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The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided on Thursday not to cut oil production, despite sliding oil prices.
Brent crude oil fell more than $3 to under $75 a barrel—a fresh four-year low—on the news while West Texas Intermediate (WTI)—dropped below $70. Global oil prices have plunged since peaking in June, and Brent crude has lost around a third of its price from $115 a barrel.
Following a meeting of OPEC in Vienna, the oil minister of leading member Saudi Arabia, Ali Al-Naimi, was asked whether the group had decided not to reduce its output from 30 million barrels per day. He responded: "That is right".
Speaking to CNBC, Nigeria's Petroleum Minister and newly elected OPEC president, Diezani Alison-Madueke, said that non-OPEC oil producers had to "share the burden" of any future cut in production.
"Of course we are hoping over the next year we will see more stability," she added
Neil Atkinson, the head of analysis at Lloyd's List Intelligence, told CNBC that oil will slide further in the coming weeks but without any "massive downside."
He added that Saudi Arabia was right to be patient in making a decision and will use the next three months to put further pressure on non-OPEC producers—like Russia—to come to an agreement on production.
One of the main pressure points on the price of oil—and on OPEC to cut its production—has been the success of the U.S. oil shale industry.
The ball to help monitor and regulate supply is now firmly in the U.S.'s court, analysts from Barclays Instant Insights said in a commodities research note. "In keeping the production target at 30 mb/d, OPEC is clearly signaling that it will no longer bear the burden of market adjustment alone and this decision puts the onus on other producers, especially US tight oil to adjust as well," the note said.
Robbie Diamond, President and CEO of Securing America's Future Energy (SAFE), a lobby group that works to improve U.S. energy security, commented on the OPEC decision in a statement.
"Whatever OPEC's decision on oil production levels, its attempt to control this commodity—the lifeblood of the global economy—exemplifies the importance of reducing oil's monopoly over U.S. transportation by pursuing policies and technologies that can free us from this cartel's influence," he said.
In the nearer term, oil could sell-off, said Petroleum Policy Intelligency CEO Bill Farren-Price.
"This is a very strong supply situation that they (OPEC) are not prepared to respond to at present," he told CNBC on Thursday.
"You are going to see excessive stock builds and a lot of oil on the water and this is going to lead to a serious market reaction."
OME $1.3 billion will have to be slashed from expenditure in Budget 2015 and another $507 million cut from the fuel-subsidy, in a critical adjustment of the national accounts as this country begins to feel the effect of falling global oil-prices.
As a result, Finance Minister Larry Howai yesterday in the House of Representatives basically outlined that each Ministry must on average cut $45 million from its spending. He made the comment as he replied to Opposition queries as to whether the Budget would be downwardly revised.
Thrice, as he gave various scenarios, Howai spoke of possibly reducing the fuel-subsidy which the Government pays to National Petroleum (NP) in order to reduce prices at the pump for motorists.
His keenly-anticipated statement came as OPEC floods the world with oil to try to lower oil- prices to below the US$75 to US$80 per barrel that United States shale-oil producers need to offset their high “fracking” costs.
Last September’s Budget was based on an expected oil-price of US$80 per barrel and a natural gas-price of US$2.75 per mmBTU, to generate $60 billion in revenues (including a US$21 billion energy revenue) to pay for $64 billion in expenditure, leaving a deficit of $4 billion.
However, Howai yesterday spelled out three possible scenarios for world oil-prices and how TT’s Budget would respond in each case. For each scenario, he said the particular loss in revenue would be partially offset by Government paying less and less of the fuel subsidy.
His first scenario is for oil at US$75 per barrel and gas at US$2.75 per mmBTU which would cut annual revenues by $849 million (made up of $535 million in lost royalties and $269 million in lost taxes). He said that a $169 million cut in the fuel subsidy would worsen the deficit by another $680 million.
Howai’s second scenario was oil falling to US$60 and gas staying at US$2.75 which would cut revenues by $2.4 billion per year. “This will be partially offset by savings on the fuel subsidy which will be reduced by $676 million,” he said.
He gave the third and most-likely scenario. “Our own expectation is for the price to decline initially closer to US$60 per barrel but eventually average between US$65 and US$70 per barrel,” said Howai solemnly. “We expect that the price of gas will come down in tandem with this decline in the price of oil but we expect that it will remain above the US$2.75 reference price used in the Budget,” he forecast.
“Using a scenario therefore of US$65 per barrel and US$2.75 for gas, the reduction in total revenue will be $1,879 million on an annualised basis. This will be offset by savings on the fuel subsidy of $507 million. The overall fiscal deficit will increase by $1,372 million or 0.7 percent of GDP.”
Howai said that while all of this does not pose an immediate risk to the 2015 Budget, prudence dictates appropriate action to maintain a level of fiscal balance, given the medium-term trajectory of oil and gas prices.
He declared, “Ministries will therefore be required to review their budgets to determine areas where expenditure can be suppressed to make up the shortfall.”
On the plus-side, Howai said the energy sector has this year drawn US$3 billion in foreign investment, has seen the award of 12 production-sharing contracts and the operation of more rigs, even as the country’s foreign-exchange reserves stand at US$11 billion. However he noted a worsening of Petrotrin’s debt from $3.3 billion in 2002 to $12 billion in 2010 to a current figure of $14 billion. He said he is asking Petrotrin to identify appropriate responses to the fall in world oil-prices.
Howai said he understands public concerns over low oil-prices but is confident TT’s financial buffers are strong enough to address immediate concerns.
“The country’s overall fiscal position and revenue flows remain healthy. There is however no room for complacency and the Ministry will continue to monitor what is happening in the global environment and to refine our remedial fiscal measures to ensure that the country can respond appropriately to changes in the market for oil and gas.”
St Joseph MP Terrence Deyalsingh asked if the soft oil-prices would mandate a revision of the Budget including social items such as the Baby Grant?
Howai replied, “Any changes would be very marginal to the programme of Government. We expect that the changes that would be effected as a result of this would be relatively small. If for example, and I use this just as an example, we were to spread the increase in the deficit over each Ministry the net effect would be a reduction in expenditure in each Ministry of about $45 million, which is relatively small in relation to the budgets of each ministry so we do not expect that there would be need for any significant changes such as referred to by the Honourable Member.”
Deyalsingh later told reporters that a keen eye must be kept on energy-revenues. “He tried to make it seem not a very important item but it’s something we have to keep our eyes on. He was trying to trivialise the whole thing, because in a previous debate he was lauding the high price of oil due to instability between Russia and the Ukraine. He was very joyful over the high price of oil but now is equally nonplussed by the low price of oil, so he was waffling today.”
He said it is cause for concern to have five years successively of deficit budgets, plus now the falling of world oil-prices, and possibly also soft gas-prices. “We have to be concerned.” Newsday was unable to contact Howai later for clarification about the reduction in the fuel subsidy which this year was initially budgeted as $4.5 billion.
bluesclues wrote:howai playing in control and have a plan. what he means to say is he didnt expect this and had no plans for this happening during his tenure. he bonx een with he heavy deficit and ppg squandering money while we oil reserves at risk of running low within 10 yrs i believe was the last figure i got.
i feel tt might end up defaulting on world bank loans in the future but it wont be their problem because they wont be in office.
come in, suck the treasury dry, mashup the place and buss out smiling. that was the ppg 'crime plan'
zoom rader wrote:bluesclues wrote:howai playing in control and have a plan. what he means to say is he didnt expect this and had no plans for this happening during his tenure. he bonx een with he heavy deficit and ppg squandering money while we oil reserves at risk of running low within 10 yrs i believe was the last figure i got.
i feel tt might end up defaulting on world bank loans in the future but it wont be their problem because they wont be in office.
come in, suck the treasury dry, mashup the place and buss out smiling. that was the ppg 'crime plan'
Was propaganda bullchit you speaking of?
Where did they suck the treasury dry?
Where did they mash up the place?
Where did they squander money?
zoom rader wrote:
Was propaganda bullchit you speaking of?
Where did they suck the treasury dry?
Where did they mash up the place?
Where did they squander money?
bluesclues wrote:zoom rader wrote:
Was propaganda bullchit you speaking of?
Where did they suck the treasury dry?
through deficit spending in the billions, this is done through loans from the world bank. howai was counting on those oil reserves as he reassured us when we had concerns of deficit spending since he came in. i predicted he was going to have heavy deficit spening when he became finance minister. so said, so done.Where did they mash up the place?
the mashup sautt. and the country seems to have an increase not just in violent crime but how violent the crime is, real monsters surfacing out of hard times. you thought i was talking about the flood. look they analysis saying all what i say about the cause of the flooding in mayaro now. trained experts. lolWhere did they squander money?
our highways projects all have been overly high priced, added to that they budget to spend money on alot of things that we i dont think really need. what was the figure? 15 billion on armoured vehicles which will be expensive to maintain, and according to the info i got they wont be trained on how to operate them or maintain them. and a host of other things that dont come to mind atm, but at the end of the day, tally up the loans we take and ask yourself if trinidad really got value for their money. the health sector is a disgusting place if i break a hand i rather splint it home than go in the hospital..serious. as a government they spent alotttt of money but what we have to show for it besides new road and box drain. arent there much more important things they couldve done with the money? i mean i support the new road and flyover projects i just think they were all much more than they should cost.
now they want to cut poor ppl work in cepep because they spent money and as our intelligent rulers never seemed to have any plans for in case oil price fall and all the indicators were there. they had all the information, oil reserves running low and the deficit spending spend it out in loans almost. now they want cut government subsidies on gas. now they looking for areas where they could save pennies, but wasnt interested in saving billions for in case oil price fall. sound justifiable?
salvation4U wrote:if oil price go down ent things suppose to get cheaper?
salvation4U wrote:if oil price go down ent things suppose to get cheaper?
zoom rader wrote:
I don't want to call you ignorant as yet but do some research and ask yourself the following questions.
1. Is trini an oil based economy or gas economy .
2. Does trini sell oil or collect the taxes from the oil producers.
3. Does trini have 700 million barrels in oil reserves to which most are capped in the southland for future use by producers.
4. Did sautt put a dent in crime and solved any?
5. Why are illegal and legal immigrants coming here, is it because they see a land of betterment and opportunities that trinis dont see?
toyolink wrote:salvation4U wrote:if oil price go down ent things suppose to get cheaper?
In theory they should but what difference would it make if income levels fall due to shrinkage in economic activity.
The dangers of being a hydro-carbon based economy rears its ugly head again.
The win-falls when things were buoyant continue to fail to be used to create more diversification.
....Here we are again 'sitting ducks' total exposed to the cyclical nature of the business.
High-tech US oil producers need $80 per barrel to be profitable. Saudis need only $50.
1. Is trini an oil based economy or gas economy .
2. Does trini sell oil or collect the taxes from the oil producers.
3. Does trini have 700 million barrels in oil reserves to which most are capped in the southland for future use by producers.
16 cycles wrote:brent crude @ 70USDHigh-tech US oil producers need $80 per barrel to be profitable. Saudis need only $50.
http://oil-price.net/en/articles/oil-pr ... uction.php
interesting times....
nismaniac wrote:name fixed....blueshasnoclue
I cannot believe that some ppl so blind. Caroni, Couva,Highway to Point, Valencia, Diego Martin, Barrackpore, Rivulet rd,thousands of major and minor road repairs, just now Curepe....Couva childrens hosp. Couva sports center and thats just what I know of. Its only been 5 yrs sir.....I hope you dont live in front of your computer and have no idea what is happening in your own backyard
16 cycles wrote:brent crude @ 70USDHigh-tech US oil producers need $80 per barrel to be profitable. Saudis need only $50.
http://oil-price.net/en/articles/oil-pr ... uction.php
interesting times....
Redman wrote:Lemme take a stab.1. Is trini an oil based economy or gas economy .
Gas primarily-but oil impacts a larger and broader cross section of the population through the direct employment...Unfortunately past administrations figured it was one or the other.What we seeing is the result of a myopic management of our resource base.2. Does trini sell oil or collect the taxes from the oil producers.
Both...We sell about 35000 BOPD of crude and condensate,this is pegged to Brent prices(not really important now with the spread narrowed).Some of the recent finds may add to this number since they are producing 42 deg API.
We also tax the producers.32-60% of WTI is collected in Royalties,user fees etc.We then tax the profits of the companies.3. Does trini have 700 million barrels in oil reserves to which most are capped in the southland for future use by producers.
I believe the 700M is a accurate...I cant say about whether the wells are capped.
AFAIK:(and please correct me if Im wrong)
On shore Petrotrin is the license holder and sub licenses (farm out/lease out/IPSC)the blocks out.
The state through MOE retains title to the land and the sub surface resources.
The licenses are to bring oil to the surface.
..I do not believe that the producer has discretion as to produce or not.
snatman wrote:bought a couple hundred shares of EXXI@ $4, trying a small thing, no big loss if it ent work out.
bluesclues wrote:snatman wrote:bought a couple hundred shares of EXXI@ $4, trying a small thing, no big loss if it ent work out.
sounds like you have money to burn. buying into a sunken market is alot of the time beneficial for catching rises but very risky when you're dealing with a commodity that is slowly becoming obsolete. id suggest you day trade to make money for sure over the period and be sure to get out before each drop. i couldve doubled that $800 investment for you in less than a week.
snatman wrote:bluesclues wrote:snatman wrote:bought a couple hundred shares of EXXI@ $4, trying a small thing, no big loss if it ent work out.
sounds like you have money to burn. buying into a sunken market is alot of the time beneficial for catching rises but very risky when you're dealing with a commodity that is slowly becoming obsolete. id suggest you day trade to make money for sure over the period and be sure to get out before each drop. i couldve doubled that $800 investment for you in less than a week.
Double you say eh, with that track recored, you must be a multi-multi-millionaire !
Like i said, i tried a thing. It ent looking too good, but still too early to say if it failed.
bluesclues wrote:snatman wrote:bluesclues wrote:snatman wrote:bought a couple hundred shares of EXXI@ $4, trying a small thing, no big loss if it ent work out.
sounds like you have money to burn. buying into a sunken market is alot of the time beneficial for catching rises but very risky when you're dealing with a commodity that is slowly becoming obsolete. id suggest you day trade to make money for sure over the period and be sure to get out before each drop. i couldve doubled that $800 investment for you in less than a week.
Double you say eh, with that track recored, you must be a multi-multi-millionaire !
Like i said, i tried a thing. It ent looking too good, but still too early to say if it failed.
i aint reach that status yet lol, but on average, for every $10 i lose trading, i regain 100. and i dont lose often. just did a double up this week and added 30% to that today alone. hard work and vigilance, sleep patterns screwed, but money afi make. i have a small investment group online. will be approaching them for more investment funds for another present opportunity this week. the more you invest the more you can make in smaller fluctuations. so yeah always looking to beef up my investment portfolio ;P
snatman wrote:Good for you! I struggle to make 25% a year, while u making 90% per trade!bluesclues wrote:snatman wrote:bluesclues wrote:snatman wrote:bought a couple hundred shares of EXXI@ $4, trying a small thing, no big loss if it ent work out.
sounds like you have money to burn. buying into a sunken market is alot of the time beneficial for catching rises but very risky when you're dealing with a commodity that is slowly becoming obsolete. id suggest you day trade to make money for sure over the period and be sure to get out before each drop. i couldve doubled that $800 investment for you in less than a week.
Double you say eh, with that track recored, you must be a multi-multi-millionaire !
Like i said, i tried a thing. It ent looking too good, but still too early to say if it failed.
i aint reach that status yet lol, but on average, for every $10 i lose trading, i regain 100. and i dont lose often. just did a double up this week and added 30% to that today alone. hard work and vigilance, sleep patterns screwed, but money afi make. i have a small investment group online. will be approaching them for more investment funds for another present opportunity this week. the more you invest the more you can make in smaller fluctuations. so yeah always looking to beef up my investment portfolio ;P
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