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ek4ever
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Impending US Economic Crash

Postby ek4ever » December 11th, 2018, 3:22 pm

If you've been following economists and economic pundits, the next US crash is already in motion. The US Fed is leveraged to the hilt and there are several industries which are going bust and will require more bailouts. The US stock market is grossly overvalued and undetected by the average American, the US gov't has started to enact laws restricting financial transactions in cash as it is now recognised that there is actually not enough physical cash in the US banking system. New findings are indicating that the point of no return has been past and the economic collapse is a matter of time.

Of course what's bad for the US spells disaster for us.
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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby SMc » December 11th, 2018, 3:46 pm

should I wait a couple weeks to buy some USD?

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby toyolink » December 11th, 2018, 3:54 pm

The dow for 2018 has just been bumping between a band of just below 26000 and low of just above 24000.
This seems to be just adequate for traders to make some money but leaves investors in the lurch.
With confidence in about everything questionable and a real lack of any constructive stimulus program, things can go south very easily.

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby The_Honourable » December 11th, 2018, 6:21 pm

An economic crash usually happens when mainstream media and Wall St tells people that everything is fine and don't study what they naysayers are saying.

It has been years people predicting a crash. If it does happen, expect a war soon as a method to get out of it.

For all you know, nothing will happen for the next few years except "corrections" but it's better to be safe than sorry, organize your business and safeguard your investments.

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby Miktay » December 11th, 2018, 6:43 pm

Crash and collapse are strong words.

A better but not foolproof indicator of US slowdowns iz thiz.

Image

A section of the U.S. Treasuries yield curve just inverted for the first time in more than a decade.

The spread between 3- and 5-year yields fell to negative 1.4 basis points Monday, dropping below zero for the first time since 2007, and the 2- to 5-year gap soon followed. The 2- to 10-year is more closely watched as a potential indicator of pending recessions. But Monday’s move could be the first signal that the market is putting the Federal Reserve on notice that the end of its tightening cycle is approaching.

While the yields on shorter-maturities fell on Tuesday during Asian hours, the spread between 3-, 5-year yields remained stable. Longer-maturity bonds rallied sharply, flattening the long-end of the yield curve. The U.S. 10-year slipped another 3 basis points to 2.94 percent, dropping below the 200-day moving average for the first time this year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -inversion

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby adnj » December 11th, 2018, 7:33 pm

I cannot see why anyone in Trinidad would believe that a US economic slowdown spells disaster for Trinidad when the biggest links are likely petrochemicals and remittance payments.

A US recession may lower international monetary costs, lower interest rates and bring a weaker dollar that will reduce the foreign exchange shortage in the short term.

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby EFFECTIC DESIGNS » December 11th, 2018, 7:49 pm

OP posted a picture of sources which claims the US economy will crash.

Anybody actually observe those websites he posted? they are all 100% Liberal Anti Trump Propaganda websites.

This is just more proof that the dishonest liberal MSM can never be trusted to report the news. This is why we call them fake news

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby The_Honourable » December 11th, 2018, 10:57 pm

Effectic does have a case. Trump strong point is the economy and there are many who want the economy to crash just to blame Trump so left-wing media will have an agenda. That's how bad things are with politics in the US right now. If a crash does happen, he's done for 2020.

Everytime a crash happens, it seemingly "comes out of nowhere" for the mainstream where only a few that main street hardly or never heard about sounded the warning months if not a few years in advance.

From what i read so far, the signs are there especially if interest rates go up in 2019 although most is expecting a hike this month. If oil prices goes past $90 to $100 a barrel, a crash is imminent.

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby EFFECTIC DESIGNS » December 12th, 2018, 7:01 am

Yup remember Bill Maher said he is hoping for the the Economy Crash just so we could get rid of Trump. It made news all over when he said that just a few months ago.

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby ek4ever » December 12th, 2018, 10:28 am

EFFECTIC DESIGNS wrote:OP posted a picture of sources which claims the US economy will crash.

Anybody actually observe those websites he posted? they are all 100% Liberal Anti Trump Propaganda websites.

This is just more proof that the dishonest liberal MSM can never be trusted to report the news. This is why we call them fake news


It was just a search to show that this is something that Americans appear to not be aware of since the Trump govt keeps painting a rosy picture of the economy. The difference is that the Fed added 4 trillion in additional debt which they didn't have in the 2008 crash. Also companies like JP Morgan are buying millions of troy once in silver and other precious metals. Several hedge funds have removed billions of dollars from the market and have it locked up in vaults....not bank or investment accounts...physical money. Sub-prime car loans are at a peak and banks are no longer providing loans to the lending institutions. And as was pointed out above the yield curve is in an inversion despite the fact that the feds fixed the 3 month bonds at 0.02%. At this point everyone is waiting on interest rates to rise.....which Trump is vehemently against....but the Fed has no choice because they need the headroom and need to be at around 5% for short term yields in order to fight a recession. Unfortunately they rigged the system with the artificial low short term yield for so long that they are trapped.

The real issue is that the problems that caused the 2008 financial crisis were never fixed, they were simply covered up and 10 years later we're back full circle except there is a lot more debt....Fed debt is up over 560%

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby ek4ever » December 12th, 2018, 10:33 am

toyolink wrote:The dow for 2018 has just been bumping between a band of just below 26000 and low of just above 24000.
This seems to be just adequate for traders to make some money but leaves investors in the lurch.
With confidence in about everything questionable and a real lack of any constructive stimulus program, things can go south very easily.


Not surprising.....the tax cut Trump provided to corporations were used by many companies for share buy backs to increase share prices ... check GM internal stock purchase and look at the problems they are in right now.....Ford to follow

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby Trinispougla » December 12th, 2018, 10:47 am

I believe i said i knew this would happen earlier this year on 2ner. I'm not sure, it could be another forum. But all he has structurally is deregulate the banks, institute tax cuts(for the rich) and start proverbial beefs with some of his country's major labor markets. You cant start a fight with china when 3/4 of american corporations have components or whole products manufactured there, where admittedly the skill base is. You can only employ so many design and managerial engineers. Technicians are needed in great quantities, which is sorely lacking in their labour market. China not only has the skills, but also has relatively cheap labour costs.

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby Trinispougla » December 12th, 2018, 11:05 am

ek4ever wrote:
EFFECTIC DESIGNS wrote:OP posted a picture of sources which claims the US economy will crash.

Anybody actually observe those websites he posted? they are all 100% Liberal Anti Trump Propaganda websites.

This is just more proof that the dishonest liberal MSM can never be trusted to report the news. This is why we call them fake news


It was just a search to show that this is something that Americans appear to not be aware of since the Trump govt keeps painting a rosy picture of the economy. The difference is that the Fed added 4 trillion in additional debt which they didn't have in the 2008 crash. Also companies like JP Morgan are buying millions of troy once in silver and other precious metals. Several hedge funds have removed billions of dollars from the market and have it locked up in vaults....not bank or investment accounts...physical money. Sub-prime car loans are at a peak and banks are no longer providing loans to the lending institutions. And as was pointed out above the yield curve is in an inversion despite the fact that the feds fixed the 3 month bonds at 0.02%. At this point everyone is waiting on interest rates to rise.....which Trump is vehemently against....but the Fed has no choice because they need the headroom and need to be at around 5% for short term yields in order to fight a recession. Unfortunately they rigged the system with the artificial low short term yield for so long that they are trapped.

The real issue is that the problems that caused the 2008 financial crisis were never fixed, they were simply covered up and 10 years later we're back full circle except there is a lot more debt....Fed debt is up over 560%

To an extent they were fixed. Remember the situation was caused primarily by gross corruption is some of the world's leading banks and financial institutions. And it was a worldwide network which when exposed showed a housing racket in Spain, gross corruption in banks in iceland and something similar in Ireland. Hence the knock on effect in Europe. I think the congress put serious regulatory frameworks in place but those were reversed as soon after the election

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby Redman » December 12th, 2018, 11:06 am

The market is different from the economy.
History has shown that the Presidential cycle is still intact-and that the Fed is willing to step in and fix stuff in the 2 years before Presidential elections.

As was indicated above-the sentiment isnt sufficiently extreme to indicate a real correction.

IBanks have been over long Gold and Silver for almost a decade.
The market will remain irrational longer that you will remain liquid.

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby Trinispougla » December 12th, 2018, 11:07 am

Redman wrote:The market is different from the economy.
History has shown that the Presidential cycle is still intact-and that the Fed is willing to step in and fix stuff in the 2 years before Presidential elections.

As was indicated above-the sentiment isnt sufficiently extreme to indicate a real correction.

IBanks have been over long Gold and Silver for almost a decade.
The market will remain irrational longer that you will remain liquid.

That is true. If im not mistaken all the federal reserve did was to print more money, that does not indicate a significant change in monetary policy indeed. But what cannot also be underestimated is the effects of the"easy to win" trade wars with China. In fact i think while the influx of money from the fed was in hindsight a temporary fix, the fact is as early as 2015, the US was starting to come out of the downturn. This could have been for several reasons: Stimulation of the private sector due to shale oil production is one i could think of, but ever since China opened up in the 80s, American corporations have always built their products or components their. Almost every chip apple ever use since 95 was made in china. The trade war has upset what really was an uneasy peace. Im sure the us political directorate wasn't comfortable with labour needs being satisfied by a upcoming superpower but they knew there weren't really any other alternatives

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby ek4ever » December 12th, 2018, 11:28 am

Trinispougla wrote:
ek4ever wrote:
EFFECTIC DESIGNS wrote:OP posted a picture of sources which claims the US economy will crash.

Anybody actually observe those websites he posted? they are all 100% Liberal Anti Trump Propaganda websites.

This is just more proof that the dishonest liberal MSM can never be trusted to report the news. This is why we call them fake news


It was just a search to show that this is something that Americans appear to not be aware of since the Trump govt keeps painting a rosy picture of the economy. The difference is that the Fed added 4 trillion in additional debt which they didn't have in the 2008 crash. Also companies like JP Morgan are buying millions of troy once in silver and other precious metals. Several hedge funds have removed billions of dollars from the market and have it locked up in vaults....not bank or investment accounts...physical money. Sub-prime car loans are at a peak and banks are no longer providing loans to the lending institutions. And as was pointed out above the yield curve is in an inversion despite the fact that the feds fixed the 3 month bonds at 0.02%. At this point everyone is waiting on interest rates to rise.....which Trump is vehemently against....but the Fed has no choice because they need the headroom and need to be at around 5% for short term yields in order to fight a recession. Unfortunately they rigged the system with the artificial low short term yield for so long that they are trapped.

The real issue is that the problems that caused the 2008 financial crisis were never fixed, they were simply covered up and 10 years later we're back full circle except there is a lot more debt....Fed debt is up over 560%

To an extent they were fixed. Remember the situation was caused primarily by gross corruption is some of the world's leading banks and financial institutions. And it was a worldwide network which when exposed showed a housing racket in Spain, gross corruption in banks in iceland and something similar in Ireland. Hence the knock on effect in Europe. I think the congress put serious regulatory frameworks in place but those were reversed as soon after the election


They were never fixed. The Fed employed quantitative easing to reflate the market, what this did was increase debt and put pressure on the dollar...now inflation is rising as interests rates rise, debt will rise, and the bond market is going to bust. Any economist worth his salt will tell you that quantitative easing is easy to start....shutting it down is the difficult part and it cannot continue indefinitely. Remember the govt cut taxes and borrowed money (bonds) to keep the bubble going...but who is going to buy bonds? Americans are broke and have less money than ever before....more personal debt than at any time in history....and just wait until their variable mortgage rates start to go up.... and no outside investor going to buy them as bond rates fall and the risk increases..
Last edited by ek4ever on December 12th, 2018, 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby Trinispougla » December 12th, 2018, 11:29 am

I also think soon, and specifically because of this trade war, and the rise of chinese technology companies, American tech giants will be phased out of china and that will be a mega blow to Silicon Valley. The unfortunate results of economic nationalism

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby Sundar » December 12th, 2018, 1:24 pm

which building they gonna blow up this time? The Amero coming in now?

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby Miktay » December 12th, 2018, 1:35 pm

Remember the govt cut taxes and borrowed money (bonds) to keep the bubble going...but who is going to buy bonds? Americans are broke and have less money than ever before....more personal debt than at any time in history...


The average American does not buy US govt securities.

Image
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... 2018-08-21

.and just wait until their variable mortgage rates start to go up.... and no outside investor going to buy them as bond rates fall and the risk increases.


More people may be using ARMs because of the high cost of housing in metro areas but most US homeowners buy a fixed rate mortgage. Last time i checked it was above 85%.

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby ek4ever » December 12th, 2018, 2:07 pm

Miktay wrote:
Remember the govt cut taxes and borrowed money (bonds) to keep the bubble going...but who is going to buy bonds? Americans are broke and have less money than ever before....more personal debt than at any time in history...


The average American does not buy US govt securities.

Image
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... 2018-08-21

.and just wait until their variable mortgage rates start to go up.... and no outside investor going to buy them as bond rates fall and the risk increases.


More people may be using ARMs because of the high cost of housing in metro areas but most US homeowners buy a fixed rate mortgage. Last time i checked it was above 85%.


They do via investment funds

The fixed rate is for a certain period....not over the life of the mortgage

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby Miktay » December 13th, 2018, 1:18 am

ek4ever wrote:The fixed rate is for a certain period....not over the life of the mortgage


I don’t know where u get your information but thats not correct.

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Re: Impending US Economic Crash

Postby Miktay » January 3rd, 2019, 6:26 pm

Spreads narrow on LT and ST US rates.

Grim start: Treasury yield curve, market's favorite recession indicator, flattens

JAN 3, 2019

NEW YORK - Traders return to their desks in the new year with a familiar warning signal flashing even more strongly than before — the Treasury yield curve got even flatter, feeding the market’s worst suspicions about the U.S. economy.

Market watchers noted a dramatic compression in what is arguably the most reliable indicator of recession — the gap between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields.

This spread hit a post-crisis low of just 18.6 basis points in early New York trading Wednesday, barely half the intraday peak it reached on Dec. 31. The gap has since pulled back toward its opening level for the day of around 24 basis points, but the narrowing trend is hard to ignore as U.S. economic data deteriorate and traders start pricing in the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2020.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/ ... C6Ld3jPyUk

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