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Redman wrote:bluesclues wrote:Skanky wrote:I can't believe than in 2014 people still believe that OPEC,oil supply/demand,Saudi,Kuwait,fracking,production,war,(anything other than the people who actually push the buy or sell buttons) have much influence the price of oil.
well that is commodities trading for you. investors invest on the prediction that new investors will come along. in short the stock market is a legal ponzi scheme. if the price starts falling by trade value that means companies have to cut back expenditure because they arent supported by growing investment anymore. imagine you have 80bn invested at $80 a barrell and price falls to $60 u just lost 20bn dollars. and that could happen with a meagre $100,000 sell order in a low liquidity market.
I would like you to justify your claim.
FYI:
Crude trades in contract sizes of 1000 barrels ie the value is the price by 1000. Or 60,000 usd per contract today's prices.
The global daily volume is about 1000,000 contracts per day.
Please explain how you arrive at a single contract sell moving a market that trades 24 hrs per day
Tell us what you perceive to be a 'low liquidity market'.
Smh
PM on falling oil prices: Govt may have to revise budget, withdraw from HSF
Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar says if oil prices continue to slide on the global market the Government may have to revise, for a second time, the national budget. And if the situation does not improve soon, withdrawals from the national Heritage Stabilization Fund (HSF) might be necessary, she added.
Yesterday, the price for Crude WTI (West Texas Intermediate), on which the budget is pegged, fell bellow US$60, according to Bloomberg.com. At present, crude oil is selling at US$57.81, down from a high of US$100 earlier this year. Persad-Bissessar, speaking with reporters at her annual toy distribution drive at the Ato Boldon Stadium, Couva, said Finance Minister Larry Howai sent out circulars last week to ministries ordering all non-essential services be cut.
However, she said, essential services like health and the social services programmes would not be cut since those would be required to support the most vulnerable. Persad-Bissessar said the trimming of excess in ministries would take place in the coming weeks and into the new year. The Prime Minister hastened to add, “Should the oil prices continue to fall it will be required to have a further look at the budgeted figures and do some revisions as may be necessary.”
She assured that the HSF, which was set-up for “rainy days,” would be available to the Government if needed. “The fund is configured [to be triggered] should the oil prices fall below a certain amount. Minister Howai has told me that there is no (need) to trigger off withdrawals from the HSF,” she said.
Persad-Bissessar assured that the fund was “a padding and a support, budgetary support, fiscal support.” The HSF currently stands at US$5,563.3 million.
She said there was no need to cut her annual Christmas toy drive since those functions were not paid for by the Government, but through donations. “So these will continue, all the toy drives will continue,” she said. At the toy drive, which was attended by thousands of eager children from central Trinidad, Persad-Bissessar got a special surprise when 13-year-old heart surgery patient Anuradha Balgobin presented her with a thank-you letter.
The form two student at Sarawati Girls Hindu College hugged the Prime Minister and thanked her for the Life Fund that enabled her to have life-saving open heart surgery this year. “I feel very happy. I knew she would help me. I came to give her a letter. I came this specially to give her the letter to thank her for the Life Fund and getting me the surgery,” the little girl from Mc Bean, Couva said.
Balgobin’s sister Shweta said she brought her sister because it was important for her to say thank you. She said her family would never have been able to raise the US$.5 million needed for the surgery. Persad-Bissessar said she was touched by the girl’s gesture and promised that the Children’s Life Fund would not be cut.
well as someone said. the traders decide the price, and that is decided by how much they are paying in the most recent trade. before you get critical just realize i made an example of how that can occur. a low liquidity market as used in my example for me is any market who's traders seeking to exit faster than demand can grow to keep the price stable.
so basically any time price is falling is due to low liquidity which translates as , slower buying and faster selling, loss of liquidity due to investors pulling buys anticipating a decline etc.so it doesnt matter whether they trading $5 or 1 trillion a day. but will most likely increase again at the lower price as some investors crowd the book to catch cheaper sells after selling at the top. if most buys between 61 and $80 were pulled and placed at 60 leaving a total of $100,000 in buys between 61 and 80, then a $100,000 sell down lowers the value from 80 to 60 for everyone. or is that not how trading works? lol
once trading value starts to lower then so is liquidity by extension.
im not saying such low figures are being used in oil markets. just an example. or u trying to get trading and investment classes for free dey?
bluesclues wrote: i will however make a definitive counter to howai and reinforce my prediction that oil can touch $40 at least temporarily before seeing a decent rebound. again, temporarily. all in all this is a declining market and you need skills to make money in a falling market. on the up side... price of petroleum products will also decline for consumers including gas eventually as demand for that decreases with electric car adoption and solar energy technological improvements. we'll have cheap gas and doubles for $20 for one.
Redman wrote:well as someone said. the traders decide the price, and that is decided by how much they are paying in the most recent trade. before you get critical just realize i made an example of how that can occur. a low liquidity market as used in my example for me is any market who's traders seeking to exit faster than demand can grow to keep the price stable.
so basically any time price is falling is due to low liquidity which translates as , slower buying and faster selling, loss of liquidity due to investors pulling buys anticipating a decline etc.so it doesnt matter whether they trading $5 or 1 trillion a day. but will most likely increase again at the lower price as some investors crowd the book to catch cheaper sells after selling at the top. if most buys between 61 and $80 were pulled and placed at 60 leaving a total of $100,000 in buys between 61 and 80, then a $100,000 sell down lowers the value from 80 to 60 for everyone. or is that not how trading works? lol
So what yuh saying is that for your post to make sense there has to be a series of low probability occurrences happening simultaneously in order to validate your hypothetical scenario.
Like pigs flying etc...once trading value starts to lower then so is liquidity by extension.
But liquidity has nothing to do with moves lower-we have days where prices move lower on heavy volume.
Therefore liquidity created and confirmed the move.
For serious moves volume is a confirmation signal...the lower the volume(or liquidity) the less relevant the move.What you are saying is that a 100 share trade 5 points above market on a stock MSFT is relevant.im not saying such low figures are being used in oil markets. just an example. or u trying to get trading and investment classes for free dey?
Its pointless using an example that requires an impossible settup to bolster your position.
But I guess it impresses somebody.
As to me getting trading/investment classes for free.....yuh overcharging.
Habit7 wrote:ZR safe, doh worry. While he has the strongest disdain for immigrants in Trinidad, the Brits will ensure he gets his ten day over other European nationals
orangefox wrote:Habit7 wrote:ZR safe, doh worry. While he has the strongest disdain for immigrants in Trinidad, the Brits will ensure he gets his ten day over other European nationals
Lol .. TT heading into a recession. It's part and parcel of been in the Oil business.
Everybody will be affected.
Withdrawals from HSF will be needed. It was set up for this purpose.
bluesclues wrote:howai playing in control and have a plan. what he means to say is he didnt expect this and had no plans for this happening during his tenure. he bonx een with he heavy deficit and ppg squandering money while we oil reserves at risk of running low within 10 yrs i believe was the last figure i got.
i feel tt might end up defaulting on world bank loans in the future but it wont be their problem because they wont be in office.
come in, suck the treasury dry, mashup the place and buss out smiling. that was the ppg 'crime plan'
nervewrecker wrote:Blues clues, serious question, how old are you?
bluesclues wrote:thats what allyuh coming up with? the usd leaking through the black market? lol no it is being hoarded to create the illusion of scarcity and thus by law of supply and demand its value should rise. however ithe plan not working because the butterfly effect causing violence in the streets. the answer is to raise wages to $20 per hr and over for this current oil price problem we're facing. trinidad needs new opportunities for export and generating of income from external sources. not just private investors. PEOPLE. i actually know how to fix everything. and also how to get usd into the country in significant amounts. how to generate higher income from export, attract investors, reduce crime and stimulate strong gdp resurgence.
and im sure someone will come and tell me $20 an hr for minimum wage? thats impossible. but i telling u in advance.. youz ah noob. lol. my understanding of financial systems is impeccable.
sMASH wrote:bluesclues wrote:thats what allyuh coming up with? the usd leaking through the black market? lol no it is being hoarded to create the illusion of scarcity and thus by law of supply and demand its value should rise. however ithe plan not working because the butterfly effect causing violence in the streets. the answer is to raise wages to $20 per hr and over for this current oil price problem we're facing. trinidad needs new opportunities for export and generating of income from external sources. not just private investors. PEOPLE. i actually know how to fix everything. and also how to get usd into the country in significant amounts. how to generate higher income from export, attract investors, reduce crime and stimulate strong gdp resurgence.
and im sure someone will come and tell me $20 an hr for minimum wage? thats impossible. but i telling u in advance.. youz ah noob. lol. my understanding of financial systems is impeccable.
Who are those new foreign investors?
Where are those new markets we can sell to?
$20 per hour going to drive up inflation in order to compensate for salaries liability. It also going to increase the demand for USD because there would be increased purchasing for foreign goods. Other countries' business going to benefit from that. Local demand would remain for food and remain the same.
To pit it in today terms: sense you speak none.
RASC wrote:The mere fact that this individual constantly types "i" instead of "I" is enough not to take him seriously.
sMASH wrote:I don't have a problem with capital and common interchanges... Those are your own mental shackles.
I will see the idea and concept of your mind despite imperfection.
But, how does one go about devaluing the dollar?
bluesclues wrote:sMASH wrote:bluesclues wrote:thats what allyuh coming up with? the usd leaking through the black market? lol no it is being hoarded to create the illusion of scarcity and thus by law of supply and demand its value should rise. however ithe plan not working because the butterfly effect causing violence in the streets. the answer is to raise wages to $20 per hr and over for this current oil price problem we're facing. trinidad needs new opportunities for export and generating of income from external sources. not just private investors. PEOPLE. i actually know how to fix everything. and also how to get usd into the country in significant amounts. how to generate higher income from export, attract investors, reduce crime and stimulate strong gdp resurgence.
and im sure someone will come and tell me $20 an hr for minimum wage? thats impossible. but i telling u in advance.. youz ah noob. lol. my understanding of financial systems is impeccable.
Who are those new foreign investors?
Where are those new markets we can sell to?
$20 per hour going to drive up inflation in order to compensate for salaries liability. It also going to increase the demand for USD because there would be increased purchasing for foreign goods. Other countries' business going to benefit from that. Local demand would remain for food and remain the same.
To pit it in today terms: sense you speak none.
i know that is the view. the common view copied and regurgitated by 'economics experts' through the media. but this is a flat out deception. we are seeing inflation anyway and this was the advised route we've always been taking. yet, its taking us into depression. how deep into the spike pit you have to walk before you realize the theory does not pan out? capitalism functions on circulation generating gdp growth. government can keep good statistics by running megaprojects that make businesses rich with the objective of hoarding for higher profit and investment margins without scruples leaving less to be allocated to salaries. but the downtrending effect will cause all the problems we see today. the statistics on the books look good, but the man on the ground feeling the pressure tightening even though those books reporting what experts say they should report figures wise.
the devaluing of the dollar is what causes the price of everything to rise and nothing else. it causes unemployment and a growing number of people dropping out of the job market considering it a waste of time etc. people stop going out to work and try to do as little as possible while there, contributing to loss in productivity in a chain reaction of negative growth. crime rises as the opressed find justification for their actions in what must be corruption if the country records say we doing good yet still the people.. arent. this happens because of the lag in rising of salaries for our country, following in the footsteps of larger economic drivers like the USA. the solution to this i say is to raise the salaries above the bar, to beat the inflation for a lou period of say 3-5 years. the additional funding would have to have come from a large deficit geared towards raising salaries to generate circulation as people splurge and produce.. REAL GDP GROWTH on the books. from government to people, from people to corporations and from corporations back to government. because passing it through the corporations under the promise of 'atrickle down' effect where corporations promise to raise wages if they do well enough isnt working.. because they never doing well enough and always want more. not caring that there isnt enough money for everyone to be a billionaire. but u know if everyone was a millionaire thered be no crime. its a psychology of the masses and human nature thing in that respect.
the idea behind raising salaries above the line of inflation needs to be on a budget of 3-5 years or so with the development of new products and services for export which trinidad can aim to make a niche within a culture of world export. providing more government jobs, well paying ones for even the most low skilled or educated workers. whose psychology towards work would be different because they see it as rewarding and they can afford all the things they may want or need. and their splurging is just what we want. to see real growth and spur on investors. in the 3-5 years the deficit spending used to give the economy a massive jolt in this way will generate higher returns in a shorter space of time. eg if we operate on a 50bn dollar budget that generated 1bn in gdp growth each year, a major deficit budget of say 100bn would theoretically generate 2bn so we could pay off the 50bn in 25yrs. but its much better than that in this case because 50bn can go strictly towards this higher salaries in new government created products and services for export revenues, while the other 50bn runs the country each year. the product will simply be that everyone's quality of life increases during hard times and wears off over the years, balancing out at a new level or standard of living for the people of the country.
rest assured i have the knowledge of industries that can generate billions of US Dollars in profits for this country and achieve all these things like near 0 unemployment level, high export value products and services, economic growth, significantly reduced crime that does not require working police like dogs leading to disconnect with the people. and basically, a well shaped society with happy people that feel valued in their contribution to society. in this situation the average gdp profit margin would naturally increase year by year from $1bn per $50bn investment. to 4 and $5bn. and even higher with the generation of income from all the new employment opportunities in government run export businesses. the clientelle for these are the world of investors and i already know where and how to reach them.
i suppose you can say i have a vision.. or should i start with 'i had a dream...' lol
orangefox wrote:
Very good and interesting points !
Yes we need REAL GDP growth, out of productivity then export. Gov't spending to prop is not working since
as soon as oil prices drop, Gov't cuts spending. And you back to square one.
Raising wages is tricky in TT since you usually get no increase in productivity.
Getting investors through increase wages works in theory but we then go
back to no increase or minimum productivity in Trinidad.
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