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Redress10 wrote:Pugboy
The virus determines the timeline and not the person. If covid licking up ppl within 18 days of contracting it then within those 18 days you are going to recover or die. He passed on the 26th of March. Even if he was infected for all of March that is 26 days with covid over 8 days more than the average person. Remember people start recovering by day 10-12. By day 12 is usually when it's time to go on a ventilator. By day 15 you begin to suffer organ failure and by day 18 you pass away.
So if he was infected carnival Tuesday he would have passed away about 18 days after that infection. 10-12 days after being infected he would have started recovering. Covid not here to lime with ya. He on his own schedule as well. Remember the virus has a lifecycle of its own as well. It's not just gonna lay dormant in ya body for days and then affect you for a month or 2.
pugboy wrote:you didnt read what i wroteRedress10 wrote:Pugboy
The virus determines the timeline and not the person. If covid licking up ppl within 18 days of contracting it then within those 18 days you are going to recover or die. He passed on the 26th of March. Even if he was infected for all of March that is 26 days with covid over 8 days more than the average person. Remember people start recovering by day 10-12. By day 12 is usually when it's time to go on a ventilator. By day 15 you begin to suffer organ failure and by day 18 you pass away.
So if he was infected carnival Tuesday he would have passed away about 18 days after that infection. 10-12 days after being infected he would have started recovering. Covid not here to lime with ya. He on his own schedule as well. Remember the virus has a lifecycle of its own as well. It's not just gonna lay dormant in ya body for days and then affect you for a month or 2.
Available evidence of outdoor transmission
of COVID-19 has been reviewed, and the
context and caveats provided by the extant
science and literature considered. This leads to
the conclusion that the outdoor environment
presents a low risk of transmission of COVID-19
due to the natural social distancing that
happens through the normal conventions of
personal space in everyday life.
Why does that matter? Some of it has to do with the physics of air movement, said Linsey Marr, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Virginia Tech. If you’re standing right next to someone else, there won’t be enough time for sun and heat to break the virus down before you breathe it in. But there is enough time for the wind to blow it away. “Imagine someone who is infected as a smoker,” Marr explained. “If someone is smoking, and you want to minimize your exposure, would you rather be indoors or outdoors with them?”
Dohplaydat wrote:Strugglerzinc wrote:Is it still the case where primary contacts are not being actively tested?
Correct, at least in my experience. My brother tested positive privately, he spends a lot of time with my parents and gf, none were asked to come in for testing.
In fact, the contact tracing efforts were ZERO, not sure if it's because he tested privately.
My parents are awaiting results from Mt. Hope since last Tuesday.
I might carry them to get it done privately tomorrow since my pops saying he has been feeling low energy and food lacking taste (unusual coming from him since he's not a fussy eater).
This is how the red government conned a nationStrugglerzinc wrote:Dohplaydat wrote:Strugglerzinc wrote:Is it still the case where primary contacts are not being actively tested?
Correct, at least in my experience. My brother tested positive privately, he spends a lot of time with my parents and gf, none were asked to come in for testing.
In fact, the contact tracing efforts were ZERO, not sure if it's because he tested privately.
My parents are awaiting results from Mt. Hope since last Tuesday.
I might carry them to get it done privately tomorrow since my pops saying he has been feeling low energy and food lacking taste (unusual coming from him since he's not a fussy eater).
So we still up to the same ole tricks, low testing=low numbers.
Actual cases should be 3x-4x the reported numbers if not way more.
Strugglerzinc wrote:Dohplaydat wrote:Strugglerzinc wrote:Is it still the case where primary contacts are not being actively tested?
Correct, at least in my experience. My brother tested positive privately, he spends a lot of time with my parents and gf, none were asked to come in for testing.
In fact, the contact tracing efforts were ZERO, not sure if it's because he tested privately.
My parents are awaiting results from Mt. Hope since last Tuesday.
I might carry them to get it done privately tomorrow since my pops saying he has been feeling low energy and food lacking taste (unusual coming from him since he's not a fussy eater).
So we still up to the same ole tricks, low testing=low numbers.
Actual cases should be 3x-4x the reported numbers if not way more.
By comparison, outdoor transmission is minuscule - unless there is prolonged contact and/or large crowds.Dohplaydat wrote:Habit7 wrote:Dohplaydat wrote:Redress10 wrote:Dohplaydat wrote:Habit7 wrote:The same ppl criticising the no music on the glass bottom boat will be vex when they see the same boat blasting music on No Mans Land and ppl feting and carrying on.
Yea I agree, but honestly the risk of outdoor spread is low. Probably why we got lucky for Carnival.
We did not get lucky for carnival. The virus simply wasn't amongst our population as yet. Had carnival been a week or two later then yeh.
Can't believe you all still don't know how transmissions work. Jeez
I agree partially but you really feel all them plane loads of New Yorkers came down and no one had Covid? Keep dreaming. Testing was poor back then in the US and even poorer in Trinidad.
The summer spike wasn't just venes bringing it in, it was always amongst us just not spreading exponentially.
There's now lots of evidence to show outdoor spread of Covid is miniscule.
Research it yourself.
Combine that and us not really having a vitamin D deficiency and Covid being less virulent in tropical climates made us LUCKY.
New Orleans Mardi Gras- unlucky
scores of Brazilian city carnivals (in the middle of Southern summer) - unlucky
Trinidad carnival -lucky
You keep telling yourself that.
Keep telling yourself MoH testing is consistent with those in Brazil and the USA.
Redress10 wrote:Can't compare NY cases to TT. I'm sure Ny has direct flights to Wuhan so NY infection would have been instantaneous. Same goes for London, Paris and any other major city flying direct to Wuhan or even China. That is why they are impacted differently.
Do you think that a small island with little air travel would he affected the same way of a large metropolitan city? JFK alone processes over 800 flights per day. Heathrow has over 1300 flights daily. All of this plays a part in how quickly a disease spread.
Dohplaydat wrote:And wouldn't that mean that it is very possible a handful of covid-19 carriers were here for carnival?
Not to mention the scores of trinis who travel for carnival to those places and would have returned after carnival.
I'm simply saying we avoided 'seeing' an outbreak by (1) having very strict and limited testing and (2) locking down hard in late March, stopping exponential growth from happening.
It wasn't solely luck of the timing of carnival, other factors were at play.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... study-says
redmanjp wrote:Dohplaydat wrote:And wouldn't that mean that it is very possible a handful of covid-19 carriers were here for carnival?
Not to mention the scores of trinis who travel for carnival to those places and would have returned after carnival.
I'm simply saying we avoided 'seeing' an outbreak by (1) having very strict and limited testing and (2) locking down hard in late March, stopping exponential growth from happening.
It wasn't solely luck of the timing of carnival, other factors were at play.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... study-says
based on the no of deaths - 8, there could have been about ~400 cases at that time based on a 2% rate but we were not doing community tests at the time- but the lockdown stopped it. most of that could have come from the thousands who rushed to come back home b4 the borders closed. when community tests started weeks later we were getting 0 cases for another few weeks till July.
Dohplaydat wrote:Redress10 wrote:Can't compare NY cases to TT. I'm sure Ny has direct flights to Wuhan so NY infection would have been instantaneous. Same goes for London, Paris and any other major city flying direct to Wuhan or even China. That is why they are impacted differently.
Do you think that a small island with little air travel would he affected the same way of a large metropolitan city? JFK alone processes over 800 flights per day. Heathrow has over 1300 flights daily. All of this plays a part in how quickly a disease spread.
And wouldn't that mean that it is very possible a handful of covid-19 carriers were here for carnival?
Not to mention the scores of trinis who travel for carnival to those places and would have returned after carnival.
I'm simply saying we avoided 'seeing' an outbreak by (1) having very strict and limited testing and (2) locking down hard in late March, stopping exponential growth from happening.
It wasn't solely luck of the timing of carnival, other factors were at play.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... study-says
Redress10 wrote:Dohplaydat wrote:Redress10 wrote:Can't compare NY cases to TT. I'm sure Ny has direct flights to Wuhan so NY infection would have been instantaneous. Same goes for London, Paris and any other major city flying direct to Wuhan or even China. That is why they are impacted differently.
Do you think that a small island with little air travel would he affected the same way of a large metropolitan city? JFK alone processes over 800 flights per day. Heathrow has over 1300 flights daily. All of this plays a part in how quickly a disease spread.
And wouldn't that mean that it is very possible a handful of covid-19 carriers were here for carnival?
Not to mention the scores of trinis who travel for carnival to those places and would have returned after carnival.
I'm simply saying we avoided 'seeing' an outbreak by (1) having very strict and limited testing and (2) locking down hard in late March, stopping exponential growth from happening.
It wasn't solely luck of the timing of carnival, other factors were at play.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... study-says
Chances are no. The more isolated and the smaller your population is the less likely that you would contract an infectious disease like this. Trinidad is not a global commercial hub. People returning for carnival would have been trinis or ppl with links to trinis. The virus simply could not have reached to that population as yet.
Would you expect to get a virus that is prevalent amongst jewish ppl for instance? Do caribbean ppl and jewish ppl mix in NY? It was the same thing with covid at that time. It was concentrated in other communities and the reality is travel to trinidad simply would not bring a disease that wasn't prevalent in the caribbean community at that time.
Then we idiots telling us don't bring politicians into it .pugboy wrote:btw a large part of the testing reluctance is based on impsbert not wanting to spend $$$$
Current modeling indicates 1:10 infections is detected by testing. Expect peak infection rates in three weeks. Expect significant drop in infections after August 1st.wtf wrote:Trinidad is in bad shape with 85 cases recorded today and 2 more deaths. Things only gonna get worse.
Redress10 wrote:Dohplaydat
New Zealand didn't record its first covid case until the 28th of February. New Zealand is a global commercial hub with people from all over the world flying there and yet still they only recorded their first case on the 28th and you want us to believe that covid was here in the hundreds in the weeks leading up to carnival but we simply didn't test for it? That is just madness now.
Italy's first covid death was confirmed on the 23rd of February. Look at how devastating the disease has been on Italy. When you all were feteing and frolicking ppl in Italy were not even dying as yet. Italy's first case of covid was the 21st. Our carnival was the 25th.
This only proves one thing. You seriously overestimate the importance and relevance of carnival.
redmanjp wrote:^that doh factor in this lockdown does it?
redmanjp wrote:^that doh factor in this lockdown does it?
This model shows twice the number of peak infections per day (1100) as the model from April 4 (570).Dohplaydat wrote:redmanjp wrote:^that doh factor in this lockdown does it?
Nope the lockdown's effects will be somewhere between the dotted green (universal masks) and the dotted purple (current projection), but closer to the purple one.
Their next update in a few days will take the lockdown into effect.
I'm seeing it does predict that in the next 2 weeks we'll have 40-50 deaths regardless of the lockdown's effects. That is sombering and should make trinis behave.
Redress10 wrote:No sorry
I was mistaken. Their first cases were on January 31st from two tourists who were from Wuhan, China. Their third case was an italian from who was repatriated to Italy from Wuhan. They started seeing clusters around 21st and recorded their first deaths on the 22nd.
It just goes to show who were the spreaders in Italy. It would have been people connected to the epicenter. People from wuhan would have frequent Italy because its a major tourist destination.
''adnj wrote:This model shows twice the number of peak infections per day (1100) as the model from April 4 (570).Dohplaydat wrote:redmanjp wrote:^that doh factor in this lockdown does it?
Nope the lockdown's effects will be somewhere between the dotted green (universal masks) and the dotted purple (current projection), but closer to the purple one.
Their next update in a few days will take the lockdown into effect.
I'm seeing it does predict that in the next 2 weeks we'll have 40-50 deaths regardless of the lockdown's effects. That is sombering and should make trinis behave.
The current lockdown may not change the model at all. It was accelerating significantly with no policy changes.
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