The official tropical weather thread 2018

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

[shake d livin wake d dead]

passing us clean....may very well be the first ts or hurricane

[redmanjp]

islands should issue watches just in case (not warnings)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Special Message from NHC Issued 5 Jul 2018 14:11 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM AST/EDT on Tropical Depression Two located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

[hydroep]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 051442
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 41.4W
ABOUT 1385 MI...2230 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 41.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A fast
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a
tropical storm later today or on Friday. The system is forecast to
degenerate into an open trough east of the Lesser Antilles over the
weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

Forecaster Berg

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/051442.shtml

[shake d livin wake d dead]

neighbors up north better start preparing for the worse

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

that Sarahan dust

[redmanjp]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT2+shtml/051830.shtml?

Tropical Storm Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
230 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BERYL...

Satellite imagery indicates that the tropical depression has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Beryl. Maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An
updated intensity forecast will be provided with the 500 PM AST
(2100 UTC) advisory.


SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 42.3W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

antigua issued an alert

http://antiguamet.com/Antigua_Met_files/ALERT_STATEMENTS/alertStatement_The%20Leeward%20islands%20and%20British%20Virgin%20Islands.html

[bluefete]

https://www.facebook.com/TTWeatherCenter/

Adverse Weather Watch #1: Showers and Thunderstorms Likely on Saturday as ITCZ modulated by Tropical Storm Beryl to affect Trinidad and Tobago. There is NO tropical storm threat, watch or warning for Trinidad and Tobago!

Start date: Sat, Jul 7, 2018 12:00 AM
End date: Sat, Jul 7, 2018 5:00 PM

Description: Showers, at times heavy, is expected in varying localities and thunderstorms in few areas on Saturday. Gusty winds and street or flash flooding are likely in areas of heavy showers. This event is related to the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone), being modulated by Tropical Depression #2

Instructions: Persons should monitor weather conditions and official updates.

Full information: http://www.metoffice.gov.tt/early_warning

[De Dragon]

Feeling it for the already flooded out people all over T&T.

[bluefete]

Feeling it for the already flooded out people all over T&T.

Me too.

One good shower of rain last week and people all over the place were bawling.

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Hopefully no kinda outa timing cat 3,4,5 hurricane business like last year..

[sMASH]

haul yuh.....

we getting ting this year.. to much energy in the oceans...

[redmanjp]

haul yuh.....

we getting ting this year.. to much energy in the oceans...

There was an article sometime ago in which the Met Office said that storms were tracking more southerly since 2015 which would put us at risk- well Bret came last year and it might very well be a dress rehearsal for what might hit us this year

[redmanjp]

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Beryl
could become a hurricane on Friday. Beryl is forecast to degenerate
into a strong open trough just east of the Lesser Antilles over the
weekend.

hope they right about that wind shear weakening it before it reach d islands

[shake d livin wake d dead]

thing is a cat 1 yes...seigonne say sat into sun we could be affected lil bit

[Sundar]

haul yuh.....

we getting ting this year.. to much energy in the oceans...

There was an article sometime ago in which the Met Office said that storms were tracking more southerly since 2015 which would put us at risk- well Bret came last year and it might very well be a dress rehearsal for what might hit us this year

Way South hit us like a circular saw along the Southern coast. .

[Dizzy28]

CNN calling it Tiny Beryl....
Lets hope it doesn't prove them wrong.

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

*Specifically for Trinidad and Tobago*: Both islands are NOT under any tropical storm threat, watch or warning.

An Adverse Weather Alert, likely to be raised to an Adverse Weather Watch later today by the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, is in effect for Saturday 7th July 2018.

Scattered moderate to heavy showers, thunderstorms are likely due the an active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone modulated by Hurricane Beryl.

Beryl will remain well north of Trinidad and Tobago and due to it’s small circulation, will not directly impact Trinidad and Tobago’s weather via feeder bands nor seas by long period swells. Seas will remain slight to moderate with waves generally up to 1.5 meters in open waters, occasionally up to 2.0 meters and generally up to 1.0 meter in sheltered areas. Weather-wise, rainfall accumulations now through 2:00AM Monday 9th July 2018, are forecast to be generally 15-25 mm across both Trinidad and Tobago, with isolated areas, favoring eastern parts of both islands, receiving up to 40 mm.Gusty winds, street/flash flooding may accompany heavier showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

[redmanjp]

stronger

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/061435.shtml?

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

...BRAZEN BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...NOW FORECAST TO STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 46.5W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Beryl, as hurricane watches could be needed for some of the islands
by tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 46.5 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin over the weekend and
continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the
center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend
and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Beryl is expected to still be a hurricane
when it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday.
Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean
Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough
until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central
Caribbean Sea.

Beryl is a compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

[redmanjp]

http://metoffice.gov.tt/early_warning

Adverse Weather Warning # 2 - Yellow Level
Adverse Weather - Sat, Jul 7, 2018 12:00 AM to Sat, Jul 7, 2018 2:00 PM
Status - Actual Message
Type - Update
Alert - Adverse Weather
Response - Monitor Conditions
Urgency - Expected
Severity - Moderate Certainty - Likely
Category - Met

Start date (local time) Sat, Jul 7, 2018 12:00 AM
End date (local time) Sat, Jul 7, 2018 2:00 PM
Headline Adverse Weather Warning # 2 - Yellow Level

Description

Showers and isolated thunderstorms, at times heavy are expected Saturday 7th July, 2018 from midnight. Gusty winds and street or flash flooding are likely in areas of heavy downpours. This event is due to the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone). Please note also, that Hurricane Beryl on its current track, poses no direct threat to Trinidad and Tobago. An update to this advisory will be issued as warranted.

Instructions

Monitor weather conditions and updates from official sources. Plan safety measures. Follow the instructions of government officials. More information: http://www.odpm.gov.tt
Area description Trinidad and Tobago

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

So MET office is saying we won't be affected by Beryl, but will be affected by the Tropical Wave currently east of us (circled in green) starting early Saturday morning. That tropical wave is what the Adverse Weather Warning # 2 - Yellow Level for Trinidad & Tobago is about.

[pugboy]

They don't want to be caught napping like last week lol

[streetbeastINC.]

Our met office also said yesterday on 12 noon news that there was no likelihood that the disturbance will manifest into a ts or even had a chance, although before i left home i read NOAA forecasting said it was going to develop.......

[X_Factor]

better hope and pray beryl starts heading north soon as predicted or else its gonna be a serious 1-2 punch

[joker]

I also noticed that discussion..
Monitoring!

[shake d livin wake d dead]

So expect more floods this weekend?

[randolphinshan]

So expect more floods this weekend?

Put those billion dollar box drains built by you know who, to the test..

[X_Factor]

the northward movement on the tracking seem to have started so we should be in the general clear zone for beryl

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

the northward movement on the tracking seem to have started so we should be in the general clear zone for beryl

for sure. I think the ODPM Public Advisory is more for the tropical wave

[novastar1]

the northward movement on the tracking seem to have started so we should be in the general clear zone for beryl

You mean...... God is ah Trini