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HOW IS T&T'S ECONOMY FEARING?

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Redress10
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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby Redress10 » May 31st, 2021, 8:41 am

elec2020 wrote:^ so your proposal is to change decades of consumption patterns overnight? Also, what about paying back loans? Cause i doubt the government borrowed in TT dollars. Every nation in the world trades with other nations. To conduct this trade u need forex. Nothing is going to change that. Therefore, the government needs to find ways to bolster how much forex tnt generates.


Ammmm no. "Every" nation in the world doesn't trade with each other. Go and do some research. You also don't need "forex" for this trade. Countries such as the UK/US simply relocate companies etc to facilitate this trade. That is why London also have Google, Facebook offices etc.

Your country trades because it doesn't produce anything of significance other than oil/gas. Other countries produce what they consume or they change their consumption practices. No country in the world ever became economically powerful by needing to import all of its needs.

Even Singapore is increasing its food production to solve its importation problems because excessive imports is detrimental to your economy.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby elec2020 » May 31st, 2021, 9:33 am

Countries that do not trade are call closed economies and:

There are no economies which are completely closed. Brazil imports the least amount of goods in the world when measured as a portion of the gross domestic product (GDP) and is the most closed economy in the world.

https://cleartax.in/g/terms/closed-economy

Also, companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook etc can have multiple offices in different countries for different reasons. Like:

1. A different city/area/country is a different pool of resources. If you need people with special talents and you can't find them around your headquarter you find an area which provides these resources and open an office there.

2. Financial gain. Some countries offer financial advantages over other. For example, in The Netherlands, a big company hardly has to pay any taxes at all.

https://investinholland.com/why-invest/ ... C245%2C000.

No country is entirely self-sufficient. Therefore you need forex to conduct trade. Also, as I said before how T&T going to pay back foreign loans it made over the years if it does not have a reliable flow of forex?

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby Redress10 » May 31st, 2021, 10:15 am

You are oversimplifying things. No one is talking about about closed economy and self sufficiency. That would be countries such as North Korea etc. I am not talking about that.

Understand what global trade is. Countries are basically corporations and the more the trade flows outwards, the more money they make. You also need to understand that trade between the UK/USA is a different sort of trade between UK/USA/TT. So you can't just say that countries trade with each other. These countries have historical and ethnic ties that are unique to them and would offer terms between each other that are mutually beneficial. They have no interest in offering those terms to countries such as yours. That is why the relationship between UK/USA is referred as the "special relationship".

This special relationship also includes the setting up of companies such as Facebook etc in cities such as London, Paris, Sweden etc. Has nothing to do with talent etc amd everything to do with making trade between those countries easier. Western Europeans and north americans have a relationship that they don't have with the rest of the world. Don't be blind to this fact. Also remember that ownership of those companies tend to be split amongst american and european interests.

Another thing to remember is that those countries trade in blocks. Think about the EU for instance. When France trades with Spain they are using a common currency which is the euro plus the goods are produced with european labour etc. There is no forex leakage etc. That applies to all trade between the Eu partners. The euro is stronger than the USD meaning that europeans technically can afford american made goods. TT on the under hand is weaker than the USD that makes trade with the USA expensive for us.

The reality is that TT has very little apart from oil and gas to offer the developed world. There is nothing being produced here that can't be produced in the USA for instance. Which is why the key to our economic survival is to change consumption patters because our current patterns are unsustainable. What you all are asking for is more forex simply to consume more but the goods that you want to consume are produced elsewhere. How does that make economic sense?

Does TT need to import over multiple brands of cereal worth billions of dollars each year. That is unsustainable. Invest in your own manufacturing and decrease imports. Why is that so hard to understand.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby MaxPower » May 31st, 2021, 10:21 am

gastly369 wrote:As we open trini going jackass de scene and we would be back to square one in no time... 100% guarantee it


X3000

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby elec2020 » May 31st, 2021, 10:25 am

your points are noted. In particular our consumption patterns are unsustainable. Regardless, TT is not a super power. We are a low developing country. More can be done to reduce the need for forex like bolstering agriculture, re-establishing manufacturing segments (for example I heard T&T used to manufacture cars and tvs in the past) and maybe consider increasing taxes on forex purchases (however, to balance that off you need to improve supervision of retailers). Still, you need forex to grow and develop as well as to pay foreign debts so you still need to have a strong generator of forex. There is no way to get around that

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby zoom rader » May 31st, 2021, 10:32 am

elec2020 wrote:your points are noted. In particular our consumption patterns are unsustainable. Regardless, TT is not a super power. We are a low developing country. More can be done to reduce the need for forex like bolstering agriculture, re-establishing manufacturing segments (for example I heard T&T used to manufacture cars and tvs in the past) and maybe consider increasing taxes on forex purchases (however, to balance that off you need to improve supervision of retailers). Still, you need forex to grow and develop as well as to pay foreign debts so you still need to have a strong generator of forex. There is no way to get around that
Dummy we are not a developing country. Trinidad was taken off that list for sometime now

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby Redress10 » May 31st, 2021, 10:54 am

elec2020 wrote:your points are noted. In particular our consumption patterns are unsustainable. Regardless, TT is not a super power. We are a low developing country. More can be done to reduce the need for forex like bolstering agriculture, re-establishing manufacturing segments (for example I heard T&T used to manufacture cars and tvs in the past) and maybe consider increasing taxes on forex purchases (however, to balance that off you need to improve supervision of retailers). Still, you need forex to grow and develop as well as to pay foreign debts so you still need to have a strong generator of forex. There is no way to get around that


If we are a "low developing" country then don't you think we should be consuming low developing type of products? Why all the need for fancy cereals and fancy foods on the shelves that are "imported"? Does the average trini realise that every foreign good consumed literally pays for the livelihoods of workers in the countries where the goods are imported from? The thing about food imports is that it either spoils and is discarded or is consumed and ends up in the sewer system. You are literally flushing your forex down the drain.

Our forex should be spent on things such as manufacturing equipment and agricultural inputs that allow us to improve our production capabilites. Retailers shouldn't be allowed to import any and everything they want just to compete in the market. Why do we need 50 brands of cereal when the majority of them are just refined sugars. Then we also need to find forex to import the medication to treat the childhood diabetes that it causes. We really are an insane set of people.

We never used to "manufacture" cars but I believe we used to assemble. Again, is a car purchase necessary? Why is it that western european and asian countries can provide reliable, safe and enjoyable public transportation saving their citizens and the country billions in vehicle associated costs and we are still purchasing cars en masse. Imagine how much forex could be saved if car purchases in TT were decreased by 1/3 and the money reinvested in having a world class public transport system.

We definitely need to supervise retailers if we begin capping foreign purchases etc. Remember these business people simply import and add mark up in order to make money in TT. There's no innovation taking place. Imagine if movie towne had its own brand of popcorn/candy/soft drink etc that was made from local inputs and sold there for instance. Instead everything there from the movie to the food is imported. They only provide seating and movie.

I am not saying forex isn't needed. All I am saying is you need to start increasing local production/consumption as much possible. Our forex is still needed to develop and pay our loans as you say. But do we really need to use forex buying lettuce and tomatoes though. I have a serious problem seeing forex being used in that way.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby elec2020 » May 31st, 2021, 11:02 am

I agree with your points inno. What you raised must be attended too soon as we will be heading into trouble. Things cannot stay the same. But alas, as is evident, we just hoping on oil and gas to bail us out again.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby elec2020 » May 31st, 2021, 11:05 am

zoom rader wrote:
elec2020 wrote:your points are noted. In particular our consumption patterns are unsustainable. Regardless, TT is not a super power. We are a low developing country. More can be done to reduce the need for forex like bolstering agriculture, re-establishing manufacturing segments (for example I heard T&T used to manufacture cars and tvs in the past) and maybe consider increasing taxes on forex purchases (however, to balance that off you need to improve supervision of retailers). Still, you need forex to grow and develop as well as to pay foreign debts so you still need to have a strong generator of forex. There is no way to get around that
Dummy we are not a developing country. Trinidad was taken off that list for sometime now


In the April 2021 WEO (by the IMF) Trinidad and Tobago falls into the Emerging Market and Developing Country List.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO ... -economies

Also, according to the WTO:
Trinidad and Tobago is a high income developing country with a GDP per capita of over US$15,500.

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tp ... _sum_e.pdf

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby zoom rader » May 31st, 2021, 11:07 am

Redress10 wrote:
elec2020 wrote:your points are noted. In particular our consumption patterns are unsustainable. Regardless, TT is not a super power. We are a low developing country. More can be done to reduce the need for forex like bolstering agriculture, re-establishing manufacturing segments (for example I heard T&T used to manufacture cars and tvs in the past) and maybe consider increasing taxes on forex purchases (however, to balance that off you need to improve supervision of retailers). Still, you need forex to grow and develop as well as to pay foreign debts so you still need to have a strong generator of forex. There is no way to get around that


If we are a "low developing" country then don't you think we should be consuming low developing type of products? Why all the need for fancy cereals and fancy foods on the shelves that are "imported"? Does the average trini realise that every foreign good consumed literally pays for the livelihoods of workers in the countries where the goods are imported from? The thing about food imports is that it either spoils and is discarded or is consumed and ends up in the sewer system. You are literally flushing your forex down the drain.

Our forex should be spent on things such as manufacturing equipment and agricultural inputs that allow us to improve our production capabilites. Retailers shouldn't be allowed to import any and everything they want just to compete in the market. Why do we need 50 brands of cereal when the majority of them are just refined sugars. Then we also need to find forex to import the medication to treat the childhood diabetes that it causes. We really are an insane set of people.

We never used to "manufacture" cars but I believe we used to assemble. Again, is a car purchase necessary? Why is it that western european and asian countries can provide reliable, safe and enjoyable public transportation saving their citizens and the country billions in vehicle associated costs and we are still purchasing cars en masse. Imagine how much forex could be saved if car purchases in TT were decreased by 1/3 and the money reinvested in having a world class public transport system.

We definitely need to supervise retailers if we begin capping foreign purchases etc. Remember these business people simply import and add mark up in order to make money in TT. There's no innovation taking place. Imagine if movie towne had its own brand of popcorn/candy/soft drink etc that was made from local inputs and sold there for instance. Instead everything there from the movie to the food is imported. They only provide seating and movie.

I am not saying forex isn't needed. All I am saying is you need to start increasing local production/consumption as much possible. Our forex is still needed to develop and pay our loans as you say. But do we really need to use forex buying lettuce and tomatoes though. I have a serious problem seeing forex being used in that way.
We have stupid laws that forbid anyone from manufacturing vehicles .

You can't even build a boat or car trailer in Trinidad. You will not get it licensed.

Boatmen have to build them in Grenada and then ship to Trinidad. How dumb is that law.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby zoom rader » May 31st, 2021, 11:09 am

elec2020 wrote:
zoom rader wrote:
elec2020 wrote:your points are noted. In particular our consumption patterns are unsustainable. Regardless, TT is not a super power. We are a low developing country. More can be done to reduce the need for forex like bolstering agriculture, re-establishing manufacturing segments (for example I heard T&T used to manufacture cars and tvs in the past) and maybe consider increasing taxes on forex purchases (however, to balance that off you need to improve supervision of retailers). Still, you need forex to grow and develop as well as to pay foreign debts so you still need to have a strong generator of forex. There is no way to get around that
Dummy we are not a developing country. Trinidad was taken off that list for sometime now


In the April 2021 WEO (by the IMF) Trinidad and Tobago falls into the Emerging Market and Developing Country List.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO ... -economies

Also, according to the WTO:
Trinidad and Tobago is a high income developing country with a GDP per capita of over US$15,500.

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tp ... _sum_e.pdf
Not according to the USA, they removed Trinidad from that list. It was in the news sometime ago I can't remember when.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby Redress10 » May 31st, 2021, 11:17 am

elec2020 wrote:I agree with your points inno. What you raised must be attended too soon as we will be heading into trouble. Things cannot stay the same. But alas, as is evident, we just hoping on oil and gas to bail us out again.


Because the country was set up to fail. You sell them oil and gas for $10 they turn around and sell you goods for $15 with a $5 loan plus interests. That is all it comes down to. Trinis think they winning by exporting oil/gas not realising the money being lost via imports so it comes like ya not exporting anything because ya giving back the money just as quickly as it come in.

That is why China have the USA and the rest of the world in a vice grip. They focus on exporting as much as they can whilst importing as little as they can. The excess forex they generating they using as loans to countries and investments in other countries. That makes even more forex. That is their diversification strategy along with belt and road initiative.

Meanwhile, we buying romaine lettuce.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby elec2020 » May 31st, 2021, 11:54 am

zoom rader wrote:
elec2020 wrote:
zoom rader wrote:
elec2020 wrote:your points are noted. In particular our consumption patterns are unsustainable. Regardless, TT is not a super power. We are a low developing country. More can be done to reduce the need for forex like bolstering agriculture, re-establishing manufacturing segments (for example I heard T&T used to manufacture cars and tvs in the past) and maybe consider increasing taxes on forex purchases (however, to balance that off you need to improve supervision of retailers). Still, you need forex to grow and develop as well as to pay foreign debts so you still need to have a strong generator of forex. There is no way to get around that
Dummy we are not a developing country. Trinidad was taken off that list for sometime now


In the April 2021 WEO (by the IMF) Trinidad and Tobago falls into the Emerging Market and Developing Country List.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO ... -economies

Also, according to the WTO:
Trinidad and Tobago is a high income developing country with a GDP per capita of over US$15,500.

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tp ... _sum_e.pdf
Not according to the USA, they removed Trinidad from that list. It was in the news sometime ago I can't remember when.


oh ok i wasn't aware of that. Thanks for that info. Along with that comment on car manufacturing. Those tidbits of info were nice to know

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby elec2020 » May 31st, 2021, 11:58 am

Redress10 wrote:
elec2020 wrote:I agree with your points inno. What you raised must be attended too soon as we will be heading into trouble. Things cannot stay the same. But alas, as is evident, we just hoping on oil and gas to bail us out again.


Because the country was set up to fail. You sell them oil and gas for $10 they turn around and sell you goods for $15 with a $5 loan plus interests. That is all it comes down to. Trinis think they winning by exporting oil/gas not realising the money being lost via imports so it comes like ya not exporting anything because ya giving back the money just as quickly as it come in.

That is why China have the USA and the rest of the world in a vice grip. They focus on exporting as much as they can whilst importing as little as they can. The excess forex they generating they using as loans to countries and investments in other countries. That makes even more forex. That is their diversification strategy along with belt and road initiative.

Meanwhile, we buying romaine lettuce.


lol at the last point made. You correct. US and China realised that the surest way to be a super power is to dominate exports. What do we export apart from oil and gas? Some manufactured products like Matouks? Sigh. T&T's issue is that we never were in a bind that could not be solved by oil and gas. But eventually this will happen. The world is moving away from fossil fuels. So eventually we will be in a pickle. By then debt to gdp might be close to 140% (i think its just over 90 per cent now). When will we get policymakers who can tackle these things before it becomes to late

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby Redress10 » May 31st, 2021, 12:07 pm

Let's also not forget that we never produce oil and gas. That was the american/british companies. Who knows what the true figures of our oil and gas revenues really were. Remember, we never owned that industry here we simply facilitated it. We simply got what they think they could fool us with. We've been getting outsmarted for decades by those powers.

Imagine if we used our forex as loans to other caribbean nations and in return we owned things such as resorts etc. Right there we diversify into tourism without even needing to build a resort in Tobago. Or even acquiring land on Guyana for agriculture.

Our policymakers can't solve it because their goal in life has always been to achieve the position and not what change the position can effect.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby widdyphuck » May 31st, 2021, 12:31 pm

Reopen the economy in 2022 is what they talking about.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby Dohplaydat » May 31st, 2021, 2:34 pm

wtf wrote:Reopen the economy in 2022 is what they talking about.


2021 is more of waste than 2020.

We honestly can't return to any normalcy until mid 2022

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby redmanjp » May 31st, 2021, 3:59 pm

Dohplaydat wrote:
wtf wrote:Reopen the economy in 2022 is what they talking about.


2021 is more of waste than 2020.

We honestly can't return to any normalcy until mid 2022


All depends on how much vaccine Biden and dem send for us in the next 4 months and also if we get it launching a war time effort involving all private sector and even army medics getting shots into arms. No queue jumping as well.

The US has shown we doh necessarily need full herd immunity to open back but just reduce hospitalizations and deaths by prioritizing high risk groups.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby Dohplaydat » May 31st, 2021, 4:52 pm

redmanjp wrote:
Dohplaydat wrote:
wtf wrote:Reopen the economy in 2022 is what they talking about.


2021 is more of waste than 2020.

We honestly can't return to any normalcy until mid 2022


All depends on how much vaccine Biden and dem send for us in the next 4 months and also if we get it launching a war time effort involving all private sector and even army medics getting shots into arms. No queue jumping as well.

The US has shown we doh necessarily need full herd immunity to open back but just reduce hospitalizations and deaths by prioritizing high risk groups.


They are also using mRNA vaccines which are proving to be much better as it reduces the spreading of the virus.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby aaron17 » May 31st, 2021, 7:44 pm

I will check this ched back in the beginning of 2022 we.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby Mmoney607 » June 6th, 2021, 11:01 pm

How is this "vaccinate and operate" going to work? Is the govt going to allow businesses in certain sectors to reopen if a certain percentage of the employees are vaccinated? Would businesses be given a certificate stating that the met the vaccination requirements to be reopened?

Or would it be the usual trend of a big political gimmick, such as what happened in the divali Nagar today, and then the entire manufacturing sector can reopen?

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby j.o.e » June 7th, 2021, 12:17 pm

Mmoney607 wrote:How is this "vaccinate and operate" going to work? Is the govt going to allow businesses in certain sectors to reopen if a certain percentage of the employees are vaccinated? Would businesses be given a certificate stating that the met the vaccination requirements to be reopened?

Or would it be the usual trend of a big political gimmick, such as what happened in the divali Nagar today, and then the entire manufacturing sector can reopen?


It’s not specifically about allowing certain businesses to open once vaccinated. It’s about getting more people vaccinated overall with the added incentive that the businesses in question will have a chance to minimize any spread among their workers when we do slowly open up. Makes no sense to open back and businesses shutting down constantly because of outbreaks among staff.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby Redman » June 7th, 2021, 12:20 pm

agreed- more people vaccinated means in theory less stress on the Medical System.

Less hospitalizations per positive case generally equates less deaths.

So more people can move around as before as the impact of getting the virus becomes more manageable.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby Mmoney607 » June 7th, 2021, 12:21 pm

j.o.e wrote:
Mmoney607 wrote:How is this "vaccinate and operate" going to work? Is the govt going to allow businesses in certain sectors to reopen if a certain percentage of the employees are vaccinated? Would businesses be given a certificate stating that the met the vaccination requirements to be reopened?

Or would it be the usual trend of a big political gimmick, such as what happened in the divali Nagar today, and then the entire manufacturing sector can reopen?


It’s not specifically about allowing certain businesses to open once vaccinated. It’s about getting more people vaccinated overall with the added incentive that the businesses in question will have a chance to minimize any spread among their workers when we do slowly open up. Makes no sense to open back and businesses shutting down constantly because of outbreaks among staff.


So it's an overall percentage of the population we need vaccinated for things to open back? If so then we looking at November for a reopening?

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby j.o.e » June 7th, 2021, 12:24 pm

Mmoney607 wrote:
j.o.e wrote:
Mmoney607 wrote:How is this "vaccinate and operate" going to work? Is the govt going to allow businesses in certain sectors to reopen if a certain percentage of the employees are vaccinated? Would businesses be given a certificate stating that the met the vaccination requirements to be reopened?

Or would it be the usual trend of a big political gimmick, such as what happened in the divali Nagar today, and then the entire manufacturing sector can reopen?


It’s not specifically about allowing certain businesses to open once vaccinated. It’s about getting more people vaccinated overall with the added incentive that the businesses in question will have a chance to minimize any spread among their workers when we do slowly open up. Makes no sense to open back and businesses shutting down constantly because of outbreaks among staff.


So it's an overall percentage of the population we need vaccinated for things to open back? If so then we looking at November for a reopening?


It’s a combination of firstly less cases for staggered reopening. For example …. Restaurants with no dine in, relaxed curfews etc and while this is happening widespread vaccination will allow more things to open with continued mask wearing and sanitation etc
So it’s like a rolling back rather then a sudden opening.

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Re: Govt begins talks to reopen the economy

Postby timelapse » June 7th, 2021, 12:40 pm

You know what's sad.After this pandemic, we not going to learn a damn thing.I speaking about the world in general.Is back to regular up in your face social interactions, like the carnival bunch

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Economists: All is not well with T&T’s economy

Postby SuperiorMan » July 28th, 2022, 11:41 am

https://guardian.co.tt/business/economi ... 3026fbed86

While Standard and Poor’s may have improved T&T’s rating to stable from negative, leading economists are warning this does not mean all is well with the economy. Former Finance Minister Selby Wilson says the report speaks volumes about the country’s inability to diversify the economy from oil and gas.

“We must not pat ourselves for this improved performance which is driven by changes in international environment and not by actions taken by the Government in managing the economy. The report makes it quite clear that oil prices compensates more than adequately despite the productions declines in oil and gas. This, in my view, is a red flag that policymakers must take serious note of and double the efforts to have both sides of the revenue equation working in a positive direction,” Wilson told the Business Guardian.

On July 21, S&P revised the outlook on T&T to stable from negative and affirmed its ratings, including the ‘BBB-’ long-term sovereign credit rating. Finance Minister Colm Imbert had crowed that the rating “is a testimony to our country’s ability to face the COVID-19 crisis in a way that protected the population and the economy, and to exceed expectations in terms of growth and budget restraint, leading to a decline in the public debt trajectory.”

He also boasted that the new dynamics of T&T’s credit rating will translate into upgrades as the country stay the course of “budget discipline and growth reinvigoration.”

But Wilson advised the positive outlook must not result in inefficient spending as this does not provide for sustainable development, both socially and economically.

“The good news must stir policymakers to utilise this saving position to build sustainable and diversified economic growth. In this way, we would be better positioned to control the country’s growth and prosperity trajectory for the benefit of all,” Wilson emphasised.

Economist Dr Vanus James echoed similar sentiments, saying S&P has sounded a somewhat “ominous warning” to the Government and the country about “persistent delays in making reforms,” citing as examples The National Statistical Institute and the Revenue Authority, both of which have been under discussion for many years.

According to the report, S&P also predicts GDP per capita of US$19,337 in 2022 and GDP per capita in excess of US$20,000 within a year.

According to James, given that the country was at about US$19,129 in 2019, and since “no fundamental structural reforms are in sight,” then if achieved this would only be reasonable annual GDP per capita growth of about 4.8 per cent stimulated by buoyant energy prices. He emphasised more could be achieved with targeted and simultaneous efforts to diversify the economy, upgrade its institutions, and invest adequately in the national capacity to innovate.

“In that context, S&P warns that its ratings could be lowered in the medium-term if actual performance falls short of its predictions and the associated “pace of fiscal consolidation is materially slower than expected.”

Important, James posits the ratings could be lowered if the Government’s economic policies contribute to a weakening of the long-term sustainability of public finances, limit the prospects for balanced GDP growth, or materially worsen the country’s external position. According to the economist, it would not be lost on the “discerning reader” that the basis of the improved rating was almost entirely projected higher prices for oil, gas, and petrochemicals caused mainly by Putin’s war in Ukraine.

He said these higher prices are expected to last at least the next year or so, and are expected to cause an economic recovery in T&T this year and in the medium term.

In particular, James noted S&P’s expectation is that higher prices would cause growth in the value of energy-based exports and the GDP, and related improvements in the current account of the balance of payments. These realisations, he said, would enable the Government to collect higher revenues and achieve a strongly positive primary budget balance, clear some of its liabilities, add some savings to the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund, and consolidate the country’s fiscal position.

“The debt-to-GDP ratio would fall predictably, just as the Minister of Finance has already boasted in some of his recent public statements claiming both good fortune and prudent economic management,” James said.

He explained the improvement in outlook and credit rating are set against a background of a long period of low energy prices and persistent economic contraction, exacerbated by COVID-19. These had observed consequences of falling Government revenues, rising budget deficits and growing indebtedness.

“One thing should be said here for the Minister of Finance. He stoutly resisted calls (by ‘uninformed commentators’) to go to the IMF and relied instead on his own home-grown solutions to these problems.

“Now, the rising energy prices and the easier borrowing ratings would only strengthen his resolve on that matter, justifiably so,” James said.

Regarding other aspects of S&P’s rating, he said it failed to add concerns about the longer-standing delays in meeting commitments to ensure diversification of the national economy or even autonomy and the end of perpetual economic underperformance in Tobago.

James said the rating agency also misinterpreted “a stable transfer of power through elections as a stable democracy.”

Noting that S&P however, could be “forgiven” for these shortcomings James explained such matters are for the national community to care about.

“In particular, it is for the national community to care that failure to address commitments to structural economic reforms is a fundamental underpinning of the periodic weakening of the long-term sustainability of public finances. It is also for the national community to care that every round of energy price increases provides powerful incentives to ignore the need to undertake the key economic reforms needed,” James said.

He added it is for the national community to also care that a necessary element of a stable democracy that supports successful economic reforms is political and institutional reform that empowers the willing citizen to petition the legislature and participate routinely in the policymaking process.

Serious issues facing T&T

Dr Ronald Ramkissoon, former senior economist at Republic Bank is also advising that the report be should not be misused to make it appear T&T is “so much better” than it actually is, and, at the same time, it should not be used to make it appear the country has the worst economy, he said.

“We need some balance first to recognise many countries are doing far worse. To get a report which turns negative into stable is something positive. It is positive we are benefiting from high energy prices and we as a country should be grateful we are in a place where we still have with us certain strengths,” Ramkissoon explained.

He said T&T has very serious economic and social issues which must be addressed and these discussions must entail the people.

“We need to have the population get to the truth of the matter; the underlying cases of why we are where we are if we are going to ask the population to make the sacrifices that are going to be necessary,” Ramkissoon said. Additionally, he said much more can be achieved in the non-energy sector which has been neglected for far too long.

“We now know the importance of agriculture and the agroprocessing sector; that is sad. We have not done very much with our creative sectors. We have not done enough with pan and calypso and with the entertainment sector that we could export. We have not done enough with festival tourism. We have not done enough with our marine environment and those are things we should have been addressing all the time. It is now becoming even more urgent and it is a danger to encourage the population to believe the price of oil and gas will remain where they are at present,” Ramkissoon added.

Further, economist Dr Vaalmikki Arjoon added the rating is not an indication of T&T’s overall economic realities rather he notes, it is an indication of its debt repayment capabilities.

“It is in no way reflects that the cost of living and doing business are the highest ever; with many households becoming more vulnerable each day given that food prices increased by 14 per cent over the last two years.

“There is still high uncertainty and reduced confidence in the economy. We will continue to experience capital flight, where several businesses and individuals invest their funds in economies deemed less risky,” Arjoon explained.

Additionally, he said many are investing in properties and setting up businesses in the wider Caribbean and in the US.

Naturally, this will further exacerbate T&T’s foreign exchange woes. And unless business conditions become more favourable, foreign investors will be further dejected from setting up operations in T&T which further limits much needed foreign direct investment, Arjoon warned.

User avatar
Rovin
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Re: Economists: All is not well with T&T’s economy

Postby Rovin » July 28th, 2022, 12:06 pm

u dont even have read past d headline to know this

everybody in business might feel shame to say sales have badly dropped since d recent fuel rise

ppl have to dig deeper to buy d same everything they did b4 & they jest dont have extra $ to spend on much else after buying food & paying bills

it hard out here but many wont admit it cause of pride or simply dont want others to know they seeing hard times ...

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De Dragon
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Re: Economists: All is not well with T&T’s economy

Postby De Dragon » July 28th, 2022, 12:09 pm

Rovin wrote:u dont even have read past d headline to know this

everybody in business might feel shame to say sales have badly dropped since d recent fuel rise

ppl have to dig deeper to buy d same everything they did b4 & they jest dont have extra $ to spend on much else after buying food & paying bills

it hard out here but many wont admit it cause of pride or simply dont want others to know they seeing hard times ...

This is for the dunce LFD RFD PNM who feel Impsy and JUHN Scarfy is God, and believe every word that comes out of their lying traps. Watch and see how Impsy sure to respond with he normal dismissive arrogance

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Les Bain
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Re: Economists: All is not well with T&T’s economy

Postby Les Bain » July 28th, 2022, 12:40 pm

Didn't a mod post a thing showing the international gas prices went down and government draft something to keep prices where they currently are?

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