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The official tropical weather thread 2016

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PariaMan
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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby PariaMan » September 30th, 2016, 8:18 pm

Actually heading south south west. It has not turned yet. It is predicted to turn west then north .

So not headed straight for Jamaica at least not yet.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby redmanjp » September 30th, 2016, 11:51 pm

this ting was just a wave 2 days ago passing by we and now Cat. 5! :shock:


BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...MATTHEW BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE FELIX IN 2007.
..


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 72.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and
elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew.
Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 72.3 West. Matthew is moving
just south of due west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward
the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula tonight, move
across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be approaching
Jamaica late Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260
km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by a reconnaissance aircraft
was 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area in Colombia overnight. Hurricane
conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby redmanjp » September 30th, 2016, 11:54 pm

Category 5 means catastrophic damage going to occur at least in the hurricane force wind field area!

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby *$kїđž!™ » October 1st, 2016, 1:34 am

Jamaica is bracing hard.....trinidad really lucky yes.....

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Re: RE: Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby bluesclues » October 1st, 2016, 5:39 am

PariaMan wrote:Actually heading south south west. It has not turned yet. It is predicted to turn west then north .

So not headed straight for Jamaica at least not yet.


Because theyve been counting on coriolis effect. But matthew is doing something rather unconventinal... even... tactical...

By creating a massive disturbance while a wave. Matthew was able to breach our shields with a small wave which it kept pumping with gas to keep alive. That wave has grown so much that matthew now has a visible and stable looking 'double yolk'. That second yolk is now acting as a pivot for matthew who has attached itself to our shields and using it to hug the coast line and defy the coriolis effect.

Looks more like the intention is to breach the southamerican coastline at north venezuela and run inland. The fker have cat 5 outside the shield and a yolk of equal size inside the shield. This seems to have created a sort of perpetual motion that is accelerating matthew's growth.

That yolk looks really solid right now so im going to go with something unconventional as a prediction. Matthew, wants to turn south. There is a minute chance that it can make a full loop and come back around towards us. But as long as that yolk persists, matthew will not adhere to coriolis effect expectations.

Watch this ting. I would say there is a risk of that yolk developing into a separate hurricane of it's own. I watch matthew bring it up from baby. And it seems to me to be trying to gain its own independent spin.

Image

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby shake d livin wake d dead » October 1st, 2016, 6:51 am

Cat 5....geeez...prays be with Jamaica

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby ru$$ell » October 1st, 2016, 7:10 am

decreased to a cat 4,but only by 5mph

https://gma.yahoo.com/hurricane-matthew ... ories.html

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby sMASH » October 1st, 2016, 7:35 am

They will run out of here energy just now. Punch the nos too early and only burning out.

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Re: RE: Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby bluesclues » October 1st, 2016, 1:52 pm

sMASH wrote:They will run out of here energy just now. Punch the nos too early and only burning out.


Not so sure. It lost some power because it's hammering our shields and trying to keep second yolk fueled because that's it's backdoor in. But it seems intelligently guided. When it does that it loses power, but then it takes time to regenerate before trying again. Current movement is reported as southward at 2mph by weatherunderground. A hammer attempt. If it fails it will turn westward again.

Shields real wukkin tho. Matthew have to fight and struggle even with this strategy to cross the border.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby shem1996_ » October 1st, 2016, 2:01 pm

Image

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » October 1st, 2016, 2:20 pm

shem1996_ wrote:Image
this was last week before Matthew even formed into a tropical storm :roll:

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby K74T » October 1st, 2016, 3:07 pm

Man still using dial up

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby redmanjp » October 1st, 2016, 11:03 pm

Jamaica gonna need aid come next week for sure. And there will be some lives lost

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby bluefete » October 2nd, 2016, 12:31 am

Slartibartfast wrote:
cherrypopper wrote:Matthew said the government will deal with us instead

Nah Mathew was 'fraid' they wudda tax all the rain he bringing in until he is just a minor disturbance.


Nah, boy. Matthew hear we does t'ief wind and all in Trinidad and decide he go be safer up de islands.

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The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby xtech » October 2nd, 2016, 7:17 am

bluefete wrote:
desifemlove wrote:i spoke to Him, and he said he created all humanity, and has no favourite country, so He doh care who get hit/lick up by earthquake, flood, or storm, and for His chirren in Trinbago not to spout that foolishness since human affairs are beneath Him..

I doubt it will turn into a hurricane, but then we've had bad storms before. it may actually boost economy due to rebuilding, fixing roads, slight damaged rooves and stuff.


And where will the money come from to fix???????

We might get spared but God may decide we need some shaking up. :shock: :shock:



We have been bad an we have always been spared so the money that will boost our economy will pour in from the islands when they start to buy goods, services and building materials to rebuild.

Last major hurricane that hit them was Gilbert in 1988 an the Jamaica economy don't need this money draining hurricane right now. Probably why they don't like us much. Always have to come to us for help.

An we never need them....

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby Daran » October 2nd, 2016, 7:50 am

xtech wrote:
bluefete wrote:
desifemlove wrote:i spoke to Him, and he said he created all humanity, and has no favourite country, so He doh care who get hit/lick up by earthquake, flood, or storm, and for His chirren in Trinbago not to spout that foolishness since human affairs are beneath Him..

I doubt it will turn into a hurricane, but then we've had bad storms before. it may actually boost economy due to rebuilding, fixing roads, slight damaged rooves and stuff.


And where will the money come from to fix???????

We might get spared but God may decide we need some shaking up. :shock: :shock:



We have been bad an we have always been spared so the money that will boost our economy will pour in from the islands when they start to buy goods, services and building materials to rebuild.

Last major hurricane that hit them was Gilbert in 1988 an the Jamaica economy don't need this money draining hurricane right now. Probably why they don't like us much. Always have to come to us for help.

An we never need them....


Well we do steal from them, just in the form of cultural appropriation.

Anyway latest models show it might directly hit Haiti instead.

Looks like God doh like voodoo.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby xtech » October 2nd, 2016, 12:12 pm

Matthew 2.0 forming or what?

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby redmanjp » October 2nd, 2016, 12:54 pm

Epic rain in Arima. Some lightning too

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby Morpheus » October 2nd, 2016, 1:02 pm

Rain and rumbling skies.....

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby SRASC » October 2nd, 2016, 2:42 pm

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Re: RE: Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby bluesclues » October 2nd, 2016, 2:44 pm

SRASC wrote:Image


Dhalsim hand. Major disturbance over venezuela reaching as far as trinidad from matthew.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby bluefete » October 2nd, 2016, 7:36 pm

Hope I can put this here.

Apparently, it is not only Trinbagonians who do not like to listen.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/news ... p-evacuate

McKenzie reports 30 people still on the cays, two now appealling for help to evacuate

Published:Sunday | October 2, 2016 | 6:10 PM

The Local Government Minister Desmond McKenzie is reporting that 30 people remained on the cays despite the efforts of the Jamaica Defence Force to evacuate them with at least two fishers now appealing for help to return to the mainland.

Image

But McKenzie, speaking a short while ago at a press conference on the impending Hurricane Matthew said the two, a father and son, called a family member on the mainland who contacted him pleading for help.

However, the minister said the safety of first responders should not be placed at risk for people who fail to heed evacuation warning.

"There is a point where the Government has to start and a point where the Government has to stop," McKenzie said.

The dangerous category four Hurricane Matthew is moving towards Jamaica.

On it's forecast track, the centre of Matthew is moving away from the eastern most tip of Jamaica, but the system will dump torrential rains on Jamaica.

The Head of the Meteorological Service, Evan Thompson says storm force winds are likely tonight and will peak tomorrow afternoon.

McKenzie has also issued an appeal for residents of low-lying and flood prone areas to immediately evacuate.

He says buses will be sent to Port Royal at 6 p.m and will depart at 8 p.m for the shelter at the National Arena.

According to McKenzie there is no guarantee that first responders will be able to revisit the community afterwards.

He has also highlighted Portland Cottage and Rocky Point in Clarendon; Manchioneal in Portland; and, Kintyre, Duhaney Park and New Haven in St Andrew as areas of concern.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby Morpheus » October 2nd, 2016, 8:03 pm

^^Steups he damn right....

@purple highlighted text

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby sMASH » October 3rd, 2016, 5:08 am

They made their choice. Should not have to risk other people's lives when u were well informed in good time.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby $h@dy » October 3rd, 2016, 9:07 am

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby $h@dy » October 3rd, 2016, 9:55 am

Water spout in Jamaica

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby sMASH » October 3rd, 2016, 10:04 am

The messenger of doom.

The low pressure zone to the east of the archipelago, will that pull it more east wards?

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Re: RE: Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby bluesclues » October 3rd, 2016, 1:47 pm

sMASH wrote:The messenger of doom.

The low pressure zone to the east of the archipelago, will that pull it more east wards?


That might have to do with why its been moving so slow. Before that zone grew to the size it is now, matthew was covering ground at 16mph. Since the development of that zone matthew's movement slowed to a crawl between 4-6mph. It's currently moving due north at 6mph. This because that pressure zone got dislodged from our shield but still applying the brakes. Before that, yesterday, matthew took a sudden turn southward, bounced off the north venezuelan coastline and has been moving due north/north-west since then at a very slow speed.

If the low pressure zone keeps the speed down, this means matthew would do alot more damage as it would linger over the land creating extended devastation. Seems like coriolis is taking command of the operation.. but matthew may have 2 well placed pressure zones that could tilt it more towards haiti as it heads north.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby sMASH » October 3rd, 2016, 3:28 pm

I've seen u use the term 'shield' quite a lot recently. what is it, and how does it work?

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2016

Postby redmanjp » October 3rd, 2016, 5:17 pm

Jamaica downgraded to tropical storm warning as Matthew turning back east

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