2010 and 2011 Tropical weather discussion

[MBC Autotronix]

http://metoffice.gov.tt/news/article.aspx?id=8443

NEW IMPLEMENTATION FOR THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services
will issue watches and warnings for tropical
storm and hurricane 12 HOURS earlier than have
been done in previous years for systems more
than 48 hours away. Advancements in track
forecasts and information technology have made
it possible for weather forecasters to provide
this greater lead time.

Tropical storm watches will therefore be issued
to citizens of Trinidad and Tobago when it is
possible for tropical storm conditions to affect
our islands 48 hours (instead of 36 hours) before
it starts to do so. Tropical Warnings will be
issued if the threat by the tropical storm/
conditions is imminent and are expected within
36 hours (instead of 24 hours).

Similar increases in lead-time will apply to
hurricane watches and warnings. The hurricane
watches and warnings will generally be timed
to provide 48 and 36 hours prior notice,
respectively, before the onset of hurricane
force conditions.

Citizens are advised however of the possibility
of systems developing into a tropical storm or
hurricane within 48 hours, in which case it will
be understood that it is in very close proximity
to Trinidad and Tobago. Watches and or Warnings
in these cases therefore will be immediately
dispatched within the 48 and or 36 hour
time-frame.Only in these rare cases will the
lead time be expected to apply contrary to the
new changes!

The additional lead time -12 hours- is meant
to assist citizens trigger emergency procedures
and complete them before worse case scenarios
occur. Further, the 12 hour time window is
expected to facilitate critical organizations
in firmly effecting large scale mobilization for
essential responses. This will include Emergency
Managers, Local Government Bodies and the
Ministries of Works and Public Utilities in the
main. Evacuation procedures particularly those
of the off-shore platforms or small highly
vulnerable islands off the north-west coasts are
anticipated to be comfortably executed given the
new time-frame.

Coastline communities/population asked to note
carefully that heights and intensities of storm
surges will NO longer be linked to the
Intensities of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane.
In other words, any Tropical Storm or Hurricane
is capable of producing any height of Storm
Surge with any Intensity.These changes have gone
into effect for the 2010 hurricane season, which
began on June 1 for the Atlantic Basin.

Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services

[MISHI]

Ok people it may be a little early to call it, but there is a potential threat to our east at this moment. System is moving westward and is showing signs of organisation that could cause it to become a depression in a few days or sooner.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

^ MISHI, that quote is based on the smaller system already over central america
the one you suggested might be a threat is this one:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD
10 KT OR LESS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 9N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N
TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND
34W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

the projection models put it far north of us though

[boxdoctor]

This looks serious!. http://www.stormpulse.com/

[MISHI]

^ MISHI, that quote is based on the smaller system already over central america
the one you suggested might be a threat is this one:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD
10 KT OR LESS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 9N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N
TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND
34W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

the projection models put it far north of us though

Yeah sorry about that I thought I highlighted the correct one (which was # 2)

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

cool, just rubbing it in lol

this one might look serious folks but each time a projection model is done up it shows as tracking even further north.

the only way I think this one will affect us if it intensifies is tha we will get some hot sunny weather was it pulls all the bad weather away from us.

[SUPAstarr]

TD 4 is in effect

WTNT34 KNHC 021435
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 41.1W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR. A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[JoKeR1980]

rell fleckin rain and wind in central now

[toyolink]

Heavy showers with some wind and lightening in mc bean, couva.
The ground is saturated and can absorb no more.
No weather to be on the road in central.

[teems1]

real lightning/thunder/rain in sando

[JoKeR1980]

dis kinah heavy constant rain + saturated ground = flood iwmc!

[hustla_ambition101]

hot sun in Arima....

[KURMAman]

god ting kamla clean we drains!

[toyolink]

Heavy rains have give way to constant drizzle now
in mc bean, couva.The damage for the day has been
done.Run-off effects will be as per usual.
I could do with some Arima weather for 2 days.
Any afternoon showers from here on in will
continue the flooding circle.
Vehicles washed detailed and parked.Older hilux
put into service.

[cressida_override]

Heavy rain in Sangre grande since 1pm

[Rahtid]

flood in freeport,chase village, part of the hiway has flood, arouca has plenty water,flood later tho

[SUPAstarr]

Tropical Storm Colin in da hizzle

[SUPAstarr]

[hustla_ambition101]

bump for morning rain

[cinco]

[SR]

prefer the local pic but sombody had issues with it

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

^ local pic?

[MISHI]

who eric?

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

oh that local pic!

Wednesday 04th of August 2010
ISSUED AT:07:11AM


INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) AFFECTING
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.



Currently, Trinidad and to a lesser extent Tobago
is being affected by the Inter-Tropical
Convergence Zone which is producing cloudy to
overcast skies with occasional showers and
isolated thundershowers.

The presence of the ITCZ over our islands will
continue to trigger atmospheric instability which
could result in episodes of heavy showers and
thundershowers at any time over the next 4 to 6
hours. These showery and thundery spells will
produce street/flash flooding and accompanying
gusty winds.



Citizens are advised to be vigilant and cautious
given the weather conditions, both current and
forecast, as they conduct their daily activities.
All necessary measures must be adopted to preserve
life and property. Be alert to any discharges from
thunderstorm activity.


We wish to underscore that at this time Trinidad
and Tobago is NOT under any Tropical Storm
threat, Watch or Warning.


The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services is
closely monitoring this weather situation and will
issue another bulletin if the situation warrants.

O. Lovell
Meteorologist

[mitsu_chick941]

rain falling, real hard

[oxidation]

rain falling, real hard

where

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

Bulletin#

Date: Friday 06th of August 2010
ISSUED AT:12:13PM

LOCALISED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS , AFFECTING WEATHER
OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

Currently, Trinidad and to a lesser extent
Tobago is being affected by local unstable
conditions which are producing cloudy to overcast
skies with occasional showers and isolated
thundershowers.


These conditions are expected to periodically
continue for the next 4 to 6 hours. The showery
and thundery spells will produce street/flash
flooding and accompanying gusty winds.


Citizens are advised to be vigilant and cautious
given the weather conditions, both current and
forecast, as they conduct their daily activities.
All necessary measures must be adopted to preserve
life and property. Be alert to any discharges from
thunderstorm activity.


We wish to underscore that at this time Trinidad
and Tobago is NOT under any Tropical Storm
threat, Watch or Warning.


The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services is
closely monitoring this weather situation and will
issue another bulletin if the situation warrants.

A. Alexander
Meteorologist

[MBC Autotronix]

rraaaaaaaaaaaaaaaain

[Back2Studio]

wheeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrre?

[Rahtid]

rain,thunder and lightning,,,,

recipe for flooding again