2010 and 2011 Tropical weather discussion

[Michael Knight...]

Maraval Traffic is not terrible, jus slow movin, i expect it to get worse. Woodbrook an environs is a mess, almost all gas stations are a mess. Lots of jackass drivin so b careful peeps. Panic buying in session. 3 gas stations in south sold out. Reports of ppl bein robbed on the bus route

This is what it looks like near movie towne....if you're on the highway, may God be with you. It's slow mving but jackass driving is highly prevalent.

[geodude]

sweet wish i was home for this

[zitanos]

Humes, i not disagreeing with you.. saying it is a Rumor is the technically correct thing for them to say..considering no watch/warning had been issued as yet.

But in reality Trinis only take notice when it have watch/warning in the title (since we always have a Wave passing over us now and then).

To me the note I read, made it seem as if everything will be ok (but in a milder tone...we will experience some rain and take some precautions).

Now, while nothing is wrong with what they said, I still think not enough urgency was placed in it, seeing as most ppl (well us online who know abt it) would see this system affecting Trinidad.

Was it socially responsible of them to do this? I'm sure after that 4pm release, ppl who hearing that we on a warning now, would want to rush and get supplies etc.

My only problem with it is... is 8hrs enough for these ppl (especially those in flood prone areas) to rush home and evacuate their belongings?

Granted, that its up to the person to take interest and safeguard themselves in advance (since we living in a Tropical Island)...The reality of the situation is that the avg Joe in TnT needs to be babied (otherwise come Monday..they would want to know why the ODPM did not warn them sooner)

[DrunkenMaster16]

i so glad i went this morning and fill up the van with diesel, buy a set a groceries etc, BUT i buy callalloo and pig tail and forget the coconut milk and now i panicing!!!

I'll trade yuh a pack of powder coconut milk for a bowl of callalloo and pig tail...

Yuh cookin with plenty pepper right?

[Hook]

All this back and forth because you weren't paying attention?

There are specific criteria for classifying these things and the system must qualify first, so it appears to be reactive, but there's no other way. Making the decision to put the country on Tropical Storm Warning is not an easy one in terms of the development and movement of the system as well as the shut-downs and things that must be put into place for such an event. We wish as much as possible to avoid false alarms, even though it's better safe than sorry.

A Watch/Warning goes alot further than just you getting the afternoon off. Ports of entry must be closed and secured, oil platforms must be evacuated, emergency services must be co-ordinated. Lots of money is lost in terms of productivity, but it is in the interest of preserving life.
It may have appeared to you folks on the ground that it was sudden but you'll never understand the dynamics of it from behind your computer screens. My office was hell today fielding calls, gathering and interpreting data, always on the phone with Miami, doing the atmospheric soundings, running the data models, monitoring the radar issuing the bulletins and sending them to everywhere...it's not easy, no matter how well trained or experienced you are in this field.

This is why we try our very best to curb the unnecessary panic that some of you cause and to stop the rumours, because now, in a serious situation, people think it isn't severe. The person in the cubicle next door doesn't know any more about meteorology than you do and none of you know as much meteorology as myself and my colleagues do. I'd like to think that some of you have a little more sense than that.
Me personallly, part of me wishes it's real bad so some of you could understand what this means, and part of me doesn't want that for my country.

This is very serious business. I expect you to take it seriously.

[Humes]

Hook, you know K. Kerr?

[W2J]

My office was hell today fielding calls, gathering and interpreting data, always on the phone with Miami, doing the atmospheric soundings, running the data models, monitoring the radar issuing the bulletins and sending them to everywhere...it's not easy, no matter how well trained or experienced you are in this field.

now understand why public servants making all the fuss about a raise in salary.

[apple]

Hook, I will not spam this topic again (will only spam ur fb)

the wind in san fernando has a nice chill to it. barely any vehicles on the road. bar nice and full.

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

Thomas on Tomas

Warning#

Date: Friday 29th of October 2010
ISSUED AT:05:52PM

Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for
Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada and its
dependencies.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that Trinidad and
Tobago, Grenada and its dependencies can expect
Tropical Storm conditions within 36 hours.
At 5:pm today, Friday October 29, the centre of
Tropical Storm Tomas was located near 11.1ºN
latitude 57.5ºW longitude or about 300
kilometers east of Tobago.
Tropical Storm Tomas is moving to the
west-northwest at about 28 km/hr. Tomas is
expected to continue on this general track over
the next 24 to 48 hours during which it is
forecast to intensify as environmental conditions
are conducive for strengthening.



Maximum sustained winds are near 65km/hr with
higher gusts. Tropical Storm force winds extend
outwards up to 50 km mainly to the southwest and
southeast quadrants. Minimum central pressure is
998mb.
Tobago, Trinidad, particularly Northern Trinidad,
Grenada and its dependencies will therefore be
mostly exposed to Tropical Storm conditions from
about midnight tonight.
Tomas is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 75 to 100mm or possibly 125 to
150 mm over Tobago, Northern Trinidad, Grenada
and its dependencies. South and Central Trinidad
could experience 25 to 75mm in some locations.
Sea conditions are also anticipated to become
very disturbed and adversely affect marine and
coastline interests.



Citizens and all concerned are advised to closely
follow the directions and advise of their
Disaster Emergency Managers at this time. Adopt
all necessary measures to preserve life and
property.
Repeating Tropical Storm Tomas 5:00pm position:
11.1ºN latitude 57.5ºW longitude or about 300
kilometers east of Tobago.
The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services
will issue another bulletin at 9:00pm later
today. Please refer to the Trinidad and Tobago
Meteorological Services website,
http://www.metoffice.gov.tt" target="_blank, for further details and
stay tuned to your regular broadcast media.









B. Thomas
Meteorologist

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 57.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL WINDWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING
WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

RECON AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE NOT YET VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...VERY MOIST MID-LEVELS...AND LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR TOMAS TO INTENSIFY AT A
FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THESE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

[forsaken1]

i now checkin it on google earth,damn t&t can't handle this,then again time will tell

[FriendlyFire]

There are specific criteria for classifying these things and the system must qualify first, so it appears to be reactive, but there's no other way. Making the decision to put the country on Tropical Storm Warning is not an easy one in terms of the development and movement of the system as well as the shut-downs and things that must be put into place for such an event. We wish as much as possible to avoid false alarms, even though it's better safe than sorry.
.

Hook I fully understand what you are saying and appreciate the work you guys do for all of us. One of the challenges we seem to be facing is that at times first responders wait until you state something definitive before taking action. So much of what you do is forecasting and perhaps what first responders need to be able to do is to take that initial information and use it as forewarning so that they are prepared to respond to changing conditions. This needs to be done not just at the top level of these organizations but at all levels particularly amongst those who are at the operational level.

It's not good enough for first responders to know that a system might be approaching, they also need to know in advance what they are going to do if you guys tell them IT IS. In fact they, more than any one else, should be fast at work putting thing in place and making contingency plans.

Another challenge faced by Trinidad and Tobago is the proximity within which these systems are likely to develop. A look at Tropical Storm Tomas will show that when it formed Storm warnings were issued virtually immediately but unfortunately for Trinidad we were much closer to the center of the system than the other Islands hence a shorter warning period for us and from your description of the process this can't be avoided. The need for us in Trinidad and Tobago to use forecast information as forewarning cannot be understated. Panic can be avoided by informed persons KNOWING what they are going to do IF something develops. If this balance can be achieved we will perhaps see a more controlled response from the public.

[playerskrew]

i now checkin it on google earth,damn t&t can't handle this,then again time will tell

sen we the link na...

[GReddy23]

wintv reporting
well its a tropical storm and ODPM said expect showers from 1200 hours

[SRASC]

[Hook]

didn't I say around midnight? I did, right?

Hook, you know K. Kerr?

Yes.

My office was hell today fielding calls, gathering and interpreting data, always on the phone with Miami, doing the atmospheric soundings, running the data models, monitoring the radar issuing the bulletins and sending them to everywhere...it's not easy, no matter how well trained or experienced you are in this field.

no understand why public servants making all the fuss about a raise in salary.

Ger, some of us work REAL hard to give good results with very little resources for very little pay and only receive ridicule in return. Everybody's a critic.
It's not often we get this much attention, and some may think we only snap into action in extreme situations like these, but this happens several times a year in the rainy season. That's why we resent being lumped into a stereotype of lazy public servants and that 1% is a very difficult pill to swallow.

Some years ago Antigua Met Service had strike action at the onset of a passing tropical cyclone because similarly, the Government low-balled them in wage negotiations. But here, we are an essential service and we cannot hold the country to ransom.

[MISHI]

Might be just me, but it seems to have begun to go more NW than WNW. Present map shows the position slightly NE to the 600z (2am) forcast position...

[redmanjp]

well the test to see how govts past & present have prepared for something like this has finally come- in 24hrs time how many people go be swimming in 5 feet of flood!!

[redmanjp]

calculate when the storm will reach

http://stormcarib.com/tools.htm

[redmanjp]

so far no alert sms from ODPM for the T. Storm warning (got one for tropical wave earlier)- it might come tomorrow- when ah drowning

[redmanjp]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/292343.shtml

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
745 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS TOMAS STRONGER...SPECIAL
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED SOON...

RECENT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM TOMAS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH. A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 8 PM AST AND WILL SUPERSEDE THE
REGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN

[Rutless Tiida]

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* GRENADA
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
..................................................................................................

Yes hurricane warnings may be required later this evening......

[redmanjp]

NHC 8pm update

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/292358.shtml?

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...TOMAS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 57.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* GRENADA
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING .

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING
WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN

[MISHI]

5PM Advisory 1 = 11.1N 57.5W

8PM Advisory 2 = 11.6N 57.6W

There's a higher rate northerly than it is westerly... I'll wait for another advisory... I still think it's starting to go more NW

[Terabyte]

steups...it headin north

It have more lock dan ah forklift

[eekipoo]

see i ent no weatherman and i coulda see this coming...NW

[Hook]

^^^ ah feel your weekend forecast looking like a 90% probability of ban

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

Hook we know yuh under stress and we REAL thankful that you are here on the forums to dispel the myths

eekipoo, seems to be more NW movement to me too, but remember the hurricane hunter aircraft and other measurements show the stronger winds and rain to the south east and south west quadrants of the system. This is unusual, as tropical storms are usually more intense on their northern side, but then again a storm like Tomas forming in this location so late in the year is pretty unusual too.

Waiting on the 9pm bulletin.. but I feel we got away this time

[redmanjp]

anyone know if SBCS still have classes 2mrow?