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BANzai Rastafarai wrote:The current oil price is 4.67 dollars per barrel. 60 dollars per barrel is generally regarded as a price which would be able to fund infrastructural and development projects.60 dollars is the price both finance ministers were hoping it rose to. That is not far fetched and this is not venezuela, we are not just producing oil. Trinidad is one of the leaders in production of methanol and urea plus we have signed an mou with suriname for a wood factory, suriname provides the wood, trinidad provides the adhesives made from hydrocarbons. Construction is supposed to start later in the year
Oil struggling to cross $51 with the Iran/Saudis stand-off...and China forcing ppl hand so..yeah... good luck with that. US methanol spot prices have been under pressure lately from weakness in crude oil, as well as ample supplies. Sources said they expect this trend to continue for the remainder of the summer. Export demand has also cooled, after China became a leading importer of US material in the first half of 2016.
but I hear what you trying to imply.
eliteauto wrote:devaluation offers tremendous opportunity, one long write up by the OP that basically tries to summarise current events. Seems like armchair commentators of the day who talk a lot of fluff with no solutions discussed. Was this just a klaxon call to panic OP?
bluesclues wrote:^ well what you want me to do? Even though i never vote for any party on the constitution that i will observe them in action in power before deciding who to dip my finger for. I willing to accept some blame in saying 'we'. But we all know who it is running this country for the last 50 years, who is responsible for the last 30, and who in charge of the current 5 year tenure.
bluesclues wrote:eliteauto wrote:devaluation offers tremendous opportunity, one long write up by the OP that basically tries to summarise current events. Seems like armchair commentators of the day who talk a lot of fluff with no solutions discussed. Was this just a klaxon call to panic OP?
I wish u would be more detailed.
However, if ur thinking china... then i wont agree.
China has good reasons including a surplus manufacturing sector for global exports for devaluing their dollar. Their goal is in capturing larger market share and a larger percentage of their currency in circulation as a world reserve currency.
Which of our industries produce surplus enough for significant revenues? Besides oil and gas we have nothing. or maybe u can enlighten me.
Other than that i dont see what 'tremendous' opportunities u could be talking about.
Trinispougla wrote:bluesclues wrote:^ well what you want me to do? Even though i never vote for any party on the constitution that i will observe them in action in power before deciding who to dip my finger for. I willing to accept some blame in saying 'we'. But we all know who it is running this country for the last 50 years, who is responsible for the last 30, and who in charge of the current 5 year tenure.
Bluesclues de way you gettin on an outsider would think that TT is congo or somalia bro
bluesclues wrote:
But this is the mindset that cause the whole thing in the first place dont u see?? Why did we have to panic IN THE FIRST PLACE?? With all the money we generate over the years, to being labelled, 'the richest country in the caribbean'. What did we do with our 'riches'? Ill tell u what we did.
We ignored the public appeals for diversification when we had the investment power. We called our citizenry and their suggestions 'armchair econmists' and disregarded their input calling it doom and gloom. And you want to continue down that same road? The road to panic when shtf.
teems1 wrote:bluesclues wrote:
But this is the mindset that cause the whole thing in the first place dont u see?? Why did we have to panic IN THE FIRST PLACE?? With all the money we generate over the years, to being labelled, 'the richest country in the caribbean'. What did we do with our 'riches'? Ill tell u what we did.
We ignored the public appeals for diversification when we had the investment power. We called our citizenry and their suggestions 'armchair econmists' and disregarded their input calling it doom and gloom. And you want to continue down that same road? The road to panic when shtf.
So you want the government to invest in what? The first thing Trinis parrot is agriculture but fail to remember that Caroni ran at a loss for years and was never going to be profitable no matter how much $ was thrown at it.
You want them to invest in infrastructure for what? A local Hollywood or Silicon Valley or look into renewable energy or medical/regular tourism? Trinis don't know how to run a startup and any money invested by the government would disappear into the hands of corrupt contractors and in the end nothing is gained.
Didn't you read the papers last week. 50% of Trinis failed Basic CXC Mathematics. If corruption, nepotism and incompetence were CXC subjects we'd probably excel.
It's time to accept the fact that Trinis overestimate their mental prowess on the world scale. On average we are a dunce nation and our only value to the outside world is in the ground below us in the form of hydrocarbons.
All you can do is try to insulate yourselves and families as best as possible from the general population. Hence the need for gated communities, prestige schools etc.
Trinispougla wrote:bluesclues wrote:eliteauto wrote:devaluation offers tremendous opportunity, one long write up by the OP that basically tries to summarise current events. Seems like armchair commentators of the day who talk a lot of fluff with no solutions discussed. Was this just a klaxon call to panic OP?
I wish u would be more detailed.
However, if ur thinking china... then i wont agree.
China has good reasons including a surplus manufacturing sector for global exports for devaluing their dollar. Their goal is in capturing larger market share and a larger percentage of their currency in circulation as a world reserve currency.
Which of our industries produce surplus enough for significant revenues? Besides oil and gas we have nothing. or maybe u can enlighten me.
Other than that i dont see what 'tremendous' opportunities u could be talking about.
So how come tcl virtually own the caribbean? why nfm has virtually own flour in jamaica despite the trouble it's in. Trinidad has the most developed manufacturing sector in the caribbean, so much so that jamaicans erroneously believe that we dominate because of oil and gas without considering the automation we use heavily in production
Trinispougla wrote:I didnt mention numbers. i simply meant that TCL(Trinidad Cement Limited) owns Jamaica Caribbean Cement Company Limited (CCCL) and that NFM is the leading suplier of flour in the country, hence when the boycott happened, rowly had to go and offer a peace offering. Trinidad did not build these companies, they bought them over through the strength of TT manufacturing
bluesclues wrote:Trinispougla wrote:I didnt mention numbers. i simply meant that TCL(Trinidad Cement Limited) owns Jamaica Caribbean Cement Company Limited (CCCL) and that NFM is the leading suplier of flour in the country, hence when the boycott happened, rowly had to go and offer a peace offering. Trinidad did not build these companies, they bought them over through the strength of TT manufacturing
The numbers matter to show growth. Because of the depreciating jamaican dollar they record higher operating costs that erode away the profits. If we're talking growth and expansion, then the money should be expanding too not so? If that not growing, what is the point?
It come like u boasting u wukking for a big 50k a month salary, but after tax your takehome is really $2000. 2billion in revenues for 50million takehome isnt going to wean us of our oil-dependency. Take home from these needs to be 2billion after tax. Whatever markets or resources we facilitate needs to collectively target a 5-10bn+ dollar contribution to our annual budget from exports. That will offset our local demand for foreign currency and imports which sits on average between 2.5 and 4billion usd annually. And even give us some extra change to play with.
Trinispougla wrote:I am aware of that which is why i said manufacturers. The was a period in the 80s when jamaica was importing cement from trinidad, that was at the height of he first imf programme. What i was getting at was the strength of manufacturing in TT allowed tcl to but jamaica's only cement company. I've been trying to emphasize this point for a while. I'll give you an example. read this
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/business ... ad_7765663
bluesclues wrote:Redman wrote:We need to build something that can completely replace oil and keep the country running if it had to operate on its own. When we have that, i will feel comfortable that my government is working for me.
Like what?
Saying what you think we need isnt the same as providing ideas.
So make 3 suggestions on what to do...
Please answer this question
If I BluesClues had full power I would..
1)
2)
3)
Keep it to 3 single line sentences.
Oil-is here for a long time and will continue to be vital to economic activity.
Alternative energy solves provides some of the solutions for some of the uses of oil.
So there will be a migration ....but adoption is a sticky challenging process that is impacted by multiple factors.
Lower oil prices slow reduce the incentive to use/develop/find other sources.
So we should deepen our involvement in the process-to be able to export knowledge,labor services while adopting new tech to reduce the cost of production.
and WHILE we deepening our involvement we doing other things with the immediate return on investment..That is simple diversification plan.
If i bluesclues had full power..... 'i would state it on the podium and not before'
But yes i can.. we can... do just what im speaking about. I have the solutions and yes i already know what im talking about. I just do not wish to reveal it because frankly, i dont trust the competence of anyone else but myself to implement these systems, policies and contingencies to make trinidad a much more resilient and thriving economy.
So am i going to publish my ideas publicly for pnm to take, adapt to themselves and screwup in the longrun? No. Besides, id have to teach them too much when i can just do it myself and get it done right.
1 usd drainage.... fixed
2 export revenues... fixed(major increase)
3. Low level employment, unemployment and government assistance programs... fixed
4 foreign investment interest... fixed
5 tourism sector.... fixed
6 Foreign investment policy... fixed
Just some vague clues to the areas ive been looking at for 15 years and my confidence that not only are they solved issues, but issues that will start to see turnaround, pretty much immediately after i implement the required solutions.
Self employed with multiple streams of income and also a daytrader.
Basically, retired from the local labour force about 3-4 years now at age 30. I repair computers/laptops, phones, tablets, researcher, typist, networking and networking security, hacking and cybersecurity, sales, gardening, outsourcing. And other stuff that pulls a dollar when the day come. Also im a writer with plans to publish a few books ranging from math and science, to novels and spirituality some time in the future.
Dizzy28 wrote:
And you are aware that TCL is not GORTT owned right? It seems you are speaking as if they are in some of your earlier posts.
they are not worth investing in for further expansion until they can show they can generate steady profit over a period of years.
Redman wrote:they are not worth investing in for further expansion until they can show they can generate steady profit over a period of years.
And do you meet this acid test???
they are not worth investing in for further expansion until they can show they can generate steady profit over a period of years.
Redman wrote:So now that youve said what you wanted to say ...answer the question..
You said this about TCLthey are not worth investing in for further expansion until they can show they can generate steady profit over a period of years.
Does BluesClues meet this criteria??
If so show how you substantiate the trust you would be asking any one for...
DVSTT wrote:
Also, what was our oil production like in the 80s as compared to now? Is our output more now due to new equipment acquisition, or less due to wear and tear and lack of maintenance over the years?
bluesclues wrote:DVSTT wrote:
Also, what was our oil production like in the 80s as compared to now? Is our output more now due to new equipment acquisition, or less due to wear and tear and lack of maintenance over the years?
Decline.
in 1980 our oil production rates are recorded at 240,000 barrels per day or bpd. Since then, each year has seen a steady decline in production to now where we are producing 70-80,000 bpd.
There are some technicalities in the current structure. First off, 'production' is a tricky and misleading word to many. Since one would assume we were doing our drilling and exploration. However, this aspect has been hired out to foreign investor companies who claim to take the risk of investing in exploration where they may not find anything. So the government basically buys the oil from them as they bring it up from the ground. Then we process it into various petroleum products for local use and export.
So as it is we have to depend on these companies rate of discovery and extraction, and that has been declining. This was noted since early 2000s when it was noted that production rates fell sharply in 1994 and have been falling since. Prompting some to announce that we may soon run out of oil. There was alot of nationwide discussion about it at the time. Some saw the 'less oil = higher price' angle , while others saw the 'no oil = massive decline in export revenues' angle and wanted government to take action through diversification to increase exports in other sectors since that time.
The rest again has to do with management at petrotrin as well as the exploration companies who were paying out big bonuses while oil was over $80. This all came to light after 2008's global economic downturn. None of these companies planned for a rainy day. And instead reported high expenses eroding their profits. Expenses which included big bonuses for company execs. But which ultimately reduced the amount of taxes they were to pay to the government. Basically they found a way to use government investment to increase revenues, and then blow most of it before the government could make it's claim to it's return on investment.
Its going on in all these big companies. For some reason, management at tcl, nfm, petrotrin to name just a few would always suffer reduced profits due to 'expenses' whenever sales volume increased. So we never saw the money. Why? Dont ask me how and why, but only in trinidad, prices and sales volume could rise and ur company still reporting declining profits from previous years. There is always some expense that comes up that 'coincidentally' swallows up the extra profits we were supposed to be recording.
So now we in a situation where oil which used to contribute to 80% of our national budget. now only contributes 20% due to steady price and production rate decline since the 80s. And wastage when oil was recently over $80 a barrel. Assisted by manning's 2020 vision which managed inflation rates into double digits and the 2008 downturn which moved trinidad from a surplus budget into deficit territory as the government continued to attempt to stimulate the ecnomy with large development projects by borrowing. Then hart and duprey finish we off and leave the country.
Trinispougla wrote:Firstly, Bluesclues, the reason oil production fell was because the commodity of Natural gas was and is the bedrock of our economy, this started in the late 1970s and went on steroids in 1993 when Manning monetized our gas fields which took us out of the recession and brought a host of companies to the industrial estate. Oil production is low because it is not as big a priority as hydrocarbons. Secondly, petroleum(oil, hydrocarbons etc) actually contributes 45% of gdp, not 20%.
Projections indicate that for fiscal year 2015-2016 the energy sector would only contribute roughly 20% to GOTT revenues, leaving the shortfall to be filled by non-energy sources.
In response to these developments, the GOTTT introduced a suite of new tax measures ( -Reduction of VAT from 15% to 12.5% to be applied to a widened base of items, - Increases in the Business Levy and Green Fund Levy, Re-introduction of the Property Tax valued at 2009 levels and - an increase in the taxable allowance of Personal Income Tax to TTD75,000 among the measure) aimed at boosting non-energy revenues. According to the CBTT, the reduction of the VAT rate to 12.5% but the widening of the base may cause an upward pressure on prices
with core inflation estimated at 3.5% and food inflation potentially registering double digits for 2016. As at October 2015 headline inflation stood at 3.5%, while core inflation jumped 50 basis points to 2.5% reflecting the 15% increase in diesel and super gasoline prices announced in the most recent 2015/2016 GOTT budget. In addition to the measures listed above, the GOTT has moved to revamp the tax collection agencies and processes in the country, however we view this as a medium term strategy with minimal benefits in the short term. With energy prices
projected to remain depressed over the medium term, coupled with the supply issues plaguing the local energy sector, the CBTT is projecting that the economy should contract by a further 1.5% in 2016. The declining economy, when coupled with a somewhat less accommodative monetary policy and increasingly austere fiscal policy stance should begin to impact consumer as well as business demand in the latter half of 2016. We expect Trinidad and Tobago's external position to come under more pressure as falling energy prices have sharply reduced the
country's large trade and current account surpluses. While net Government debt is likely to remain below 25% of GDP, the CBTT projects that public debt is set to rise as a result of increased government borrowing to finance projects. On December 24th 2015, Standard and Poor's (S&P) revised its outlook on T&T from stable to negative with the country's A rating remaining unchanged. Trinidad and Tobago is currently rated Baa2 with a negative outlook by Moody's Investor Services, which is three levels below the equivalent S&P rating.
Thirdly, oil production rose to a high in Jan 2005, so it is incorrect to say that oil production has been falling since the 80s. See graph
https://www.google.tt/search?ei=F8G7V8q ... LcoY3mM%3A
It would be more correct to say that oil production has declined consistently since the July 2006, at least in its current dispensation.This is because you are looking at two different periods, when oil was king and when gas was king
Trinispougla wrote:.And for you to mention duprey and hart is strange. The country passed through billions of dollars in the past 5-10 years so much so that the last government could afford to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on needed infrastructure. If oil prices had not dipped this conversation would be quite irrelevant. As I said, the fact is that no government, neither this one or the last, in fact no government anywhere knew the effect shale oil and gas would have on the market.
The effect those bonuses have on the economy is minute, almost inconsequential because it is not a large amount of people your dealing with.
Fourthly, you cannot say that multinationals are taking advantage of the country. BP is staying in the country despite the downturn and has already found a field off mayaro. Saying that they are spending all the money before the government can access the funds is resorting to innuendo and bacchanal, you have no evidence of that except with one company, Accelor Mitral who is no longer here. BP and BHP have the equipment for deep water exploration that trinidad could never dream to afford.
The recession is as a result of our economy being reliant on one commodity, diversification is needed but whatever you have will supplement your income not replace it. When diversifying, especially in a technical field, the engineering part alone takes at least 2.5 years, then is the building phase and you finally MAY reap some profits after five years.
teems1 wrote:bluesclues wrote:
But this is the mindset that cause the whole thing in the first place dont u see?? Why did we have to panic IN THE FIRST PLACE?? With all the money we generate over the years, to being labelled, 'the richest country in the caribbean'. What did we do with our 'riches'? Ill tell u what we did.
We ignored the public appeals for diversification when we had the investment power. We called our citizenry and their suggestions 'armchair econmists' and disregarded their input calling it doom and gloom. And you want to continue down that same road? The road to panic when shtf.
So you want the government to invest in what? The first thing Trinis parrot is agriculture but fail to remember that Caroni ran at a loss for years and was never going to be profitable no matter how much $ was thrown at it.
You want them to invest in infrastructure for what? A local Hollywood or Silicon Valley or look into renewable energy or medical/regular tourism? Trinis don't know how to run a startup and any money invested by the government would disappear into the hands of corrupt contractors and in the end nothing is gained.
Didn't you read the papers last week. 50% of Trinis failed Basic CXC Mathematics. If corruption, nepotism and incompetence were CXC subjects we'd probably excel.
It's time to accept the fact that Trinis overestimate their mental prowess on the world scale. On average we are a dunce nation and our only value to the outside world is in the ground below us in the form of hydrocarbons.
All you can do is try to insulate yourselves and families as best as possible from the general population. Hence the need for gated communities, prestige schools etc.
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