

some of you guys seem very positive in the face of direct factual negative info
do you guys have other investments in local stockex ?

if not why not invest in a solid company like witco which pays
good dividends, has increasing profits and captive market for its goods

I think a lot of ppl clouded into thinking that this gonna have a big jump like fcb

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby sMASH » August 14th, 2015, 4:20 pm

^^ Yup. People are.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby pugboy » August 14th, 2015, 4:30 pm

always remember,
in stock market failures the small man is usually the one left holding the bag

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby bushwakka » August 14th, 2015, 10:34 pm

pugboy wrote:some of you guys seem very positive in the face of direct factual negative info
do you guys have other investments in local stockex ?

if not why not invest in a solid company like witco which pays
good dividends, has increasing profits and captive market for its goods

I think a lot of ppl clouded into thinking that this gonna have a big jump like fcb


yea, i won out well from fcb but i'm skeptical about this one....especially cuz of the energy link

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby DVSTT » August 14th, 2015, 10:54 pm

I wish I had put more $ in fcb tbh... Oh wait I tried but they limited us.

PPGPL shaping up to be a really disappointing offering this year. Might be better off buying a cheaper company like Grace Kennedy for a lot less.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby jusjase44 » August 17th, 2015, 12:21 pm

ok I got a novice question, I see the decrease in profits but isn't that part in US$? aren't we still talking about a billion profit after tax

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby jusjase44 » August 17th, 2015, 12:33 pm

isn't ttngl 39% worth 345.288 million with a shareholding of 154.8 million????

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby DVSTT » August 18th, 2015, 7:06 pm

Should we expect the introduction of property tax during the next term?
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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby neilsingh100 » August 18th, 2015, 7:37 pm

Hearing from multiple sources Ministry of Finance taking long to pay bills, something is up.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby DVSTT » August 18th, 2015, 9:22 pm

neilsingh100 wrote:Hearing from multiple sources Ministry of Finance taking long to pay bills, something is up.


well we're spending like mad on development and social programs with declining revenue so I'd expect as much. I'm expecting them to implement some sort of property taxation in an effort to supplement the decreased income.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby pugboy » August 18th, 2015, 10:31 pm

Vasant say after elections things will be normel

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby snatman » August 27th, 2015, 11:15 am

Bourse gives a reserved assessment of the IPO

TL/DR - IPO is evenly priced. $22-$28 twelve month target

I'll pass, might pick up some on the open market when the price stabilises (downward)

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby Country_Bookie » August 27th, 2015, 11:25 am

^Just remember u have to pay commissions when purchasing (and selling) on the open market.

Anyone has an outlook for nat gas production in TT for the next 2 years? The supply of Nat gas has been uneven for a while with the shutdowns and low quality of gas. Companies like Phx Park & Methanol Hldgs are dependent on a steady supply of gas to generate revenues. BP's Juniper field not going to start producing any gas till 2017, so these companies might be under pressure till then.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby snatman » August 27th, 2015, 11:36 am

im looking at $11-14 a share after its listed, I'll happily pay my .016% commission on that!!

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby neilsingh100 » August 27th, 2015, 11:54 am

snatman wrote:Bourse gives a reserved assessment of the IPO

TL/DR - IPO is evenly priced. $22-$28 twelve month target

TTNGL released their Q2 2015 results.

Q2 EPS is 33c per share which is better than Q1 EPS of 24c but nothing great to talk about.

I think Bourse forecast is a little too optimistic given the downside risks.

There are better investments in the energy sector given the correction in the US stock market.

For example, I could buy shares is BP or BHP Billiton that are paying 7% dividends.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby DVSTT » August 27th, 2015, 7:13 pm

News said the IPO is under subscribed.
Minister said they're planning I 4 other IPOs though so that's something to look forward to.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby pugboy » August 27th, 2015, 7:20 pm

So it bussing then

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby DVSTT » August 27th, 2015, 7:48 pm

So fuel subsidy cut, property tax and some social welfare cuts to be expected in the next budget?

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby RASC » August 27th, 2015, 8:08 pm

DVSTT wrote:News said the IPO is under subscribed.
Minister said they're planning I 4 other IPOs though so that's something to look forward to.


That's why BOURSE is out there trying to promote it ... They couldn't have picked a worse time to go public.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby mitsutt » August 27th, 2015, 8:11 pm

IPO will be undersubscribed, plus the PE is too high,there are better stock options to buy.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby PapaC » August 27th, 2015, 8:13 pm

But we knew that the IPO was ill timed. They should have expected this kind of response, especially with the election season. Early this year I was being told that they wanted to do it before the August vacation, seems like they went against their own advice.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby zoom rader » August 28th, 2015, 7:29 am

PapaC wrote:But we knew that the IPO was ill timed. They should have expected this kind of response, especially with the election season. Early this year I was being told that they wanted to do it before the August vacation, seems like they went against their own advice.


They coincide it for bank workers back pay at FCB not sure about the other bank workers.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby snatman » August 28th, 2015, 8:05 am

I disagree, The IPO isn't ill-timed, its simply overpriced. I've been saying that since the prospectus was released.
$10-$12 should have been the price.

FCB's IPO price was about 40% undervalued - it was sold out and oversubscribed

TTNGL is about 65% OVERVALUED - looming under-subscription

PapaC wrote:But we knew that the IPO was ill timed. They should have expected this kind of response, especially with the election season. Early this year I was being told that they wanted to do it before the August vacation, seems like they went against their own advice.
Last edited by snatman on August 28th, 2015, 8:11 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby Redman » August 28th, 2015, 8:06 am

Its bloody stupid to allow the POLITICIANS to decide what we IPO ing and when we doing it.

If the policy is to divest....higher the Investment bankers and let them make their recommendations...

So here we are...IPO floundering,opportunity missed,money spent (hard not to correlate the political benefits of the ad campaign...which was really good).

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby DVSTT » August 28th, 2015, 8:22 am

Redman wrote:Its bloody stupid to allow the POLITICIANS to decide what we IPO ing and when we doing it.

If the policy is to divest....higher the Investment bankers and let them make their recommendations...

So here we are...IPO floundering,opportunity missed,money spent (hard not to correlate the political benefits of the ad campaign...which was really good).



I seriously would like to know what running 3 ads during cnc3 news hour costs per day. Can't imagine it'd be too cheap, especially if it's a government ad.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby neilsingh100 » August 28th, 2015, 9:06 am

Long term it may still be a good investment.

I think there may be an appetite from institutional investors and pensions funds not looking for a short term investment.

I think the public was treating the IPO like lotto and not considering it is a good long term investment.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby PapaC » August 28th, 2015, 9:18 am

snatman, @ a price of $10-$12 then i cant see it even making sense to have an IPO.
Their main intention was making back on their investment. At that price I doubt they would make back.

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Re: PPGPL IPO...

Postby DVSTT » August 28th, 2015, 11:47 am

Oil and gas prices are up.

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