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The official tropical weather thread 2019

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toyolink
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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby toyolink » September 6th, 2019, 4:22 pm

I have always wondered about the Bahamas ability to deal with a really bad hurricane.
The place is really a beautiful creation of the sea, since its made up of a collection of coral islands with no meaningful elevation.
The horror that now unfolds may only be explained by an understanding of nature and versus the desires of man.
The pain continues when the lack of drinkable water is taken into consideration and can only be eased when emergency supplies and portable desal units are deployed.
…...Nature is unrelenting.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby sMASH » September 6th, 2019, 8:12 pm

US already has assets landed there for clean up.

The Bahamas advised tourists NOT to cancel visits, as its only the north most islands that were affected, and the vast majority of islands are okay. And that they need the tourist money now more thsn ever.


Things seem very bad, but not as widespread as it looked.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby brainchild » September 7th, 2019, 2:04 pm

Lightning, thunder n black skies in san juan...no rain yet

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby rspann » September 7th, 2019, 2:29 pm

brainchild wrote:Lightning, thunder n black skies in san juan...no rain yet



Eh heh? Look outside.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby shake d livin wake d dead » September 7th, 2019, 2:42 pm

brainchild wrote:Lightning, thunder n black skies in san juan...no rain yet


Trini river lime says otherwise

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » September 7th, 2019, 3:28 pm

thundershowers in chaguanas for about an hour now

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby redmanjp » September 7th, 2019, 4:43 pm

shake d livin wake d dead wrote:
maj. tom wrote:37.0 °C? Feels like 48.5°C ?!!!! TT Weather Center? Who is dem? Where they getting their data from? Who doing those calculations? Not Piarco and the Met office which currently reports 32° C and Feels like 38°C through AccuWeather (more reasonable don't you think?)

If those temperatures were real then hundreds of people and animals would be dead right now. You would hear it on the news.
Annotation 2019-09-06 145655.png


Tt weather centre have a huge following on fb...he around some time now


Met Office would have issued Heat Advisories for those temps. Did hear of any. And yes a few ppl may have died (though not hundreds).

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby sMASH » September 7th, 2019, 7:31 pm

Rio, oven whole day

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby EFFECTIC DESIGNS » September 7th, 2019, 8:21 pm

I so sick of this heat eh, if you see how hot today was, steups....

Feels like the rain forever gone and will never return

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby maj. tom » September 7th, 2019, 8:47 pm

It is possible that this is the start of a drought and a new weather pattern. But I think you will have enough rain in September and October when the ITCZ lies directly above us.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby hydroep » September 7th, 2019, 8:53 pm

Is probably Petit Carême - normal for this time of year.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » September 7th, 2019, 9:06 pm

maj. tom wrote:It is possible that this is the start of a drought and a new weather pattern. But I think you will have enough rain in September and October when the ITCZ lies directly above us.

Petite Careme?

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby maj. tom » September 7th, 2019, 9:17 pm

Hopefully, but that doesn't explain the still extremely low water reservoir levels. Next year we may be in for some real trouble!

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby redmanjp » September 7th, 2019, 9:24 pm

maj. tom wrote:Hopefully, but that doesn't explain the still extremely low water reservoir levels. Next year we may be in for some real trouble!


It's likely we will have water use restrictions until next Rainy Season August at least. And reduced schedules. I on 2 days a week Monday and Friday but didn't hear water fulling d tank Monday so it's actually worse. Good ting we have 2 1000 gallon tank.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby redmanjp » September 7th, 2019, 9:25 pm

maj. tom wrote:Hopefully, but that doesn't explain the still extremely low water reservoir levels. Next year we may be in for some real trouble!


It's likely we will have water use restrictions until next Rainy Season August at least. And reduced schedules. I on 2 days a week Monday and Friday but didn't hear water fulling d tank Monday so it's actually worse. Good ting we have 2 1000 gallon tank.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby redmanjp » September 7th, 2019, 9:26 pm

------------
Last edited by redmanjp on September 10th, 2019, 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby grad » September 8th, 2019, 1:09 am

Usually they turn north...but model has it going south
Screenshot_20190908-010955.jpeg

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The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby hydroep » September 8th, 2019, 6:04 am

Keeping an eye on the orange one, every update so far has it taking a more westerly track - like it taking aim at the islands...:|

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby PariaMan » September 8th, 2019, 8:07 am

already north of us though

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby shake d livin wake d dead » September 8th, 2019, 8:29 am

PariaMan wrote:already north of us though


Initially it started as going north then took a dip...may go back north

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby cornfused » September 8th, 2019, 9:52 am

Definitely, one to watch.

Meanwhile Dorian had reached Nova Scotia Canada with 100mph winds. Death toll from the Bahamas now 46

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » September 8th, 2019, 11:45 am

This heat!!!!

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby matr1x » September 8th, 2019, 12:07 pm

Oh goooodddd it hotttt

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby aaron17 » September 8th, 2019, 3:09 pm

Bruhhh
....like ah oven ah tell yuh.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby sMASH » September 8th, 2019, 3:12 pm

Thermometer says 34...
Feels like PNM country

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby abducted » September 8th, 2019, 3:19 pm

T&T Weather center have been over reacting
d4dbc318-d37a-4e6c-aa3f-28e18b3f6acf.jpg

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby maj. tom » September 8th, 2019, 3:28 pm

Whoever that is must be put their thermometer directly in the sun in a closed box instead of a properly calibrated Stevenson screen. Reporting news like that is very irresponsible.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby redmanjp » September 8th, 2019, 4:49 pm

Hurricane Dorian - Weather manipulation & Warfare?

Last edited by redmanjp on September 10th, 2019, 1:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby adnj » September 8th, 2019, 4:58 pm

maj. tom wrote:Whoever that is must be put their thermometer directly in the sun in a closed box instead of a properly calibrated Stevenson screen. Reporting news like that is very irresponsible.
Using identical equipment, it is not uncommon to record summertime temperature differentials of 10°C between urban and rural locations.

City locations typically experience higher ground temperatures than the nearby airport weather that serve them.

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Re: The official tropical weather thread 2019

Postby redmanjp » September 8th, 2019, 5:03 pm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_modification#Hurricane_modification
Weather modification

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A tornado near Anadarko, Oklahoma during the 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak. Weather researchers may aspire to eliminate or control dangerous types of weather such as this.

Weather modification is the act of intentionally manipulating or altering the weather. The most common form of weather modification is cloud seeding, which increases rain or snow, usually for the purpose of increasing the local water supply.[1] Weather modification can also have the goal of preventing damaging weather, such as hail or hurricanes, from occurring; or of provoking damaging weather against the enemy, as a tactic of military or economic warfare like Operation Popeye, where clouds were seeded to prolong the monsoon in Vietnam. Weather modification in warfare has been banned by the United Nations under Environmental Modification Convention.

History
A popular belief in northern Europe that shooting prevents hail caused many agricultural towns to fire cannons without ammunition. Veterans of the Seven Years' War, Napoleonic wars, and the American Civil War reported that rain fell after every large battle. After their stories were collected in War and Weather, the United States Department of War in the late 19th century purchased $9,000 of gunpowder and explosives to detonate them in Texas. The results of the test, supervised by Robert Dyrenforth, were inconclusive.[2]

Wilhelm Reich performed cloudbusting experiments in the 1950s, the results of which are controversial and not widely accepted by mainstream science.

In November 1955, the Thailand Royal Rainmaking Project (Thai: โครงการฝนหลวง) was initiated by King Bhumibol Adulyadej. He discovered that many areas faced the problem of drought. Over 82 percent of Thai agricultural land relied on rainfall. Thai farmers were not able to grow crops for lack of water. The royal rainmaking project debuted on 20 July 1969 at his behest, when the first rainmaking attempt was made at Khao Yai National Park. Dry ice flakes were scattered over clouds. Reportedly, some rainfall resulted. In 1971, the government established the Artificial Rainmaking Research and Development Project within the Thai Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives[3][circular reference]

In January 2011, several newspapers and magazines, including the UK's Sunday Times and Arabian Business, reported that scientists backed by the government of Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, had created over 50 artificial rainstorms between July and August 2010 near Al Ain, a city which lies close to the country's border with Oman and is the second-largest city in the Abu Dhabi Emirate. The artificial rainstorms were said to have sometimes caused hail, gales and thunderstorms, baffling local residents.[4] The scientists reportedly used ionizers to create the rainstorms, and although the results are disputed, the large number of times it is recorded to have rained right after the ionizers were switched on during a usually dry season is encouraging to those who support the experiment.[5]

Cloud seeding

Cloud seeding is a common technique to enhance precipitation. Cloud seeding entails spraying small particles, such as silver iodide, onto clouds to affect their development, usually with the goal of increasing precipitation. Cloud seeding only works to the extent that there is already water vapor present in the air. Critics generally contend that claimed successes occur in conditions which were going to lead to rain anyway. It is used in a variety of drought-prone countries, including the United States, China, India, and Russia. In China there is a perceived dependency upon it in dry regions, and there is a strong suspicion it is used to "wash the air" in dry and heavily polluted places, such as Beijing.[6] In mountainous areas of the United States such as the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada,[7] cloud seeding has been employed since the 1950s.

"China is launching the world's largest weather-control machine, with the ability to modify the weather in an area similar to the size of Alaska. China has never shied away from doing things on a massive scale and this is yet another example of the Chinese government working on an unprecedented scale".[8] China estimates it to produce up to 10 billion cubic meters of rainfall each year. For comparison, more than 30 countries get less than 10 billion cubic meters of precipitation per year.[9]

Saudi Arabia has been cloud seeding since the 2000s and aims to increase rainfall by 15-30% per year. The material used is: potassium chloride, sodium chloride, magnesium, and other materials.[10]

"In the first three months of 2017, the country carried out 101 cloud seeding operations, compared to 77 over the same period in 2014, according to Arabian Business, who wrote that during March last year when the country had two months of “unusually wet weather” and more rainfall was recorded in Dubai and Al Ain than when records began in 1977."[11]


Consequences
Societal
Making it rain without having adequate systems to handle it may have disastrous consequences. "In the city of Jeddah in Western Saudi Arabia was damaged by floods in 2009 that reportedly killed more than 100 people; igniting questions of why the country doesn’t have effective drainage systems in place."[12]

Human
The U.S. National Library of Medicine notes that the silver iodide has no known “ill effects” on people, although people’s “hands may have remained yellowed for weeks” after being exposed to it.[13]


Storm prevention

Hail cannons at an international congress on hail shooting held in 1901
Project Stormfury was an attempt to weaken tropical cyclones by flying aircraft into storms and seeding the eyewall with silver iodide. The project was run by the United States Government from 1962 to 1983. A similar project using soot was run in 1958, with inconclusive results.[14] Various methods have been proposed to reduce the harmful effects of hurricanes. Moshe Alamaro of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology[15] proposed using barges with upward-pointing jet engines to trigger smaller storms to disrupt the progress of an incoming hurricane; critics doubt the jets would be powerful enough to make any noticeable difference.[14]

Alexandre Chorin of the University of California, Berkeley, proposed dropping large amounts of environmentally friendly oils on the sea surface to prevent droplet formation.[16] Experiments by Kerry Emanuel[17] of MIT in 2002 suggested that hurricane-force winds would disrupt the oil slick, making it ineffective.[14] Other scientists disputed the factual basis of the theoretical mechanism assumed by this approach.[16]

The Florida company Dyn-O-Mat and its CEO, Peter Cordani, proposed the use of a patented product it developed, called Dyn-O-Gel, to reduce the strength of hurricanes. The substance is a polymer in powder form (a polyacrylic acid derivative) which reportedly has the ability to absorb 1,500 times its own weight in water. The theory is that the polymer is dropped into clouds to remove their moisture and force the storm to use more energy to move the heavier water drops, thus helping to dissipate the storm. When the gel reaches the ocean surface, it is reportedly dissolved. Peter Cordani teamed up with Mark Daniels and Victor Miller, the owners of a government contracting aviation firm AeroGroup which operated ex-military aircraft commercially. Using a high altitude B-57 Bomber, AeroGroup tested the substance dropping 9,000 pounds from the B-57 aircraft's large bomb bay disbursing it into a large thunderstorm cell just off the east coast of Florida. The tests were documented on film and made international news showing the storms were successfully removed on monitored Doppler radar. In 2003, the program was shut down because of political pressure through NOAA.[18] Numerical simulations performed by NOAA showed however that it would not be a practical solution for large systems like a tropical cyclone.[19]

Hail cannons have been used by some farmers since the 19th century in an attempt to ward off hail, but there is no reliable scientific evidence to confirm their effectiveness. Another new anti-hurricane technology[20] is a method for the reduction of tropical cyclones' destructive force – pumping sea water into and diffusing it in the wind at the bottom of such tropical cyclone in its eye wall.

Hurricane modification
NOAA published a page addressing various ideas in regards to tropical cyclone manipulation.

In 2007, "How to stop a hurricane"[21] explored various ideas such as:

Using lasers to discharge lightning in storms which are likely to become hurricanes
Pouring liquid nitrogen onto the sea to deprive the hurricane of heat energy.
Creating soot to absorb sunlight and change air temperature and create convection currents in the outer wall.
Researchers from NOAA's hurricane research division addressed hurricane control based ideas.[22]

Later ideas (2017) include laser inversion along the same lines as laser cooling (normally used at cryogenic temperatures) but intended to cool the top 1mm of water. If enough power was used then it might be enough combined with computer modeling to form an interference pattern able to inhibit a hurricane or significantly reduce its strength by depriving it of heat energy.[23][24]

In the military
Operation Popeye was a highly classified operation run by the US military in 1967-1972.[25] The purpose was to prolong Monsoon in Southeast Asia. The overwhelming precipitation successfully disrupted the tactical logistics of Vietnamese army. Operation Popeye is believed as the first successful practice of weather modification technology in warfare. After it was unveiled, weather modification in warfare was banned by the Environmental Modification Convention (ENMOD).[26]

In "Benign Weather Modification" published March 1997, Air Force Major Barry B. Coble superficially documents the existence of weather modification science where he traces the developments that have occurred, notably, in the hands of the Pentagon and CIA's staunchest ideological enemies.

The first scientifically controlled and monitored effort generally recognized by the meteorological community as constituting weather modification occurred in 1948. When Dr. Irving Langmuir first experimented with artificially seeding clouds to produce rain, his experiments showed positive results – sparking tremendous interest in the field nearly overnight.[27]
Many countries throughout the world practice weather modification. The Russians have long been interested in using weather modification as a way to control hail.[28]
The Chinese recognize the value of weather modification and believe that the US military continues to use weather as a weapon.[29]
In the 1990s a directive from the chief of staff of the Air Force Ronald R. Fogleman was issued to examine the concepts, capabilities, and technologies the United States would require to remain the dominant air and space force in the future.

In law
US and Canada agreement
In 1975, the US and Canada entered into an agreement under the auspices of the United Nations for the exchange of information on weather modification activity.[30]

1977 UN Environmental Modification Convention

Weather modification, particularly hostile weather warfare, was addressed by the "United Nations General Assembly Resolution 31/72, TIAS 9614 Convention[31] on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques." The Convention was signed in Geneva on May 18, 1977; entered into force on October 5, 1978; ratified by U.S. President Jimmy Carter on December 13, 1979; and the U.S. ratification deposited at New York January 17, 1980.[32]

US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
In the US, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration keeps records of weather modification projects on behalf of the Secretary of Commerce, under authority of Public Law 92-205, 15 USC § 330B, enacted in 1971.[33]

Proposed US legislation
2005 U.S. Senate Bill 517 and U.S. House Bill 2995 U.S. Senate Bill 517[34] and U.S. House Bill 2995[35] were two bills proposed in 2005 that would have expanded experimental weather modification, to establish a Weather Modification Operations and Research Board, and implemented a national weather modification policy. Neither were made into law. Former Texas State Senator John N. Leedom was the key lobbyist on behalf of the weather modification bills.

2007 U.S. Senate Bill 1807 & U.S. House Bill 3445 Senate Bill 1807 and House Bill 3445, identical bills introduced July 17, 2007, proposed to establish a Weather Mitigation Advisory and Research Board to fund weather modification research[36][37]

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