The 2020 General Election Thread (AUGUST 10TH)

[elec2020]

I wont comment on each of the responses on my post on the devaluation... just note the following:

a). A devaluation is beneficial when import consumption is unsustainable and when exporters have enough profuctive capacities to benefit from the it (exporters goods and services become cheaper in the foreign market when they is a devaluation).
b). prior to covid a devaluation would have benefited tnt as their was obvious signs of mass import consumption as well as cries from the manufacturing sector for support from the government to help them boost their exports (implyig they had space to ramp up production).
c). With covid import consumption still remains high but manufacturers productive capacity has shrunken (as evidenced by plant closures and staff cuts). A devaluation therefore will not bring all of the intended benefits. Additionally, given current economic hardships following the loss of employment over the stay at home order, raising prices of imported goods (which is what will happen with a devaluation) serves to only worsen the ecomomic impact of covid 19.

I hope all points above clear up why a devaluation would have been good before... but now... since the emergence of covid 19... it does not make sense anymore

[Penguin]

I wont comment on each of the responses on my post on the devaluation... just note the following:

a). A devaluation is beneficial when import consumption is unsustainable and when exporters have enough profuctive capacities to benefit from the it (exporters goods and services become cheaper in the foreign market when they is a devaluation).
b). prior to covid a devaluation would have benefited tnt as their was obvious signs of mass import consumption as well as cries from the manufacturing sector for support from the government to help them boost their exports (implyig they had space to ramp up production).
c). With covid import consumption still remains high but manufacturers productive capacity has shrunken (as evidenced by plant closures and staff cuts). A devaluation therefore will not bring all of the intended benefits. Additionally, given current economic hardships following the loss of employment over the stay at home order, raising prices of imported goods (which is what will happen with a devaluation) serves to only worsen the ecomomic impact of covid 19.

I hope all points above clear up why a devaluation would have been good before... but now... since the emergence of covid 19... it does not make sense anymore

I'll tell you why you might be wrong here, but it's very debatable so please counter-argue me.

Firstly, we need to avoid economic collapse. Oil and gas prices are sheit as world demand falls and renewable investments seem like the best long term investment. Covid has ravaged our local private sector which revenues falling by at least 30%. Many first world countries expected a V shaped recovery. We hoped for that too, but with mass layoffs and the general fear in the economy, I can see 30% being realistic in the long term (2-3 years).

During times of crisis there is a huge risk of capital flight from emerging markets like ours. Why? investors seek safe haven assets, thus any investment here will be seen as a risk.

Copied and pasted this from another site:

Advantages of devaluation
1. Exports become cheaper and more competitive to foreign buyers. Therefore, this provides a boost for domestic demand and could lead to job creation in the export sector.

2. Higher level of exports should lead to an improvement in the current account deficit. This is important if the country has a large current account deficit due to a lack of competitiveness.

3. Higher exports and aggregate demand (AD) can lead to higher rates of economic growth.

These all benefit us and makes us a good investment.


Disadvantages of devaluation
1. Is likely to cause inflation because:

Imports more expensive (any imported good or raw material will increase in price)
AD increases causing demand pull inflation.
Firms / exporters have less incentive to cut costs because they can rely on the devaluation to improve competitiveness. The concern is in the long-term devaluation may lead to lower productivity because of the decline in incentives.

This is expected yes, but it also pushes us toward locally made goods and services


2. Reduces the purchasing power of citizens abroad. e.g. more expensive to go on holiday abroad.
Not necessarily a bad thing as citizens will spend that money locally now (hopefully)

3. A large and rapid devaluation may scare off international investors. It makes investors less willing to hold government debt because it is effectively reducing the value of their holdings.

Yes but that's why we do it in small increments, slowly, maybe to 7 to 7.5

4. If consumers have debts, e.g. mortgages in foreign currency – after a devaluation they will see a sharp rise in the cost of their debt repayments. This occurred in Hungary when many had taken out a mortgage in foreign currency.

Doesn't affect most of us, but could affect government's loans

[elec2020]

^ ah yes this is what i like to see... well crafted responses... penguin u raised alot of valid points... and in a country with competent and responsible policymakers and realistic businessmen and businesswomen a devaluation could infact dramatically boost trinidad and tobago ecpnomic activity... in fact... managed properly with buy in from all sides it can bring us iut of this current slump... however... policymalers and businesses are selfish... why would they want a devaluation... when it calls for alot of self sacrifice to get gains possibly 3 to 5 years down the line... imo they are pushing for a devaluation as it immediately boosts the value of their foreign assets (which they would have more of than the average man)... so for instance if i have 100k US sit down in the bank... if their is a devaluation from lets say 6.7 to 10... easy easy i almost get 400k extra... that imo is the reason why these forces want a devaluation... but lets say that they pushing for the devaluation to cut household import consumption... if that is in fact the focus of the devaluation... then sadly most of what u outlined earlier will not be realized... as... to my knowledge... their is no talk about devaluation to help exports... devaluation to boost demand for domestic goods and services... devaluation to bosst employment (as businesses would be expected to ramp up production)... nor devaluation to (essentially) discourage government debt (so far government debt is rising lol)... thus the devaluation will only have a negative impact on us as our policymakers and business people to narrow minded in thought... i could be wrong penguin... but after years of seeing policymakers come and go... forgive me for being sceptical on realizing the full benefits of a devaluation as time and time again poor planning and greed has been the downfall of any major decision in tnt

[Dizzy28]

The name speaks for itself though. It a perception index so opinion would count more than facts.

It's the reason the Global Competitive Index administered by ALJGSB moved to version 4 in 2018. To remove the subjectivity inherent in it.

^^ How does one measure who more corrupt-
# of corrupttion scandals/# of years in power
Value of corruption per capita??
Some other measure?

I always like to know how does one determine this or is it just feels and totes

Corruption Perception Index?
https://www.transparency.org/en/countri ... and-tobago

I cant find a country score over time, and I don't have time to scrape the data and do a chart to show our CPI over the last n years.

[shake d livin wake d dead]

^^^^ to split d unc votes ? cause we know pnm votes doh get split ...

Most likely , and how come PNM votes don't split? What inspires such loyalty that UNC and others can't match? Even along purely racial lines, why is the UNC vote so vulnerable to being split with third parties?

As Eric Williams said.... put up a crappo for the PNM and they will vote for it. Most base PNM supporters vote along racial lines, UNC people vote for other reasons.... therefore if there is a better prospect that can create change for the better they would vote accordingly.

The PNM base is just pure blind loyalty

Can you explain the PNM loyalist vote in 1986 (33-3)? and if that is too far back for your memory how about 2010 (29-12)?

2015? UNC voters unanimously supports their party sink or sail so what are the other reasons for the UNC voters to stay loyal to their Indian party other than race?

The NAR was seen as a black party and that's why PNM ppl turned.

It was also due to vast PNM corruption coming from Francis Prevat , Jonny O, Hugh Francis and the recession.

Had the NAR been a perceive indo party no way in hell they wining in 1986. The afro popular was and is still not mature in their voting and thinking patterns

TT Africans are still lock in to tribal voting.

Raw but truth as usual. PNM not afraid of any indo party because they know the tribal dynamics will play off during elections. What they are afraid of and would not tolerate in any circumstances is a charismatic afro forming a party and getting popular especially among pnm strongholds. That is why PNM targeted Jack Warner from the beginning and now Watson Duke. If Jack didn't do his fifa foolishness, he would have split the PNM vote while he was in UNC or under ILP. If Watson takes Tobago, his party can now come Trinidad and work among the pnm strongholds. Once that happens you will see frothup. You understand why Rowley is uncomfortable and talking stupidness about not forgiving tobago if dey vote Duke?

I think Duke could take Tobago East...gonna be close in the other seat....just imagine it ends up 20-20-1....who Duke gonna side with????

[EFFECTIC DESIGNS]

If Duke win Tobago then Tobago is fcked.

Rowley will jam a umbrella up they backside

[elec2020]

^ i thought it was more or less understood that duke siding with unc... but giving what happen last time when unc sided outright with a party in bago they lost... so they learnt they lesson and staying in the passenger seat this time

[one eye]

If you bring back Kamla this country will become a wasted land!

Vote for PNM on August 10th because it is the right thing to do! T&T does not need Kamla and her cabal to curse the land with obeah.

[Dohplaydat]

Interesting take on marginal constituencies

In 2002, Ghany designed a formula for the calculation of the outer limit of marginality. The inner limit of marginality will always be zero; but the outer limit is a moving target from election to election. Utilising his formula and applying it to the 2015 election results, constituencies won by a margin of 3,400 votes or less represent (based on the data) marginal constituencies.
As a result, the following are the marginal constituencies for the 2020 general elections:
Barataria/San Juan (540);
Chaguanas East (1,424);
Cumuto/Manzanilla (3,179);
La Horquetta/Talparo (2,822);
Mayaro (2,894);
Moruga/Tableland (533);
Pointe-a-Pierre (1,506);
San Fernando West (3,310);
St Joseph (1,633)

https://wired868.com/2020/07/09/st-jose ... TUQ2sUyeFM

Added in the results:

Barataria/San Juan (540); PP 2010, UNC 2015
Chaguanas East (1,424); PP 2010, UNC 2015
Cumuto/Manzanilla (3,179); PP 2010, UNC 2015
La Horquetta/Talparo (2,822); PP 2010, PNM 2015
Mayaro (2,894); PP 2010, PNM 2015
Moruga/Tableland (533); PP 2010, PNM 2015
Pointe-a-Pierre (1,506); PP 2010, UNC 2015
San Fernando West (3,310); PP 2010, PNM 2015
St Joseph (1,633); PP 2010, PNM 2015

I would add Tunapuna as well as Sangre Grande, though they both definitely slant toward PNM now.

Toco/ Sangre Grande; PP 2010, PNM 2015
Tunapuna; PP 2010, PNM 2015

These are the seats UNC will need to win back, remember they need 3 to win. (18 were won in 2015).

Of these 3, it's possible St Joseph, Moruga/Tableland will go back to UNC. However, I doubt they can win anything else.

UNC not winning St Joseph, not by a long shot.

[zoom rader]

If Duke win Tobago then Tobago is fcked.

Rowley will jam a umbrella up they backside

That's if PNM can steal or corrupt the elections .

[redmanjp]

7 DAYS TO GET REGISTERED! Wednesday 15th July is the deadline.

[zoom rader]

7 DAYS TO GET REGISTERED! Wednesday 15th July is the deadline.

Golden Grove ready

[5onDfloor]

^^^^ to split d unc votes ? cause we know pnm votes doh get split ...

Most likely , and how come PNM votes don't split? What inspires such loyalty that UNC and others can't match? Even along purely racial lines, why is the UNC vote so vulnerable to being split with third parties?

As Eric Williams said.... put up a crappo for the PNM and they will vote for it. Most base PNM supporters vote along racial lines, UNC people vote for other reasons.... therefore if there is a better prospect that can create change for the better they would vote accordingly.

The PNM base is just pure blind loyalty

Can you explain the PNM loyalist vote in 1986 (33-3)? and if that is too far back for your memory how about 2010 (29-12)?

2015? UNC voters unanimously supports their party sink or sail so what are the other reasons for the UNC voters to stay loyal to their Indian party other than race?

The NAR was seen as a black party and that's why PNM ppl turned.

It was also due to vast PNM corruption coming from Francis Prevat , Jonny O, Hugh Francis and the recession.

Had the NAR been a perceive indo party no way in hell they wining in 1986. The afro popular was and is still not mature in their voting and thinking patterns

TT Africans are still lock in to tribal voting.

Care to explain the tribal voting in 2010? U seem to gloss over it.

[zoom rader]

^^^^ to split d unc votes ? cause we know pnm votes doh get split ...

Most likely , and how come PNM votes don't split? What inspires such loyalty that UNC and others can't match? Even along purely racial lines, why is the UNC vote so vulnerable to being split with third parties?

As Eric Williams said.... put up a crappo for the PNM and they will vote for it. Most base PNM supporters vote along racial lines, UNC people vote for other reasons.... therefore if there is a better prospect that can create change for the better they would vote accordingly.

The PNM base is just pure blind loyalty

Can you explain the PNM loyalist vote in 1986 (33-3)? and if that is too far back for your memory how about 2010 (29-12)?

2015? UNC voters unanimously supports their party sink or sail so what are the other reasons for the UNC voters to stay loyal to their Indian party other than race?

The NAR was seen as a black party and that's why PNM ppl turned.

It was also due to vast PNM corruption coming from Francis Prevat , Jonny O, Hugh Francis and the recession.

Had the NAR been a perceive indo party no way in hell they wining in 1986. The afro popular was and is still not mature in their voting and thinking patterns

TT Africans are still lock in to tribal voting.

Care to explain the tribal voting in 2010? U seem to gloss over it.

What tribal voting?

It was a one off accumulations of different parties. No tribal voting there in forming the then goverment

[VexXx Dogg]

The name speaks for itself though. It a perception index so opinion would count more than facts.

It's the reason the Global Competitive Index administered by ALJGSB moved to version 4 in 2018. To remove the subjectivity inherent in it.

^^ How does one measure who more corrupt-
# of corrupttion scandals/# of years in power
Value of corruption per capita??
Some other measure?

I always like to know how does one determine this or is it just feels and totes

Corruption Perception Index?
https://www.transparency.org/en/countri ... and-tobago

I cant find a country score over time, and I don't have time to scrape the data and do a chart to show our CPI over the last n years.

The thing is a lot of latent indicators can only be measured by perception. *shrug*

[reboot2020]

Alleged on the fly rule making by the EBC! Bring in international the observers.

[paid_influencer]

^was watching that same video. EBC exposed for all to see

[Dizzy28]

Rowley has already said the PNM does not enter into arrangements with other parties when asked about Duke

^^^^ to split d unc votes ? cause we know pnm votes doh get split ...

Most likely , and how come PNM votes don't split? What inspires such loyalty that UNC and others can't match? Even along purely racial lines, why is the UNC vote so vulnerable to being split with third parties?

As Eric Williams said.... put up a crappo for the PNM and they will vote for it. Most base PNM supporters vote along racial lines, UNC people vote for other reasons.... therefore if there is a better prospect that can create change for the better they would vote accordingly.

The PNM base is just pure blind loyalty

Can you explain the PNM loyalist vote in 1986 (33-3)? and if that is too far back for your memory how about 2010 (29-12)?

2015? UNC voters unanimously supports their party sink or sail so what are the other reasons for the UNC voters to stay loyal to their Indian party other than race?

The NAR was seen as a black party and that's why PNM ppl turned.

It was also due to vast PNM corruption coming from Francis Prevat , Jonny O, Hugh Francis and the recession.

Had the NAR been a perceive indo party no way in hell they wining in 1986. The afro popular was and is still not mature in their voting and thinking patterns

TT Africans are still lock in to tribal voting.

Raw but truth as usual. PNM not afraid of any indo party because they know the tribal dynamics will play off during elections. What they are afraid of and would not tolerate in any circumstances is a charismatic afro forming a party and getting popular especially among pnm strongholds. That is why PNM targeted Jack Warner from the beginning and now Watson Duke. If Jack didn't do his fifa foolishness, he would have split the PNM vote while he was in UNC or under ILP. If Watson takes Tobago, his party can now come Trinidad and work among the pnm strongholds. Once that happens you will see frothup. You understand why Rowley is uncomfortable and talking stupidness about not forgiving tobago if dey vote Duke?

I think Duke could take Tobago East...gonna be close in the other seat....just imagine it ends up 20-20-1....who Duke gonna side with????

[Dizzy28]

Then we back to red say, yellow say. All the while the rich get richer the poor remain the same and Randull totes bout Moonilal long wheel base Jaguar

The name speaks for itself though. It a perception index so opinion would count more than facts.

It's the reason the Global Competitive Index administered by ALJGSB moved to version 4 in 2018. To remove the subjectivity inherent in it.

^^ How does one measure who more corrupt-
# of corrupttion scandals/# of years in power
Value of corruption per capita??
Some other measure?

I always like to know how does one determine this or is it just feels and totes

Corruption Perception Index?
https://www.transparency.org/en/countri ... and-tobago

I cant find a country score over time, and I don't have time to scrape the data and do a chart to show our CPI over the last n years.

The thing is a lot of latent indicators can only be measured by perception. *shrug*

[eliteauto]

PEA is correct, that vid shows what the PEP is about

[shake d livin wake d dead]

If kamla see the results of this poll, she drunk one time

[zoom rader]

Rowley has already said the PNM does not enter into arrangements with other parties when asked about Duke

^^^^ to split d unc votes ? cause we know pnm votes doh get split ...

Most likely , and how come PNM votes don't split? What inspires such loyalty that UNC and others can't match? Even along purely racial lines, why is the UNC vote so vulnerable to being split with third parties?

As Eric Williams said.... put up a crappo for the PNM and they will vote for it. Most base PNM supporters vote along racial lines, UNC people vote for other reasons.... therefore if there is a better prospect that can create change for the better they would vote accordingly.

The PNM base is just pure blind loyalty

Can you explain the PNM loyalist vote in 1986 (33-3)? and if that is too far back for your memory how about 2010 (29-12)?

2015? UNC voters unanimously supports their party sink or sail so what are the other reasons for the UNC voters to stay loyal to their Indian party other than race?

The NAR was seen as a black party and that's why PNM ppl turned.

It was also due to vast PNM corruption coming from Francis Prevat , Jonny O, Hugh Francis and the recession.

Had the NAR been a perceive indo party no way in hell they wining in 1986. The afro popular was and is still not mature in their voting and thinking patterns

TT Africans are still lock in to tribal voting.

Raw but truth as usual. PNM not afraid of any indo party because they know the tribal dynamics will play off during elections. What they are afraid of and would not tolerate in any circumstances is a charismatic afro forming a party and getting popular especially among pnm strongholds. That is why PNM targeted Jack Warner from the beginning and now Watson Duke. If Jack didn't do his fifa foolishness, he would have split the PNM vote while he was in UNC or under ILP. If Watson takes Tobago, his party can now come Trinidad and work among the pnm strongholds. Once that happens you will see frothup. You understand why Rowley is uncomfortable and talking stupidness about not forgiving tobago if dey vote Duke?

I think Duke could take Tobago East...gonna be close in the other seat....just imagine it ends up 20-20-1....who Duke gonna side with????

Yup they have closed minds and that is what they instill on their voters.

PNM not opened to new ideas

[eliteauto]

Cannabis activist Nazma Muller is contesting the Arouca/Maloney seat as an independent

[EFFECTIC DESIGNS]

The sad thing is, she being in parliament would actually be one of the best things to happen in Trinidad but most people would view her as a lunatic so she won't get any votes.

People still have not gotten over the propaganda spread by America regarding Marijuana being the Devil Plant that sends you mad and worse than cocaine etc

When I was doing my AC and Refrigeration technician course I met a member of the TTPS, oldish African fella still in the force he is a sergeant I believe or is it inspector? anyways regardless I asked him a question regarding Cannabis and why it was illegal at the time Rowley didn't yet pass the law. He responded that it was a result of white colonialism and demonizing of a drug for monetary gains and nothing more. He was in full support of legalizing it and also he was an Atheist but not necessarily a die hard PNM he had voted PP in 2010

He was very well educated in history and science it was always a joy having a conversation with such an educated gentleman, so next time allyuh say 3 cxc passes and make fun of officers remember there are exceptionally intelligent ones in the service.

[zoom rader]

The sad thing is, she being in parliament would actually be one of the best things to happen in Trinidad but most people would view her as a lunatic so she won't get any votes.

People still have not gotten over the propaganda spread by America regarding Marijuana being the Devil Plant that sends you mad and worse than cocaine etc

When I was doing my AC and Refrigeration technician course I met a member of the TTPS, oldish African fella still in the force he is a sergeant I believe or is it inspector? anyways regardless I asked him a question regarding Cannabis and why it was illegal at the time Rowley didn't yet pass the law. He responded that it was a result of white colonialism and demonizing of a drug for monetary gains and nothing more. He was in full support of legalizing it and also he was an Atheist but not necessarily a die hard PNM he had voted PP in 2010

He was very well educated in history and science it was always a joy having a conversation with such an educated gentleman, so next time allyuh say 3 cxc passes and make fun of officers remember there are exceptionally intelligent ones in the service.

I went to length to explain this a few years ago.

It was injun sadus that smoked ganja, before 1947 it legal to buy the herb in stores.

The story is some white kid stated to smoke and could not handle it. His parents pushed for it to be outlawed and that is how it got banned.

[5onDfloor]

^^^^ to split d unc votes ? cause we know pnm votes doh get split ...

Most likely , and how come PNM votes don't split? What inspires such loyalty that UNC and others can't match? Even along purely racial lines, why is the UNC vote so vulnerable to being split with third parties?

As Eric Williams said.... put up a crappo for the PNM and they will vote for it. Most base PNM supporters vote along racial lines, UNC people vote for other reasons.... therefore if there is a better prospect that can create change for the better they would vote accordingly.

The PNM base is just pure blind loyalty

Can you explain the PNM loyalist vote in 1986 (33-3)? and if that is too far back for your memory how about 2010 (29-12)?

2015? UNC voters unanimously supports their party sink or sail so what are the other reasons for the UNC voters to stay loyal to their Indian party other than race?

The NAR was seen as a black party and that's why PNM ppl turned.

It was also due to vast PNM corruption coming from Francis Prevat , Jonny O, Hugh Francis and the recession.

Had the NAR been a perceive indo party no way in hell they wining in 1986. The afro popular was and is still not mature in their voting and thinking patterns

TT Africans are still lock in to tribal voting.

Care to explain the tribal voting in 2010? U seem to gloss over it.

What tribal voting?

It was a one off accumulations of different parties. No tribal voting there in forming the then goverment

Disingenuous your response. The seats the PP (Indian Party) won in the EAST-WEST corridor in 2010 was a direct support of the pnm\black\tribal voters. it negates the narrative that pnm\black vote is tribal...Only one race has shown the capacity to go against the grain. The PP were very unpopular in 2015 and they still got 18 seats losing not one strong east indian dominant seat PNM didnt have this luxury in 2010..so who's tribal or vote only along racial lines?

[EFFECTIC DESIGNS]

^ Tribal voters? nah you mad.

I agree tho the PP got black votes in the East West in 2010, but ask yourself this which PNM you know does ever vote for any party other than PNM? that does never happen

The black votes that went to the PP in 2010 was from COP supporters a large chunk of people who want a 3rd party

Doh fool yourself thinking PNM people would ever vote for UNC, that never happening. That is a lie spread by the PNM and their supporters to make themselves feel virtuous, they catch me with that lie in the past I feel for it hook, line and sinker until I actually saw all my PNM padners from school on facebook supporting literally any and everything the PNM does.

Infact back in 2010 all of them voted PNM, then coming to lie about voting PPG? these f.0cking people for real?

Yes it has some and till always have SOME about 1% of people will cross party line, but doh fool yourself thinking that number is what made UNC win in 2010. If anything the Feminist movement was far more responsible for Kamla winning than anything else, except for PNM feminists them does always vote PNM, one ah them said on the radio once Isha Wells program that them not voting for no Indian.

[matr1x]

Pnm manufacturers a crisis in 2015 and leaves us in real chaos in 2020

[elec2020]

^Oil prices dropped by over 50 per cent in 2015... PNM manufactured that too aint... PNM did not manufacture no crisis in 2015... all net oil exporters were in problems when OPEC tried to compete out shale oil and gas... learn the reasons behind the collapse in economic activity between 2015 and 2019 before making up things... i not fond of PNM's tenure but dont make up things to suit your narrative

[Gladiator]

Wasn't the manufacturered crisis that the country had no morney and the treasury empty...

Yet they got billions for:
Red House
President House
Paintings
Mercedes benzes
White Hall
Tobago Rowley Residence
Brian Lara Stadium
Curepe interchange
Toco Highway
Tobago Airport
POS general hospital refurb
Arima Hospital
PT Fortin hospital

I guess the duen is really a leprechun and have a pot of gold stashed somewhere.

^Oil prices dropped by over 50 per cent in 2015... PNM manufactured that too aint... PNM did not manufacture no crisis in 2015... all net oil exporters were in problems when OPEC tried to compete out shale oil and gas... learn the reasons behind the collapse in economic activity between 2015 and 2019 before making up things... i not fond of PNM's tenure but dont make up things to suit your narrative