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The "gift of the NIF" Bond offering

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PariaMan
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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby PariaMan » July 28th, 2018, 4:10 pm

I was asked to invest in Clico ,it was clear to see that it was not above aboard, I did not invest

Even so people still got back their money back eventually

I have been doing a lot of research in this nobody is comparing it to clico except you

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Re: The

Postby RedVEVO » July 28th, 2018, 4:20 pm

PariaMan wrote:
sMASH wrote:"refinancing" does that mean guaranteed by GORTT or central bank?
no.
it means that they will issue more bonds to get more money to repay the first bonds. so if u substitute 'bond' with 'loan' it means they would take another 'loan' to repay the first 'loan'

clico was reallll bess, until it wasnt.
Well your opinion is that it is not for you

That's ok , do not invest

Plenty people feel different and in my opinion it will be oversubscribed and people will make a lot of money

This cannot be compared with clico and HCU totally different scenario

I remember workers from FCB not buying shares because the union say not to buy

They lost out big time

People opposing for political reasons

They should not allow that to prevent them from making a good investment


Agree .. And good job :!: Paria

It will be oversubscribed :D

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby sMASH » July 28th, 2018, 4:21 pm

i not opposing for political reasons, i just see the interest rate being capped, and in exchange for that cap, it should at least be guaranteed that it be repaid. but that is a definite no as it is offered via a shell company.

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby RedVEVO » July 28th, 2018, 4:24 pm

sMASH wrote:i not opposing for political reasons, i just see the interest rate being capped, and in exchange for that cap, it should at least be guaranteed that it be repaid. but that is a definite no as it is offered via a shell company.


So do NOT invest in the Bonds :wink:

Buy Amazon and Facebook :D

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby sMASH » July 28th, 2018, 4:31 pm

not in these bonds. the only real money to make would be the initial trade of the bonds just after issue. after that is just inflation compensation.. provided u go the long term.

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby PariaMan » July 28th, 2018, 4:32 pm

Pallos think logically a country with governments (2 different parties ) that made sure that Clico and HCU people got back there money will allow a bond that they issuing to default?

That will immediately kill the credit rating of the country and in the long run will cost the country plenty more than the 4 billion

It will not happen

I too do not like the fixed dividend but as CIF has shown that even though the dividend is variable the value can depreciate

So I think this was a good model for people who have their money depreciating in the bank with negligible interest
Last edited by PariaMan on July 28th, 2018, 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby neilsingh100 » July 28th, 2018, 4:33 pm

No investment is without risk. Most high net worth individuals and institutions with extra cash are investing so it will be oversubscribed.

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby The_Honourable » July 28th, 2018, 4:54 pm

Marla Dukharan is joined by Banker Nigel Romano and Investment Manager Brent Salvary for a deeper conversation on Trinidad and Tobago’s National Investment Fund (NIF).


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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby Redman » July 28th, 2018, 5:50 pm

So facts is facts.
TTSE and CBTT data

The Stock market all time high is just over 2000 we are 300 ish points off the high today....15%

Interest rates here and everywhere are low single digits- cant go lower

Our money supply is at its highest -a couple % points off the high.

GORTT is debt loaded and has just sold a Govt debt into a SPV that is capitalized by Equity-primarily RBL- who is out of growing space in its home country-the growth came from abroad.

So NIF is
a)a fixed income instrument at the bottom of a GLOBAL multi decade interest rate cycle,
b)'secured' by equity assets at the peak of a multi year market cycle,
c)in an economy that is going through its own structural adjustments while at the all time peak in its money supply.

A is a big problem.
B) Is a likely problem
c) is tied to GORTT political policy.


What is GORTTs track record on its predictions,projections and its actual performance of doing what it says???

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby neilsingh100 » July 28th, 2018, 6:22 pm

Redman wrote:GORTT is debt loaded and has just sold a Govt debt into a SPV that is capitalized by Equity-primarily RBL- who is out of growing space in its home country-the growth came from abroad.

Do you know RBL is the largest bank in Guyana? Guyana GDP will most likely triple by the end of 2030. By your logic we should sell all equities and bonds. What should UTC, NIB, life insurance companies, credit unions and pensions funds invest in?

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby PariaMan » July 28th, 2018, 6:28 pm

Actually I listened to the YouTube video and the fact was actually that the RBL and OCM are at a low right now and will likely improve

Secondly there is a risk of interests going up which would have the effect of devaluing the bond on the open market

However this will only be a risk if the owner wants to cash out before maturity

They were both in agreement that it is a good investment overall
Last edited by PariaMan on July 28th, 2018, 6:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby sMASH » July 28th, 2018, 6:30 pm

one last posit @pariaman:

why not outright guarantee it via GORTT or central bank? i not saying not to invest, just running through scenarios in my head. this is the last one that needs to be settled. i am quite satisfied by all ur previous assessments

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby RedVEVO » July 28th, 2018, 6:33 pm

neilsingh100 wrote:
Redman wrote:GORTT is debt loaded and has just sold a Govt debt into a SPV that is capitalized by Equity-primarily RBL- who is out of growing space in its home country-the growth came from abroad.

Do you know RBL is the largest bank in Guyana? Guyana GDP will most likely triple by the end of 2030. By your logic we should sell all equities and bonds. What should UTC, NIB, life insurance companies, credit unions and pensions funds invest in?


Redman does not understand investments. No disrespect meant Tuner dude :)

There are a lot of people ( that I know personally ) that invested heavily in HCU and CLICO.

They did VERY WELL $$$$$ wise . It was a great investment for these people .

Real investors . The ones that understand risk assessment .

You need to know when to cash in :D ..

And when to cash out .

And not be greedy :oops:


NIF is a Bond .

You need to monitor interest rates .

Interest rates go up , yield go down .
And vice versa.

And not be greedy :D
Last edited by RedVEVO on July 28th, 2018, 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby PariaMan » July 28th, 2018, 6:34 pm

sMASH wrote:one last posture @pariaman:

why not outright guarantee it via GORTT or central bank? i not saying not to invest, just running through scenarios in my head. this is the last one that needs to be settled. i am quite satisfied by all ur previous assessments
Well I listened to the video and the 2 experts were of the opinion that because of the strengths of the companies and their history of paying dividends and the fact that the performance of these companies are likely to improve the risk of default is minimal

Also because it is a TT dollar investment and does not depend on foreign currency it is actually of lower risk

Finally the companies are stable companies and their shares have value way in excess of the value of the bonds

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby RedVEVO » July 28th, 2018, 6:42 pm

sMASH wrote:one last posit @pariaman:

why not outright guarantee it via GORTT or central bank? i not saying not to invest, just running through scenarios in my head. this is the last one that needs to be settled. i am quite satisfied by all ur previous assessments


Because it's backed by assets that go up and down .

How are you going to "guarantee" that Tuner dude ?

You seem to be very conservative in investments :?
Last edited by RedVEVO on July 28th, 2018, 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby PariaMan » July 28th, 2018, 6:42 pm

RedVEVO wrote:
neilsingh100 wrote:
Redman wrote:GORTT is debt loaded and has just sold a Govt debt into a SPV that is capitalized by Equity-primarily RBL- who is out of growing space in its home country-the growth came from abroad.

Do you know RBL is the largest bank in Guyana? Guyana GDP will most likely triple by the end of 2030. By your logic we should sell all equities and bonds. What should UTC, NIB, life insurance companies, credit unions and pensions funds invest in?


Redman does not understand investments. No disrespect meant Tuner dude :)

There are a lot of people ( that I know personally ) that invested heavily in HCU and CLICO.

They did VERY WELL $$$$$ wise . It was a great investment for these people .

Real investors . The ones that understand risk assessment .

You need to know when to cash in :D ..

And when to cash out .

And not be greedy :oops:


NIF is a Bond .

You need to monitor interest rates .

Interest rates go up , yield go down .
And vice versa.

And not be greedy :D
I like what you saying Revo analyse your risk ,enter and have an exit strategy

Long before Clico and HCU crashed people in the know knew what was happening and got out

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby sMASH » July 28th, 2018, 6:47 pm

[/talk]

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Re: The

Postby RedVEVO » July 28th, 2018, 6:52 pm

PariaMan wrote:
RedVEVO wrote:
neilsingh100 wrote:
Redman wrote:GORTT is debt loaded and has just sold a Govt debt into a SPV that is capitalized by Equity-primarily RBL- who is out of growing space in its home country-the growth came from abroad.

Do you know RBL is the largest bank in Guyana? Guyana GDP will most likely triple by the end of 2030. By your logic we should sell all equities and bonds. What should UTC, NIB, life insurance companies, credit unions and pensions funds invest in?


Redman does not understand investments. No disrespect meant Tuner dude :)

There are a lot of people ( that I know personally ) that invested heavily in HCU and CLICO.

They did VERY WELL $$$$$ wise . It was a great investment for these people .

Real investors . The ones that understand risk assessment .

You need to know when to cash in :D ..

And when to cash out .

And not be greedy :oops:


NIF is a Bond .

You need to monitor interest rates .

Interest rates go up , yield go down .
And vice versa.

And not be greedy :D
I like what you saying Revo analyse your risk ,enter and have an exit strategy

Long before Clico and HCU crashed people in the know knew what was happening and got out


It's RedVEVO.

Well as least you got 1/2 the message .
All investments are conservative, moderate , or aggressive .

CLICO was giving 12% or 15% on their EPA.

You have to be a DA to think it was going to last forever .

You monitor your investments.

But we talking NIF .. Bonds

If interest rate go up , then that means other options exist on the market .
So you assess risk and move out from one to another investment .

If interest rate go down. Well you just sit and drink Milo - 5, 12 or 20 years.







** DA = Dumb Ass
** Interest rate low now and will go up - but when and how much ? :|

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby PariaMan » July 28th, 2018, 6:56 pm

Yep on the button there not arguing with you

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby RedVEVO » July 28th, 2018, 7:08 pm

PariaMan wrote:Yep on the button there not arguing with you


We discussing (positive :D ) not arguing ( :cry: ) ..

Ok later dudes :lol:

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby Redman » July 28th, 2018, 8:52 pm

neilsingh100 wrote:
Redman wrote:GORTT is debt loaded and has just sold a Govt debt into a SPV that is capitalized by Equity-primarily RBL- who is out of growing space in its home country-the growth came from abroad.

Do you know RBL is the largest bank in Guyana? Guyana GDP will most likely triple by the end of 2030. By your logic we should sell all equities and bonds. What should UTC, NIB, life insurance companies, credit unions and pensions funds invest in?


You do know that I said its HOME country-and the growth came from abroad.

Yep and Guyana s econ can triple- and still be about 50% the size of ours today.
If you depending on Guyana to prop up RBLs dividend...good luck with that.

And one of those experts was forehead deep in the EFPAs at the point of collapse.

My point remains- for this NIF to work.....things have to go WELL - and things here and abroad are very uncertain-


Facts is facts.

Interest rates have to remain at circa 1%-they cannot go up substantially... getting into the bond math-price will move based on the IR move and the time....this boils down to duration.

The gurus here can work out the price discount if interest rates go up 1% by 2023.
Generally that will indicate a discount of about 15% on the price of the NIF

What are your expectations for interest rates????

The experts talk about that??

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby neilsingh100 » July 28th, 2018, 10:31 pm

Redman wrote:What are your expectations for interest rates????
The experts talk about that??
The repo rate is currently at 5% so don't see it reaching 6% anytime soon since CB increased it by 225 basis points from the low of 2.75% since 2014. If you plan to hold the bond to maturity interest rate does not come into play. BTW, nothing was wrong with investing in EFPAs once you understand the risk. You don't get to be wealthy by not taking risk.

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby Redman » July 29th, 2018, 4:18 am

In 2001 money market funds were paying 10%

Now we in the low single digits.

Our interest rate cycle is linked to global rates.
So it's not CBTT that is the issue.
It's not entirely in their control.

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby Redman » July 29th, 2018, 8:15 am

neilsingh100 wrote:
Redman wrote:What are your expectations for interest rates????
The experts talk about that??
The repo rate is currently at 5% so don't see it reaching 6% anytime soon since CB increased it by 225 basis points from the low of 2.75% since 2014. If you plan to hold the bond to maturity interest rate does not come into play. BTW, nothing was wrong with investing in EFPAs once you understand the risk. You don't get to be wealthy by not taking risk.


1)Higher rates will make the price dip. So the 20 year will trade below par until maturity.


2)Higher rates may mean a lower REAL RETURN due to higher inflation.
so the reality is that you cannot sanitize the interest rate risk

The experts are also selling the product.

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby neilsingh100 » July 29th, 2018, 8:58 am

Redman wrote:In 2001 money market funds were paying 10%

Now we in the low single digits.

Our interest rate cycle is linked to global rates.
So it's not CBTT that is the issue.
It's not entirely in their control.
It is highly unlikely money market funds or short term treasuries with pay that type of interest anytime soon since there is nothing in the foreseeable future to cause GDP growth at the rate we experienced in the 1992-2007 period. The CBTT is raising rates to to deal with the short term interest rate differential between US and TT dollar treasuries to prevent further outflow of forex. On the long end (15+ years) the differential is not so much of an issue. I think the biggest risk in the short to medium term is the depletion of foreign exchange reserves.

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby Redman » July 29th, 2018, 9:59 am

They better not hit 10% any time soon cuz it will mean we in the sheeeit.

I think a couple % points is possible....exogenous events can do that.

That risk is being glossed over in the context of the NIF pitch.

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby snatman » July 29th, 2018, 2:47 pm

meanwhile on the stock market in addition to capital gains:

WITCO, TTNGL, CIF and OCM are paying out 5% dividends

SFC, GHL, MASSY, SBTT Republic, FCB and FCI, are paying out between 4 and 5%

then there's the cinderella story of NCBFG which is growing exponentially and will continue to do so with the GHL takeover looming. And also down the road they may buy out JMMB which they already have a substantial holding in.

Needless to say, I've been buying up all the NCBFG i could and you should too!

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby RedVEVO » July 29th, 2018, 2:51 pm

Redman wrote:They better not hit 10% any time soon cuz it will mean we in the sheeeit.

I think a couple % points is possible....exogenous events can do that.

That risk is being glossed over in the context of the NIF pitch.



The risk is NOT being glossed over.

It's a conservative investment for the average man & institutional investors .

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby sMASH » July 29th, 2018, 3:36 pm

Saying its 'backed' by the government is also a bit of misdirection .

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Re: The "gift of the NIF" Another IPO. (correction - BOND offering)

Postby Redman » July 30th, 2018, 1:53 pm

With liabilities like Petrotrin-inside 5 years....and NIB insolvency....'backed by GORTT' means...???

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