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The party now start

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bluesclues
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Re: The party now start

Postby bluesclues » August 22nd, 2016, 11:49 am

^ well what you want me to do? Even though i never vote for any party on the constitution that i will observe them in action in power before deciding who to dip my finger for. I willing to accept some blame in saying 'we'. But we all know who it is running this country for the last 50 years, who is responsible for the last 30, and who in charge of the current 5 year tenure.

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Re: The party now start

Postby Trinispougla » August 22nd, 2016, 12:06 pm

BANzai Rastafarai wrote:
The current oil price is 4.67 dollars per barrel. 60 dollars per barrel is generally regarded as a price which would be able to fund infrastructural and development projects.60 dollars is the price both finance ministers were hoping it rose to. That is not far fetched and this is not venezuela, we are not just producing oil. Trinidad is one of the leaders in production of methanol and urea plus we have signed an mou with suriname for a wood factory, suriname provides the wood, trinidad provides the adhesives made from hydrocarbons. Construction is supposed to start later in the year


Oil struggling to cross $51 with the Iran/Saudis stand-off...and China forcing ppl hand so..yeah... good luck with that. US methanol spot prices have been under pressure lately from weakness in crude oil, as well as ample supplies. Sources said they expect this trend to continue for the remainder of the summer. Export demand has also cooled, after China became a leading importer of US material in the first half of 2016.

but I hear what you trying to imply.

Yeah, that an oil price of 80 dollars per barrel is not necessary for the country to livee. 60 dollars can give us the wiggle room in the short to medium term and that is not an unrealistic expectation. 80 dollars or maybe even 70 dollars is unrealistic for the time being

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Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby bluesclues » August 22nd, 2016, 12:08 pm

eliteauto wrote:devaluation offers tremendous opportunity, one long write up by the OP that basically tries to summarise current events. Seems like armchair commentators of the day who talk a lot of fluff with no solutions discussed. Was this just a klaxon call to panic OP?


I wish u would be more detailed.

However, if ur thinking china... then i wont agree.

China has good reasons including a surplus manufacturing sector for global exports for devaluing their dollar. Their goal is in capturing larger market share and a larger percentage of their currency in circulation as a world reserve currency.

Which of our industries produce surplus enough for significant revenues? Besides oil and gas we have nothing. or maybe u can enlighten me.

Other than that i dont see what 'tremendous' opportunities u could be talking about.

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Re: The party now start

Postby Trinispougla » August 22nd, 2016, 12:11 pm

bluesclues wrote:^ well what you want me to do? Even though i never vote for any party on the constitution that i will observe them in action in power before deciding who to dip my finger for. I willing to accept some blame in saying 'we'. But we all know who it is running this country for the last 50 years, who is responsible for the last 30, and who in charge of the current 5 year tenure.

Bluesclues de way you gettin on an outsider would think that TT is congo or somalia bro

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Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby Trinispougla » August 22nd, 2016, 12:17 pm

bluesclues wrote:
eliteauto wrote:devaluation offers tremendous opportunity, one long write up by the OP that basically tries to summarise current events. Seems like armchair commentators of the day who talk a lot of fluff with no solutions discussed. Was this just a klaxon call to panic OP?


I wish u would be more detailed.

However, if ur thinking china... then i wont agree.

China has good reasons including a surplus manufacturing sector for global exports for devaluing their dollar. Their goal is in capturing larger market share and a larger percentage of their currency in circulation as a world reserve currency.

Which of our industries produce surplus enough for significant revenues? Besides oil and gas we have nothing. or maybe u can enlighten me.

Other than that i dont see what 'tremendous' opportunities u could be talking about.

So how come tcl virtually own the caribbean? why nfm has virtually own flour in jamaica despite the trouble it's in. Trinidad has the most developed manufacturing sector in the caribbean, so much so that jamaicans erroneously believe that we dominate because of oil and gas without considering the automation we use heavily in production

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Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby bluesclues » August 22nd, 2016, 12:19 pm

Trinispougla wrote:
bluesclues wrote:^ well what you want me to do? Even though i never vote for any party on the constitution that i will observe them in action in power before deciding who to dip my finger for. I willing to accept some blame in saying 'we'. But we all know who it is running this country for the last 50 years, who is responsible for the last 30, and who in charge of the current 5 year tenure.

Bluesclues de way you gettin on an outsider would think that TT is congo or somalia bro


Pal right next door to you in an oil rich nation there are droves of citizens eating garbage.. literally eating garbage from dumpsters outside fastfood joints and resturaunts. Ppl who once had jobs, and homes and taking care of their families are now fighting for half eaten burgers and robbing delivery trucks.

Isnt it mismanagement at the highest levels that got them there? Isnt it improper allocation and planning? Isnt it because of a lack of contingencies? Isnt it because of poor or weak foreign investment policy? Isnt it, because of a lack of access to foreign currency leading to a reduction of imports and loss of jobs?

U think we immune? Im sure they thought so too.

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Re: The party now start

Postby Trinispougla » August 22nd, 2016, 12:25 pm

Pal u next to a bankrupt nation that never entered into a loaning areement. AS I SAID, JAMAICA DONT HAVE A RED CENT BUT THE COUNTRY CAN FUNCTION, because of the loans they are involved in. Venezuela going it alone to their people's detriment

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Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby teems1 » August 22nd, 2016, 12:58 pm

bluesclues wrote:
But this is the mindset that cause the whole thing in the first place dont u see?? Why did we have to panic IN THE FIRST PLACE?? With all the money we generate over the years, to being labelled, 'the richest country in the caribbean'. What did we do with our 'riches'? Ill tell u what we did.

We ignored the public appeals for diversification when we had the investment power. We called our citizenry and their suggestions 'armchair econmists' and disregarded their input calling it doom and gloom. And you want to continue down that same road? The road to panic when shtf.


So you want the government to invest in what? The first thing Trinis parrot is agriculture but fail to remember that Caroni ran at a loss for years and was never going to be profitable no matter how much $ was thrown at it.

You want them to invest in infrastructure for what? A local Hollywood or Silicon Valley or look into renewable energy or medical/regular tourism? Trinis don't know how to run a startup and any money invested by the government would disappear into the hands of corrupt contractors and in the end nothing is gained.

Didn't you read the papers last week. 50% of Trinis failed Basic CXC Mathematics. If corruption, nepotism and incompetence were CXC subjects we'd probably excel.

It's time to accept the fact that Trinis overestimate their mental prowess on the world scale. On average we are a dunce nation and our only value to the outside world is in the ground below us in the form of hydrocarbons.

All you can do is try to insulate yourselves and families as best as possible from the general population. Hence the need for gated communities, prestige schools etc.

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Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby Trinispougla » August 22nd, 2016, 1:02 pm

teems1 wrote:
bluesclues wrote:
But this is the mindset that cause the whole thing in the first place dont u see?? Why did we have to panic IN THE FIRST PLACE?? With all the money we generate over the years, to being labelled, 'the richest country in the caribbean'. What did we do with our 'riches'? Ill tell u what we did.

We ignored the public appeals for diversification when we had the investment power. We called our citizenry and their suggestions 'armchair econmists' and disregarded their input calling it doom and gloom. And you want to continue down that same road? The road to panic when shtf.


So you want the government to invest in what? The first thing Trinis parrot is agriculture but fail to remember that Caroni ran at a loss for years and was never going to be profitable no matter how much $ was thrown at it.

You want them to invest in infrastructure for what? A local Hollywood or Silicon Valley or look into renewable energy or medical/regular tourism? Trinis don't know how to run a startup and any money invested by the government would disappear into the hands of corrupt contractors and in the end nothing is gained.

Didn't you read the papers last week. 50% of Trinis failed Basic CXC Mathematics. If corruption, nepotism and incompetence were CXC subjects we'd probably excel.

It's time to accept the fact that Trinis overestimate their mental prowess on the world scale. On average we are a dunce nation and our only value to the outside world is in the ground below us in the form of hydrocarbons.

All you can do is try to insulate yourselves and families as best as possible from the general population. Hence the need for gated communities, prestige schools etc.

HAHAHA, we not dunce, the education system is a mess though, teachers at the heart of it. Female teachers is the section i would heavily focus on,. They come to school with a million and one issues usually pertaining to man, either pops or their mates. I say put them on contract and make regular assessments

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Re: The party now start

Postby Country_Bookie » August 22nd, 2016, 1:07 pm

I will always be amazed how ppl prefer to rely on rumour and hearsay than rely on the cold hard facts. Where does OP get the 33% contraction in GDP from?
Our economy is an energy based economy. Not only are we affected by prices, but also by our level of production. Our production has declined this year, but it's nowhere near 33%. Have a read at the document below:

http://www.energy.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/MEEI-Consolidated-Monthly-Bulletins_January-June-2016-.pdf

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Re: The party now start

Postby racedriverpro » August 22nd, 2016, 1:21 pm

^^^ why read? we have bluesclues...no thanks

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby bluesclues » August 22nd, 2016, 1:31 pm

Trinispougla wrote:
bluesclues wrote:
eliteauto wrote:devaluation offers tremendous opportunity, one long write up by the OP that basically tries to summarise current events. Seems like armchair commentators of the day who talk a lot of fluff with no solutions discussed. Was this just a klaxon call to panic OP?


I wish u would be more detailed.

However, if ur thinking china... then i wont agree.

China has good reasons including a surplus manufacturing sector for global exports for devaluing their dollar. Their goal is in capturing larger market share and a larger percentage of their currency in circulation as a world reserve currency.

Which of our industries produce surplus enough for significant revenues? Besides oil and gas we have nothing. or maybe u can enlighten me.

Other than that i dont see what 'tremendous' opportunities u could be talking about.

So how come tcl virtually own the caribbean? why nfm has virtually own flour in jamaica despite the trouble it's in. Trinidad has the most developed manufacturing sector in the caribbean, so much so that jamaicans erroneously believe that we dominate because of oil and gas without considering the automation we use heavily in production


Production rates.

In oil gas it is reported that production levels are declining significantly each year for the past 10 years.

Regarding tcl in jamaica. Tcl actually hasnt increased. In 2014 tcl reported it's highest revenues of 2.1billion, largely due to the increase of the cement price. Its revenues increased by 172million from 2013, But they recorded a loss of 136million and after tax profits were declining. In 2015 they entered a debt restructuring program and this year are reporting 'an increase of 426million to the same 2.1billion. Because in 2015 revenues were lower.

So our actual revenues from tcl hasnt increased beyond 2.1billion. Looking at 2010 to 2016 it can be seen that tcl revenues rise one year and fall the next year, 2013 decline, 2014 rise, 2015 decline, 2016 rise. But never crossing 2.1billion. But it is good that this year they are reporting profit under the debt restructuring plan they began in 2015. Let us hope it keeps up and they stay out of the red, so the country can actually benefit from the increased volume of sales and prices.

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Re: The party now start

Postby Trinispougla » August 22nd, 2016, 1:44 pm

I didnt mention numbers. i simply meant that TCL(Trinidad Cement Limited) owns Jamaica Caribbean Cement Company Limited (CCCL) and that NFM is the leading suplier of flour in the country, hence when the boycott happened, rowly had to go and offer a peace offering. Trinidad did not build these companies, they bought them over through the strength of TT manufacturing

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Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby bluesclues » August 22nd, 2016, 2:22 pm

Trinispougla wrote:I didnt mention numbers. i simply meant that TCL(Trinidad Cement Limited) owns Jamaica Caribbean Cement Company Limited (CCCL) and that NFM is the leading suplier of flour in the country, hence when the boycott happened, rowly had to go and offer a peace offering. Trinidad did not build these companies, they bought them over through the strength of TT manufacturing


The numbers matter to show growth. Because of the depreciating jamaican dollar they record higher operating costs that erode away the profits. If we're talking growth and expansion, then the money should be expanding too not so? If that not growing, what is the point?

It come like u boasting u wukking for a big 50k a month salary, but after tax your takehome is really $2000. 2billion in revenues for 50million takehome isnt going to wean us of our oil-dependency. Take home from these needs to be 2billion after tax. Whatever markets or resources we facilitate needs to collectively target a 5-10bn+ dollar contribution to our annual budget from exports. That will offset our local demand for foreign currency and imports which sits on average between 2.5 and 4billion usd annually. And even give us some extra change to play with.

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Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby Dizzy28 » August 22nd, 2016, 3:23 pm

bluesclues wrote:
Trinispougla wrote:I didnt mention numbers. i simply meant that TCL(Trinidad Cement Limited) owns Jamaica Caribbean Cement Company Limited (CCCL) and that NFM is the leading suplier of flour in the country, hence when the boycott happened, rowly had to go and offer a peace offering. Trinidad did not build these companies, they bought them over through the strength of TT manufacturing


The numbers matter to show growth. Because of the depreciating jamaican dollar they record higher operating costs that erode away the profits. If we're talking growth and expansion, then the money should be expanding too not so? If that not growing, what is the point?

It come like u boasting u wukking for a big 50k a month salary, but after tax your takehome is really $2000. 2billion in revenues for 50million takehome isnt going to wean us of our oil-dependency. Take home from these needs to be 2billion after tax. Whatever markets or resources we facilitate needs to collectively target a 5-10bn+ dollar contribution to our annual budget from exports. That will offset our local demand for foreign currency and imports which sits on average between 2.5 and 4billion usd annually. And even give us some extra change to play with.


Two billion in revenues meant local suppliers were involved, labour was paid, duties and taxes paid on imports, service contratcors were involved. The benefit to the country would be more than just the profit.

And you are aware that TCL is not GORTT owned right? It seems you are speaking as if they are in some of your earlier posts.

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Re: The party now start

Postby Trinispougla » August 22nd, 2016, 3:31 pm

I am aware of that which is why i said manufacturers. The was a period in the 80s when jamaica was importing cement from trinidad, that was at the height of he first imf programme. What i was getting at was the strength of manufacturing in TT allowed tcl to but jamaica's only cement company. I've been trying to emphasize this point for a while. I'll give you an example. read this
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/business ... ad_7765663

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Re: The party now start

Postby Dizzy28 » August 22nd, 2016, 3:43 pm

Trinispougla wrote:I am aware of that which is why i said manufacturers. The was a period in the 80s when jamaica was importing cement from trinidad, that was at the height of he first imf programme. What i was getting at was the strength of manufacturing in TT allowed tcl to but jamaica's only cement company. I've been trying to emphasize this point for a while. I'll give you an example. read this
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/business ... ad_7765663


I believe in the Manufacturing sector. No need to sell this to me.
With the opening up of Cuba Trinidad and Tobago should be focused on how do we get our manufactured goods into that market of 11m people. There is some problems in that Cuba has asked for some rework on the CARICOM/Cuba trade agreement where they have requested preferential treatment for 85 tariff line items from Cuba into Caricom. Included in this are agricultural goods, cement, cigars, cigarettes, seats and beer. Some of our largest manufacturers should be concerned by those items.

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Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby Redman » August 22nd, 2016, 4:01 pm

bluesclues wrote:
Redman wrote:
We need to build something that can completely replace oil and keep the country running if it had to operate on its own. When we have that, i will feel comfortable that my government is working for me.


Like what?

Saying what you think we need isnt the same as providing ideas.

So make 3 suggestions on what to do...
Please answer this question
If I BluesClues had full power I would..

1)
2)
3)


Keep it to 3 single line sentences.


Oil-is here for a long time and will continue to be vital to economic activity.
Alternative energy solves provides some of the solutions for some of the uses of oil.
So there will be a migration ....but adoption is a sticky challenging process that is impacted by multiple factors.

Lower oil prices slow reduce the incentive to use/develop/find other sources.

So we should deepen our involvement in the process-to be able to export knowledge,labor services while adopting new tech to reduce the cost of production.

and WHILE we deepening our involvement we doing other things with the immediate return on investment..That is simple diversification plan.


If i bluesclues had full power..... 'i would state it on the podium and not before'

But yes i can.. we can... do just what im speaking about. I have the solutions and yes i already know what im talking about. I just do not wish to reveal it because frankly, i dont trust the competence of anyone else but myself to implement these systems, policies and contingencies to make trinidad a much more resilient and thriving economy.

So am i going to publish my ideas publicly for pnm to take, adapt to themselves and screwup in the longrun? No. Besides, id have to teach them too much when i can just do it myself and get it done right.


1 usd drainage.... fixed
2 export revenues... fixed(major increase)
3. Low level employment, unemployment and government assistance programs... fixed
4 foreign investment interest... fixed
5 tourism sector.... fixed
6 Foreign investment policy... fixed

Just some vague clues to the areas ive been looking at for 15 years and my confidence that not only are they solved issues, but issues that will start to see turnaround, pretty much immediately after i implement the required solutions.



Like yuh loss count between 1 and 3?
Please connect the dots between the above response ...and the below resume.


Self employed with multiple streams of income and also a daytrader.

Basically, retired from the local labour force about 3-4 years now at age 30. I repair computers/laptops, phones, tablets, researcher, typist, networking and networking security, hacking and cybersecurity, sales, gardening, outsourcing. And other stuff that pulls a dollar when the day come. Also im a writer with plans to publish a few books ranging from math and science, to novels and spirituality some time in the future.



Cuz what youve said here -in addition to the experience working in the UK 'energy and financial sectors' is that your value proposition is 'Despite my resume having NOTHING indicating that I have the ability to do so....trust me I could solve all yuh problems....ONCE yuh pay $19.99 plus shipping and handling'.
Call now operators are standing by.

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby bluesclues » August 22nd, 2016, 4:09 pm

Dizzy28 wrote:
And you are aware that TCL is not GORTT owned right? It seems you are speaking as if they are in some of your earlier posts.


Yes i know it is a private company, but when they bring the profits to trinidad the government will tax them on their earnings not so? So the more profits they bring across the water the more the government can collect through tax and have at it's disposal.

Which is why again tcl doesnt make a good example because the government itself is who needs to have that takehome of 2bn-10bn EXTRA with the decline in oil revenues and its contribution to the budget which has declined from 50% to 20% and at a time when trinidad entered a deficit in 2008 during the economic downturn.

So we are talking about government programmes that must target markets to make up an extra10bn in government received export revenues/profits annually. Nfm and tcl only generating a few million dollars. That is all they bringing home to trinidad to be taxed. At that rate of return they are not worth investing in for further expansion until they can show they can generate steady profit over a period of years. Which means they should be able to run without government assistance and expand with their own profits. Both claim to be getting their house in order so we will see what kind of figures they will generate over the next five years.. but government really shouldve been exploring any and all avenues we can build on or create for extra export revenues 10+ years now. This is real last minute ting.

Mention tcl when they bringing 2bn to be taxed. Mention nfm when their revenues is counted in usd not ttd. Expand the manufacturing to bring home money not to say 'look how big i is i all over the place'.

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Re: The party now start

Postby Redman » August 22nd, 2016, 4:13 pm

they are not worth investing in for further expansion until they can show they can generate steady profit over a period of years.


And do you meet this acid test???

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Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby bluesclues » August 22nd, 2016, 4:20 pm

Redman wrote:
they are not worth investing in for further expansion until they can show they can generate steady profit over a period of years.


And do you meet this acid test???


The statistical data speaks for itself. The cost of operation in foreign suffers hampered profits and negative growth due to various economic factors and expenses, like paying their foreign employees and taxes which cuts so deep into their local budgetary contribution that they exist in debt. Arcelor mittal closed its local steel production for that very reason.

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Re: The party now start

Postby Redman » August 22nd, 2016, 4:27 pm

So now that youve said what you wanted to say ...answer the question..

You said this about TCL

they are not worth investing in for further expansion until they can show they can generate steady profit over a period of years.


Does BluesClues meet this criteria??
If so show how you substantiate the trust you would be asking any one for...

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Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby bluesclues » August 22nd, 2016, 4:46 pm

Redman wrote:So now that youve said what you wanted to say ...answer the question..

You said this about TCL

they are not worth investing in for further expansion until they can show they can generate steady profit over a period of years.


Does BluesClues meet this criteria??
If so show how you substantiate the trust you would be asking any one for...


Its the only criteria i know how to meet. Excellence. But previously i was simply denying that it's an acid test. It is not harsh in any way. U want investors? Well investors like to see growth. Grwth comes from good management. Noone wants to invest in a company that is poorly managed. Investors dont invext in companies to 'save' them. They invest in companies that generate growth through good management so they can get a piece of that pie. I wouldnt invest taxpayer money into a struggling company. Id invest in one that winning and then take from the profits and help the struggling company if anything. But we not giving away money to private companies who dont know how to manage their business, stay competitive and keep their profit margins high.

That is just basic common sense in business and leadership that is 'for the people'. The criteria i have to meet is in said leadership, thinking and decision making. Hardly in your 'acid test'. Regarding investment and reading markets tho.. a really good track record of steady profit one direction numbers. So yes i would pass such an acid test myself without a stutter.

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Re: The party now start

Postby DVSTT » August 22nd, 2016, 6:51 pm

I saw a lot of persons mention foreign investors hopping aboard as the dollar depreciates, but what impact would the rampant crime, and corruption have on investor confidence? What about the unions, Roget and company? In the past persons who live in areas where developments are taking place saw it fit to impede works til they were hired, how has this affected investor confidence? Are we really that poised to attract foreign investment with a slipping dollar?

Also, what was our oil production like in the 80s as compared to now? Is our output more now due to new equipment acquisition, or less due to wear and tear and lack of maintenance over the years?

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Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby bluesclues » August 22nd, 2016, 10:47 pm

DVSTT wrote:
Also, what was our oil production like in the 80s as compared to now? Is our output more now due to new equipment acquisition, or less due to wear and tear and lack of maintenance over the years?


Decline.

in 1980 our oil production rates are recorded at 240,000 barrels per day or bpd. Since then, each year has seen a steady decline in production to now where we are producing 70-80,000 bpd.

There are some technicalities in the current structure. First off, 'production' is a tricky and misleading word to many. Since one would assume we were doing our drilling and exploration. However, this aspect has been hired out to foreign investor companies who claim to take the risk of investing in exploration where they may not find anything. So the government basically buys the oil from them as they bring it up from the ground. Then we process it into various petroleum products for local use and export.

So as it is we have to depend on these companies rate of discovery and extraction, and that has been declining. This was noted since early 2000s when it was noted that production rates fell sharply in 1994 and have been falling since. Prompting some to announce that we may soon run out of oil. There was alot of nationwide discussion about it at the time. Some saw the 'less oil = higher price' angle , while others saw the 'no oil = massive decline in export revenues' angle and wanted government to take action through diversification to increase exports in other sectors since that time.

The rest again has to do with management at petrotrin as well as the exploration companies who were paying out big bonuses while oil was over $80. This all came to light after 2008's global economic downturn. None of these companies planned for a rainy day. And instead reported high expenses eroding their profits. Expenses which included big bonuses for company execs. But which ultimately reduced the amount of taxes they were to pay to the government. Basically they found a way to use government investment to increase revenues, and then blow most of it before the government could make it's claim to it's return on investment.

Its going on in all these big companies. For some reason, management at tcl, nfm, petrotrin to name just a few would always suffer reduced profits due to 'expenses' whenever sales volume increased. So we never saw the money. Why? Dont ask me how and why, but only in trinidad, prices and sales volume could rise and ur company still reporting declining profits from previous years. There is always some expense that comes up that 'coincidentally' swallows up the extra profits we were supposed to be recording.

So now we in a situation where oil which used to contribute to 80% of our national budget. now only contributes 20% due to steady price and production rate decline since the 80s. And wastage when oil was recently over $80 a barrel. Assisted by manning's 2020 vision which managed inflation rates into double digits and the 2008 downturn which moved trinidad from a surplus budget into deficit territory as the government continued to attempt to stimulate the ecnomy with large development projects by borrowing. Then hart and duprey finish we off and leave the country.

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Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby Trinispougla » August 22nd, 2016, 11:41 pm

bluesclues wrote:
DVSTT wrote:
Also, what was our oil production like in the 80s as compared to now? Is our output more now due to new equipment acquisition, or less due to wear and tear and lack of maintenance over the years?


Decline.

in 1980 our oil production rates are recorded at 240,000 barrels per day or bpd. Since then, each year has seen a steady decline in production to now where we are producing 70-80,000 bpd.

There are some technicalities in the current structure. First off, 'production' is a tricky and misleading word to many. Since one would assume we were doing our drilling and exploration. However, this aspect has been hired out to foreign investor companies who claim to take the risk of investing in exploration where they may not find anything. So the government basically buys the oil from them as they bring it up from the ground. Then we process it into various petroleum products for local use and export.

So as it is we have to depend on these companies rate of discovery and extraction, and that has been declining. This was noted since early 2000s when it was noted that production rates fell sharply in 1994 and have been falling since. Prompting some to announce that we may soon run out of oil. There was alot of nationwide discussion about it at the time. Some saw the 'less oil = higher price' angle , while others saw the 'no oil = massive decline in export revenues' angle and wanted government to take action through diversification to increase exports in other sectors since that time.

The rest again has to do with management at petrotrin as well as the exploration companies who were paying out big bonuses while oil was over $80. This all came to light after 2008's global economic downturn. None of these companies planned for a rainy day. And instead reported high expenses eroding their profits. Expenses which included big bonuses for company execs. But which ultimately reduced the amount of taxes they were to pay to the government. Basically they found a way to use government investment to increase revenues, and then blow most of it before the government could make it's claim to it's return on investment.

Its going on in all these big companies. For some reason, management at tcl, nfm, petrotrin to name just a few would always suffer reduced profits due to 'expenses' whenever sales volume increased. So we never saw the money. Why? Dont ask me how and why, but only in trinidad, prices and sales volume could rise and ur company still reporting declining profits from previous years. There is always some expense that comes up that 'coincidentally' swallows up the extra profits we were supposed to be recording.

So now we in a situation where oil which used to contribute to 80% of our national budget. now only contributes 20% due to steady price and production rate decline since the 80s. And wastage when oil was recently over $80 a barrel. Assisted by manning's 2020 vision which managed inflation rates into double digits and the 2008 downturn which moved trinidad from a surplus budget into deficit territory as the government continued to attempt to stimulate the ecnomy with large development projects by borrowing. Then hart and duprey finish we off and leave the country.

Firstly, Bluesclues, the reason oil production fell was because the commodity of Natural gas was and is the bedrock of our economy, this started in the late 1970s and went on steroids in 1993 when Manning monetized our gas fields which took us out of the recession and brought a host of companies to the industrial estate. Oil production is low because it is not as big a priority as hydrocarbons. Secondly, petroleum(oil, hydrocarbons etc) actually contributes 45% of gdp, not 20%. Thirdly, oil production rose to a high in Jan 2005, so it is incorrect to say that oil production has been falling since the 80s. See graph
https://www.google.tt/search?ei=F8G7V8q ... LcoY3mM%3A
It would be more correct to say that oil production has declined consistently since the July 2006, at least in its current dispensation.This is because you are looking at two different periods, when oil was king and when gas was king.And for you to mention duprey and hart is strange. The country passed through billions of dollars in the past 5-10 years so much so that the last government could afford to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on needed infrastructure. If oil prices had not dipped this conversation would be quite irrelevant. As I said, the fact is that no government, neither this one or the last, in fact no government anywhere knew the effect shale oil and gas would have on the market. The effect those bonuses have on the economy is minute, almost inconsequential because it is not a large amount of people your dealing with. Fourthly, you cannot say that multinationals are taking advantage of the country. BP is staying in the country despite the downturn and has already found a field off mayaro. Saying that they are spending all the money before the government can access the funds is resorting to innuendo and bacchanal, you have no evidence of that except with one company, Accelor Mitral who is no longer here. BP and BHP have the equipment for deep water exploration that trinidad could never dream to afford.
The recession is as a result of our economy being reliant on one commodity, diversification is needed but whatever you have will supplement your income not replace it. When diversifying, especially in a technical field, the engineering part alone takes at least 2.5 years, then is the building phase and you finally MAY reap some profits after five years.
http://www.discover-tt.net/business/eco ... ators.html
The only reason I know why TT isnt getting as much tax as before is because in an attempt to stimulate exploration, the former energy minister made an agreement not to tax oil companies the full thing once the prince remained below 50 dollars per barrel

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Re: The party now start

Postby Redman » August 23rd, 2016, 1:42 am

The majority of taxes are taken off the top line revenue as royalties.

But BC isn't saddled with the weight of reality.

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Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby bluesclues » August 23rd, 2016, 10:05 am

Trinispougla wrote:Firstly, Bluesclues, the reason oil production fell was because the commodity of Natural gas was and is the bedrock of our economy, this started in the late 1970s and went on steroids in 1993 when Manning monetized our gas fields which took us out of the recession and brought a host of companies to the industrial estate. Oil production is low because it is not as big a priority as hydrocarbons. Secondly, petroleum(oil, hydrocarbons etc) actually contributes 45% of gdp, not 20%.


according to a recent report, the projections for 2016 place the energy sector at a 20% contribution.. down from 45%

https://www.google.tt/url?sa=t&rct=j&q= ... 9880,d.dmo
Projections indicate that for fiscal year 2015-2016 the energy sector would only contribute roughly 20% to GOTT revenues, leaving the shortfall to be filled by non-energy sources.
In response to these developments, the GOTTT introduced a suite of new tax measures ( -Reduction of VAT from 15% to 12.5% to be applied to a widened base of items, - Increases in the Business Levy and Green Fund Levy, Re-introduction of the Property Tax valued at 2009 levels and - an increase in the taxable allowance of Personal Income Tax to TTD75,000 among the measure) aimed at boosting non-energy revenues. According to the CBTT, the reduction of the VAT rate to 12.5% but the widening of the base may cause an upward pressure on prices
with core inflation estimated at 3.5% and food inflation potentially registering double digits for 2016. As at October 2015 headline inflation stood at 3.5%, while core inflation jumped 50 basis points to 2.5% reflecting the 15% increase in diesel and super gasoline prices announced in the most recent 2015/2016 GOTT budget. In addition to the measures listed above, the GOTT has moved to revamp the tax collection agencies and processes in the country, however we view this as a medium term strategy with minimal benefits in the short term. With energy prices
projected to remain depressed over the medium term, coupled with the supply issues plaguing the local energy sector, the CBTT is projecting that the economy should contract by a further 1.5% in 2016. The declining economy, when coupled with a somewhat less accommodative monetary policy and increasingly austere fiscal policy stance should begin to impact consumer as well as business demand in the latter half of 2016. We expect Trinidad and Tobago's external position to come under more pressure as falling energy prices have sharply reduced the
country's large trade and current account surpluses. While net Government debt is likely to remain below 25% of GDP, the CBTT projects that public debt is set to rise as a result of increased government borrowing to finance projects. On December 24th 2015, Standard and Poor's (S&P) revised its outlook on T&T from stable to negative with the country's A rating remaining unchanged. Trinidad and Tobago is currently rated Baa2 with a negative outlook by Moody's Investor Services, which is three levels below the equivalent S&P rating.

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Thirdly, oil production rose to a high in Jan 2005, so it is incorrect to say that oil production has been falling since the 80s. See graph
https://www.google.tt/search?ei=F8G7V8q ... LcoY3mM%3A
It would be more correct to say that oil production has declined consistently since the July 2006, at least in its current dispensation.This is because you are looking at two different periods, when oil was king and when gas was king


it depends on your perspective, but the data im using is consistent with my choice of words. oil production has been falling since the 80s where in 1980 we were at 240,000bpd.

this chart should put the entire period into proper perspective.
http://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?count ... production

as you can see, the rise in oil production in 2005 is only a small and very temporary bump as the downtrend continued down to today where it is recorded at 72,000bpd in 2016. if we could show yearly increases in this area, im sure many investors will want to jump on board because they are seeing a pattern of progress they expect to continue.


Trinispougla wrote:.And for you to mention duprey and hart is strange. The country passed through billions of dollars in the past 5-10 years so much so that the last government could afford to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on needed infrastructure. If oil prices had not dipped this conversation would be quite irrelevant. As I said, the fact is that no government, neither this one or the last, in fact no government anywhere knew the effect shale oil and gas would have on the market.


deficit spending. the government borrowed more and if i remember correctly even raised the cap(safety limit) so that they can borrow more.

The effect those bonuses have on the economy is minute, almost inconsequential because it is not a large amount of people your dealing with.


no disagreement there, however if we take a tally of figures for say 10-15 years, we might be looking at enough money for petrotrin to afford to pull up it's own socks in difficult times and also reduce our government borrowing to keep the economy afloat. or even perhaps invest in it's own local drilling operation.

Fourthly, you cannot say that multinationals are taking advantage of the country. BP is staying in the country despite the downturn and has already found a field off mayaro. Saying that they are spending all the money before the government can access the funds is resorting to innuendo and bacchanal, you have no evidence of that except with one company, Accelor Mitral who is no longer here. BP and BHP have the equipment for deep water exploration that trinidad could never dream to afford.


i am just pointing out the 'coincidence'. it is just strange that by the data ive looked at for the past 5-6 years, when favourable conditions boost a company's sales and revenues... their production, profit margin or both decline and the company's growth seems stunted. in 2014 tcl report attributed it's negative growth, even though cement prices rose, to 'extraodinary expenses'. cement production also declined that year by 9%. im not saying they did anything illegal. if they did im sure our finance gurus wouldve picked up on it by now. but trinidad just seems.... unlucky.... in international business relations.

but at the end of the day, it is poor management decision to pay exhorbitant bonuses to the top level in times of a market price boost and not plan for when the market slumps. what goes up must come down.. it's gravity... and trading and markets arent immune to it's effects. management in such crucial state enterprises should be less short-sighted in it's expenditure.

The recession is as a result of our economy being reliant on one commodity, diversification is needed but whatever you have will supplement your income not replace it. When diversifying, especially in a technical field, the engineering part alone takes at least 2.5 years, then is the building phase and you finally MAY reap some profits after five years.


agreed, but just to give you an idea of how i think. yes, the goal is to supplement the income. but even so, i would set the goal above the bar so we would target diversification projects with the Goal of achieving enough revenues, that were we selling 0 oil, our economy would still stand. such projects and the ability for us to target niche markets in a global supply capacity do exist. one just needs to be aware and up to date with the goings on of the world with regards to business ventures. just one of the projects i have slated, is expected to generate as much as 4billion usd per year within 3-5 years.

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Re: RE: Re: The party now start

Postby De Dragon » August 23rd, 2016, 10:35 am

teems1 wrote:
bluesclues wrote:
But this is the mindset that cause the whole thing in the first place dont u see?? Why did we have to panic IN THE FIRST PLACE?? With all the money we generate over the years, to being labelled, 'the richest country in the caribbean'. What did we do with our 'riches'? Ill tell u what we did.

We ignored the public appeals for diversification when we had the investment power. We called our citizenry and their suggestions 'armchair econmists' and disregarded their input calling it doom and gloom. And you want to continue down that same road? The road to panic when shtf.


So you want the government to invest in what? The first thing Trinis parrot is agriculture but fail to remember that Caroni ran at a loss for years and was never going to be profitable no matter how much $ was thrown at it.

You want them to invest in infrastructure for what? A local Hollywood or Silicon Valley or look into renewable energy or medical/regular tourism? Trinis don't know how to run a startup and any money invested by the government would disappear into the hands of corrupt contractors and in the end nothing is gained.

Didn't you read the papers last week. 50% of Trinis failed Basic CXC Mathematics. If corruption, nepotism and incompetence were CXC subjects we'd probably excel.

It's time to accept the fact that Trinis overestimate their mental prowess on the world scale. On average we are a dunce nation and our only value to the outside world is in the ground below us in the form of hydrocarbons.

All you can do is try to insulate yourselves and families as best as possible from the general population. Hence the need for gated communities, prestige schools etc.

That happens when you have a close to 50 year old factory and trying to be competitive with it. None of that money was properly re-invested in upgrading and expanding the factories into producing what is a sure seller.

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Re: The party now start

Postby bluesclues » August 23rd, 2016, 10:48 am

i should also point out that the shale industry only caused some minor turbulence when introduced to the industry but it is not a threat to our economy as demand and investment in shale projects is declining. the global problem with oil is that there is literally a steady reduction in demand but few new markets to supply. even with the reduction in supply, demand has been reducing at a fast enough rate to put heavy downward pressure on the market. basically ppl making style on oil now because it perceived that there is no shortage, it's cheap, and they can get whenever they need so they dont have to hoard. the only thing holding back solar technology is the cost and size of the batteries for energy storage. when that changes and the entire package becomes affordable to consumers, we can expect yet another decline.

either way, how long do u think trinidad has to to survive on oil? 10 years? 50 years? 100? 500? im sure there's noone in the room who can confidently say that they think in the year 2100 trinidad will be a thriving oil based economy. so at most we have 84 years before we had better be standing on 2 other feet. most ppl do not think beyond their lifetimes, and so this isnt really a concern for them since they say "i will be dead by then and it will be someone else's problem'. 84 years will fly so fast eh. remember what i said about short-sighted leadership/management.

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