Habit7 wrote:Miami predicting a moderate season but I think that they will be wrong again.
Hurricane prediction team raises forecastBy Jim Waymer, Florida Today
On the first official day of the Atlantic hurricane season, a Colorado State University forecast team added new storms to its forecast, but members still expect slightly below-average storm activity because of an unusual cooling of the tropical Atlantic.
The team Friday called for 13 named storms, up from its April prediction of 10, during the 2012 Atlantic season. That includes the two named storms, Alberto and Beryl, that formed before June 1.
Five of those 13 are expected to reach hurricane strength, one more than originally expected. Two of those are expected to become major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater, a prediction that remained the same as in April.
The team tries for best estimates of storm activity, not an exact measure of storms, members say. They made their June 1 forecast based on a new system that relies on 29 years of historical data.
"We have increased our numbers slightly from our early April forecast, due largely to our uncertainty as to whether an El Nino will develop later this summer as well as somewhat marginal Atlantic basin conditions," Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the forecasts said in a release.
The team's founder, William Gray, said pre-June-1 tropical cyclone activity historically has little bearing on the rest of the hurricane season.
"The only two seasons on record with two named storms prior to June 1 were 1887 and 1908," Gray said. "While 1887 was a very active season, 1908 had average levels of activity. The last season with a U.S. landfall prior to June 1 was 1976, which was a relatively quiet season."
People still should prepare, the Colorado State team said. They accurately predicted a quiet storm season in 1992. But the one major hurricane that formed was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated South Florida.
Climate conditions are aligning similar to the way they did in the 1953, 1968, 2001 and 2009 hurricane seasons, the Colorado State team said.
"We anticipate that the 2012 hurricane season will have slightly more activity than what was experienced in the average of these four years, due to the slightly more active season predicted by our statistical model," Klotzbach said.
The team will issue a final hurricane season forecast update Aug. 3. In an average year, about 85 percent of named storm activity and 95 percent of major hurricane activity happens after Aug. 1 when ocean waters have warmed from summer heat in the Northern Hemisphere.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurrica ... 55333722/1I guess I was right
hold on, hold on...
