Hard Times @ Point Lisas

[The_Honourable]

Can Point Lisas Survive?

By Mariano Browne

The TT gas sector is divided into two segments the upstream sector where gas is produced and the downstream or petrochemical sector where gas is processed through Phoenix Gas Processors (PPGL) is then converted into intermediate products such as methanol and ammonia by other plants. Gas going to Atlantic’s LNG plants is supplied directly by the upstreamers. The Express in interviews with two leading players in the energy sector, Mark Loquan, NGC’s CEO and Ian Welch recently retired CEO of Nutrien have explored the issues which have bedeviled the downstream segment. These interviews and Dr. Farrells’s position paper coming after last year’s spotlight on energy have identified the difficulties which lie ahead for TT.

Mark Loquan admitted that NGC will not achieve the profitability level as in its recent past. He noted that the company is adjusting its business plans and considering a number of alternatives given the changed market conditions. He did not advocate NGC abandoning its role as aggregator or middleman. The Prime Minister has been more forceful identifying NGC as a linchpin in maximizing the revenue take from the sector.

The “Spotlight on Energy” Conference last year clearly communicated that the petrochemical sector generated more revenue for the state than the upstream market segment. Recently, the Energy Minister suggested that this has changed, noting also that the increased cost of natural gas production to the downstreamers was a fact of life to which they would have to adjust. Dr. Farrell’s paper suggested that in addition to the inadequate gas supply, the higher gas price seriously impacts profitability of the downstream market segment and threaten its survival.

Mr. Welch, who worked in the energy sector for 39 years, said the downstream sector almost collapsed due to the gas shortages which had ravaged the profitability of the downstream operators by $11 billion dollars during the acute curtailment shortages. He said while the sector is now stabilized as the gas shortage had been reduced, it needed to be made sustainable and optimised.

Welch noted that downstream sector productivity had declined relative to international benchmarks making the sector less competitive internationally. For the sector to survive, he suggested that all players “have to take haircuts and realise what value they bring to the table and, therefore, the haircut will be commensurate with the risks.” A “haircut” means that all players have to reduce profit margins and profit expectations. “Profit sharing relative to risk” is coded language (also used by BPTT) aimed at NGC suggesting that NGC’s margin is too high, and its role overstated. This will be a continuing source of conflict.

Gas has been in short supply since 2010. An adequate gas supply is the key to continuing operations, but it is once more under threat and with it, almost everything else. The sector needs 4.2 billion scufs a day to achieve optimum production. Gas output, recovered from a low of 3.3 billion scufs a day in 2015, averaged 3.6 billion in 2018, is “projected” to rise to 3.8 billion scufs in 2019 but decline by 2-300 million scufs a day in 2020 through 2021. Business understands risk but dislikes uncertainty.

Therefore, the economic growth and forex projections for 2020 and 2021 are in jeopardy as there are more risks to the downside. This explains the emphasis on accessing Venezuela’s gas fields which is almost impossible excluding a miracle, and the political risk high. Venezuela has a poor record as a reliable business partner as exemplified by the 22 cases for compensation by foreign multinationals.

The need to sustain gas production explains the recent approach to Shell. Maintaining TT’s international commercial capacity requires that the plants are reliable business partners that can deliver. The failure of the recent bid rounds could negatively impact future gas production and therefore growth. Roger Hosein writing in the Express on Sunday 28th July, noted that the economy was in “a state of long-term stagnation” and called for additional policy approaches to address the non-energy sector, the largest employer.

It took three years for the UNC fiscal incentives to bear fruit, improving exploration and production. TT is in the same position again. Even if new incentives are granted today it will take time to have effect. TT cannot borrow and spend its way out of this difficulty. Neither will praying for gas prices to increase, nor praying for change in Venezuela. Lower for longer applies to the TT economy as well and no amount of rhetoric is going to change these business issues. The upstreamers, BPTT and Shell, have the upper hand.

Source: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/can-poin ... ano-browne
(Published in Trinidad Guardian - 02/08/2019)

[Kenjo]

Gonna do a dread bump

Wow

[zoom rader]

Just great no sugar, no oil and no gas

Well done PNM

Expect more taxes comming

[De Dragon]

Ent FackStick and Co. went all over the world recently and sort out the upstreamers? Wha' happen now?

[oliverqueen]

does be asking miself if i wasting time doing a degree now? shoulda pick a skill like ac repair or electrical. spending time and money on this here cause i done inside it already. but reality is i prob aint gonna get no work with my chem eng degree in my field when i finish.

[nervewrecker]

does be asking miself if i wasting time doing a degree now? shoulda pick a skill like ac repair or electrical. spending time and money on this here cause i done inside it already. but reality is i prob aint gonna get no work with my chem eng degree in my field when i finish.

I also teach this, just saying.

[zoom rader]

does be asking miself if i wasting time doing a degree now? shoulda pick a skill like ac repair or electrical. spending time and money on this here cause i done inside it already. but reality is i prob aint gonna get no work with my chem eng degree in my field when i finish.

Just apply to be a PNM blogger on tuner.

[matr1x]

What you expect? They can't run a household, they will run a country?

[hong kong phooey]

calm down MOF have a plan : ticket drivers to make up the shortfall in revenue

[The_Honourable]

Point Lisas on the brink

Unemployment increases, businesses suffer



Es­tab­lished in cen­tral Trinidad less than a quar­ter of a cen­tu­ry ago, the Point Lisas In­dus­tri­al Es­tate re­mains the heart­beat of T&T's petro­chem­i­cal sec­tor.

How­ev­er, since the moth­balling of ma­jor petro­chem­i­cal plants on the es­tate and the shut­down of sev­er­al steel com­pa­nies, busi­ness ac­tiv­i­ties in Point Lisas and neigh­bour­ing com­mu­ni­ties have start­ed ex­pe­ri­enc­ing a down­ward spi­ral.

When Guardian Me­dia vis­it­ed the es­tate, the once-bustling Mediter­ranean Dri­ve looked de­sert­ed ex­cept for the ac­tiv­i­ties on the com­pound of Cana­di­an-based fer­tilis­er com­pa­ny, Nu­trien.



Old rust­ed trucks, a back­hoe and oth­er equip­ment stood on the com­pound of the de­funct Cen­tral Trinidad Steel Lim­it­ed (CEN­TRIN) which ter­mi­nat­ed the ser­vices of over 200 em­ploy­ees back in 2016.





The weath­ered sign be­long­ing to steel gi­ant Arcelor­Mit­tal was still up and the gates lead­ing to the steel plant and the aban­doned of­fice build­ings were shut tight.





Arcelor­Mit­tal had closed down its steel plant in March 2016, leav­ing 650 work­ers on the bread­line and since then two methanol plants Methanol Hold­ings Trinidad Ltd (MHTL) were al­so shut down, along with CEN­TRIN, Tube City IMS and Yara Trinidad's whol­ly-owned am­mo­nia plant which will be moth­balled by De­cem­ber.

Chief Ex­ec­u­tive Of­fi­cer of the Caribbean Ni­tro­gen Com­pa­ny Lim­it­ed (CNC), Jerome Dook­ie lat­er said it was un­like­ly that the com­pa­ny would be start­ing new projects in T&T as the is­lands were no longer an at­trac­tive place for petro­chem­i­cal com­pa­nies to launch new pro­cess­ing plants.

So how has this im­pact­ed on busi­ness ac­tiv­i­ties in the area?

Dou­bles ven­dor Isha Ram­char­i­tar who has been sell­ing near the es­tate for al­most 50 years said busi­ness was very slow.

"Since those plants went down, plen­ty of small busi­ness­es no longer op­er­at­ing. All in the At­lantic Plaza busi­ness­es have closed down," she said. Ram­char­i­tar said she was for­tu­nate that her cus­tomers had re­mained loy­al to her.



Enay­at Ma­ha­boob, a for­mer work­er of Seaboard Ma­rine, based in Point Lisas, said many work­ers on the es­tate had been laid off and re­hired as con­tract work­ers with no ben­e­fits.

He said four years ago he re­signed his job and start­ed to work with the Forestry Di­vi­sion.

"I re­alised there was no job sta­bil­i­ty work­ing on the es­tate. Some of my for­mer col­leagues are now work­ing un­der con­tract," Ma­ha­boob said. He not­ed that there were com­pa­nies on the es­tate which were not pay­ing NIS or Health sur­charge for work­ers.

In­side At­lantic Plaza, sev­er­al food out­lets were open but there was on­ly a trick­le of cus­tomers.



A res­i­dent of Cal­i­for­nia Avinash Ram­per­sad said a few small par­lours and food out­lets in his com­mu­ni­ty had closed down.

He said some food es­tab­lish­ments had a 50 per cent de­cline in sales since 2016.

"Many peo­ple who lost their jobs went back in­to vend­ing, gar­den­ing and work­ing taxis," he added.

At Rhon­dor's Cur­ry House, busi­ness­women Kalwitie Dhan­nas­sar said her shop was one of the few places which still sold cheap food. Un­like oth­er places which sell duck roti for $40, Dhan­nas­sar said she sold it for $25 be­cause she un­der­stood the plight of the poor.

"There are lots of food out­lets around and I try to be com­pet­i­tive by sell­ing at a low price. You can get a chick­en roti for $20 here," she added.



Dhan­nas­sar said since the Es­tate be­gan shut­ting down plants, more peo­ple have been buy­ing break­fast for $10 and eat­ing the same food for lunch.

"In­stead of buy­ing break­fast and then lunch, they buy two por­tions of break­fast and eat one of it for lunch. Oth­er peo­ple have start­ed cook­ing their own meals. I have seen at least a 50 per cent de­cline in sales," Dhan­nas­sar said.

It's a neg­a­tive rip­ple ef­fect—Re­gion­al Cham­ber

Mean­while, co­or­di­na­tor of the Con­fed­er­a­tion of Re­gion­al Cham­bers Jai Lelad­hars­ingh said for down­stream­ers the clo­sure of ma­jor plants was hav­ing a neg­a­tive rip­ple ef­fect.

"The Point Lisas In­dus­tri­al is the nerve cen­tre of cen­tral and south Trinidad and is a ma­jor con­trib­u­tor to for­eign ex­change. These or­gan­i­sa­tions give busi­ness to sup­pli­ers and con­trac­tors as well as ser­vice providers and con­sul­tants. This is what is cre­at­ing the cir­cu­lar of mon­ey in the Cou­va com­mu­ni­ty and en­vi­rons," Lelad­hars­ingh said.

Since the clo­sure of sev­er­al plants and com­pa­nies, Leled­hars­ingh said con­trac­tors and busi­ness own­ers were ex­pe­ri­enc­ing se­vere cash flow prob­lems.

"They too have been forced to lay off work­ers. Some are op­er­at­ing one-fifth of their ca­pac­i­ty and the un­em­ploy­ment in Cou­va has been grow­ing steadi­ly," Lelad­hars­ingh added.

Call­ing on the Gov­ern­ment to start en­gag­ing all stake­hold­ers with a view of pro­vid­ing a rea­son­ably priced re­li­able gas sup­ply, Lelad­hars­ingh said ne­go­ti­a­tions must no longer be se­cre­tive in na­ture.

"Be open and trans­par­ent so that every­one will un­der­stand what is be­ing of­fered to the dif­fer­ent plants in Point Lisas with re­gard to nat­ur­al gas sup­ply and pric­ing. The down­stream is find­ing it dif­fi­cult to sur­vive be­cause the price of gas has sky­rock­et­ed," Lelad­hars­ingh added.

He not­ed that if the prob­lems at Point Lisas were not ad­dressed, T&T's GDP will be im­pact­ed in a neg­a­tive way.

"It will con­tin­ue to im­pact on the earn­ings of for­eign ex­change and un­em­ploy­ment will con­tin­ue to go up. Small en­ter­pris­es may be forced to shrink and may not be able to meet bank­ing com­mit­ments. Al­ready peo­ple are hav­ing prob­lems meet­ing their pay­roll and this is a wor­ry­ing ef­fect. We need crit­i­cal play­ers to come for­ward and of­fer mean­ing­ful and sus­tain­able so­lu­tions to stem this tide," he said.

The area be­ing al­lowed to dis­in­te­grate—Cou­va Cham­ber

Pres­i­dent of the Cou­va/Point Lisas Cham­ber Ra­jball Ram­c­hand Ma­haraj said it was un­for­tu­nate that the area was be­ing al­lowed to dis­in­te­grate.

"We feel the Prime Min­is­ter, Dr Kei­th Row­ley and his col­leagues should have con­versed with tech­nocrats rather than go­ing to BP and Shell in Texas to ne­go­ti­ate. The price of gas is too high and this is what is caus­ing down­stream­ers to shut down. When NGC pays a high­er price, it fil­ters down to the down­stream," Ma­haraj said.

He said apart from eco­nom­ic stran­gu­la­tion, the Point Lisas, Cou­va and Clax­ton Bay com­mu­ni­ties are reel­ing from in­creased crime.

"Peo­ple are be­ing laid off, com­pa­nies are clos­ing and we even had two re­trenched work­ers who com­mit­ted sui­cide," Ma­haraj said.

He said the Gov­ern­ment must sit down with tech­nocrats and chart the way for­ward be­fore more com­pa­nies be­gin to close down.

Source: https://www.guardian.co.tt/news/point-l ... 1c4ef881cb

[zoom rader]

^^^ Yet still ppl voting PNM

[hydroep]

Ah hear......dem plants clothes-down — certain people benefit and unemployment gone up.

Then closer to elections, plants go open back up — beneficiaries go be raking in de cash and they go bawl how they reduce unemployment.

Me eh know nah, meh sauce does talk real chupidness when dey ready...

[zoom rader]

Ah hear......dem plants clothes-down — certain people benefit and unemployment gone up.

Then closer to elections, plants go open back up — beneficiaries go be raking in de cash and they go bawl how they reduce unemployment.

Me eh know nah, meh sauce does talk real chupidness when dey ready...

You now seeing the light bro. Glad ppl learning

Rememver PNM saved the country from a make believe resession

[rspann]

Remember , vote PNM tomorrow. Let's get it done.

[Rovin]

pee nm : running every blasted ting down into d ground while throwing d blame on kamla ...... but they still winning tomorrow & GE too

[rspann]

At least everybody happy. You see Roget pulling any manequin? You seeing any protests? We like it so.

[zoom rader]

At least everybody happy. You see Roget pulling any manequin? You seeing any protests? We like it so.

Follow the money, we know it's not 99%.

County for sale

[aaron17]

pee nm : running every blasted ting down into d ground while throwing d blame on kamla ...... but they still winning tomorrow & GE too

That is vision 2020 right day.

[gastly369]

All they need to hear is "kamla thief" and is level froth from mouth....

^^^ Yet still ppl voting PNM

[screwbash]

At least everybody happy. You see Roget pulling any manequin? You seeing any protests? We like it so.

i feel that was a setup from the get go in order to right off the debt of petrotrin and destroy the evidence of the fake oil scandal. if the owtu own the refinery now i sure it have men ezpecially roget that invest in it to get dividens for the next 5 generations. so a handful of men own that refinery under disguise, possibly even minsters involved. but this is bigger than we possibly know and hopefully if UNC win the GE they audit and see what went on in the closure and sale of the refinery.

[88sins]

Remember , vote PNM tomorrow. Let's get it done.

please let us know,

Exactly what is this "it" they want to claim they getting done?
cuz going by this current track record, they need to start undoing some of the kaka they already did

[matr1x]

This is what 1833 brought to Trinidad

[rspann]

Remember , vote PNM tomorrow. Let's get it done.

please let us know,

Exactly what is this "it" they want to claim they getting done?
cuz going by this current track record, they need to start undoing some of the kaka they already did[/q


It nah, whatever "it" shitkickers say he do.

[rspann]

He save the country from recession, he working for the country , he putting things in place, he managing with the lil money we have after Kamla teef out the treasury. You know, Dem kinda it nah. If you want you could put a sh with it.

[matr1x]

He save the country from recession, he working for the country , he putting things in place, he managing with the lil money we have after Kamla teef out the treasury. You know, Dem kinda it nah. If you want you could put a sh with it.

Seeing as how the evidence does not support that.......

[rspann]

Doh study dat. Growlers doh lie.

[zoom rader]

Doh study dat. Growlers doh lie.

True, UNC man facing law suit .

It wasn't him

[Ben_spanna]

local santa might be pon the promenade handing out rubbah slippah and crocus Juzzey dis xmas.. cause it will be dred. But have no fear everyone will find money for carnival come February-stupid population!

[The_Honourable]

Young: PM did not negotiate bad gas price for NGC

Min­is­ter in the Of­fice of the Prime Min­is­ter Stu­art Young says “it is com­plete­ly wrong to say that the Prime Min­is­ter ne­go­ti­at­ed any gas price.”

Young made the com­ment yes­ter­day in re­sponse to re­cent claims by in­di­vid­u­als he de­scribed as “arm­chair ex­perts” who have ar­gued that the Na­tion­al Gas Com­pa­ny (NGC) is hav­ing dif­fi­cul­ty pur­chas­ing gas from sup­pli­ers.

Young said NGC pur­chas­es gas main­ly from BP, Shell and EOG. He said when the Gov­ern­ment came in­to of­fice in 2015, there was in­suf­fi­cient gas in T&T and the Of­fice of the Prime Min­is­ter took a par­tic­u­lar in­ter­est in en­sur­ing the sus­tain­abil­i­ty of our gas sec­tor by re­build­ing some of the re­la­tion­ships with up­stream and down­stream sup­pli­ers.

In ad­di­tion to this, Young said NGC al­so had out­stand­ing ne­go­ti­a­tions with BP, EOG and Shell which placed them in a dif­fi­cult po­si­tion.

He said if these com­pa­nies who are up­stream sup­pli­ers had not come to a con­clud­ed gas sup­ply with NGC, it would have af­fect­ed all the big play­ers in Point Lisas.

When this road­block was hit, Young said Row­ley de­cid­ed to meet with these com­pa­nies in Hous­ton in 2017, where they held dis­cus­sions on the mat­ter but did not agree on a price.

“If NGC and BP did not agree on that gas price in­crease in Hous­ton in 2017 there would have been no more down­stream in­dus­try in Trinidad.”

Young said NGC was now pur­chas­ing gas at a high­er price, which has re­sult­ed in the gas be­ing sold at a high­er rate. He said the Gov­ern­ment has al­so been ac­cept­ing a small­er mar­gin from NGC.

“It is be­ing sug­gest­ed by these in­di­vid­u­als that it is the Prime Min­is­ter who ne­go­ti­at­ed a bad price for gas. That is sim­ply not true.”

Young said he al­so re­ceived good news yes­ter­day, as all of the share­hold­ers of At­lantic LNG have agreed to con­tin­ue for the next five years the life of Train One.

Source: https://www.guardian.co.tt/news/young-p ... e6e8c12c05

[zoom rader]

Young: PM did not negotiate bad gas price for NGC

Min­is­ter in the Of­fice of the Prime Min­is­ter Stu­art Young says “it is com­plete­ly wrong to say that the Prime Min­is­ter ne­go­ti­at­ed any gas price.”

Young made the com­ment yes­ter­day in re­sponse to re­cent claims by in­di­vid­u­als he de­scribed as “arm­chair ex­perts” who have ar­gued that the Na­tion­al Gas Com­pa­ny (NGC) is hav­ing dif­fi­cul­ty pur­chas­ing gas from sup­pli­ers.

Young said NGC pur­chas­es gas main­ly from BP, Shell and EOG. He said when the Gov­ern­ment came in­to of­fice in 2015, there was in­suf­fi­cient gas in T&T and the Of­fice of the Prime Min­is­ter took a par­tic­u­lar in­ter­est in en­sur­ing the sus­tain­abil­i­ty of our gas sec­tor by re­build­ing some of the re­la­tion­ships with up­stream and down­stream sup­pli­ers.

In ad­di­tion to this, Young said NGC al­so had out­stand­ing ne­go­ti­a­tions with BP, EOG and Shell which placed them in a dif­fi­cult po­si­tion.

He said if these com­pa­nies who are up­stream sup­pli­ers had not come to a con­clud­ed gas sup­ply with NGC, it would have af­fect­ed all the big play­ers in Point Lisas.

When this road­block was hit, Young said Row­ley de­cid­ed to meet with these com­pa­nies in Hous­ton in 2017, where they held dis­cus­sions on the mat­ter but did not agree on a price.

“If NGC and BP did not agree on that gas price in­crease in Hous­ton in 2017 there would have been no more down­stream in­dus­try in Trinidad.”

Young said NGC was now pur­chas­ing gas at a high­er price, which has re­sult­ed in the gas be­ing sold at a high­er rate. He said the Gov­ern­ment has al­so been ac­cept­ing a small­er mar­gin from NGC.

“It is be­ing sug­gest­ed by these in­di­vid­u­als that it is the Prime Min­is­ter who ne­go­ti­at­ed a bad price for gas. That is sim­ply not true.”

Young said he al­so re­ceived good news yes­ter­day, as all of the share­hold­ers of At­lantic LNG have agreed to con­tin­ue for the next five years the life of Train One.

Source: https://www.guardian.co.tt/news/young-p ... e6e8c12c05

All we hear is when they came into office 2015, which means blame Kamala.

No wonder why these kunts loosing support day by day