COVID-19 in Trinidad & Tobago (Local Updates & Discussions Only)

[matr1x]

Given the overworked population, that number skyrockets.


Allegations that a failure at wuhan is the cause of all of this

[Dohplaydat]

yeah
you just cant say 2% infected gonna dead although it is a kinda rule of thumb.
Its usually the elderly and persons with compromised immune systems who die first.

the difference in the rate in mortality rate has to do with the incubation period. Hubei was infected a few weeks further ahead of the rest of the world, meaning more cases have played out to either death or recovery.

Put another way, I can inject 1,000,000 people with ebola and claim a 0% mortality rate the day after. Check back in a few weeks and the mortality rate would be different.

Not so simple, they use lots of sampling techniques and advanced models to take this into consideration. So the mortality rate as it is stands is what I stated

Or perhaps anyone with underlying health issue but we have a lot of ppl like that here. So if even 75% of population get it by year end how much will die?

Don't think anywhere near 75% of the population will get it. It's less contagious in the tropics, we're
cleaner than the Chinese, our places are much less congested and lastly we're more aware than Wuhan was.

Right now in Wuhan roughly 1% of the population have it, so let's say in the end 10% might get it.

Now let's play worst case in trini and say 15% get it. That's 225,000 people. Then worst case mortality rate is 3% so at most 7000 people will die.

That is bad and a lot worse than dengue, flu and others combined.

Roughly 7 in 1500 people or just over 1 in 200 people in Trinidad might die due to Coronavirus.

This is the absolute worst case though. Expected case is probably 1 in 5000 or 200-300 total deaths (still 10x worse than the flu).

[shake d livin wake d dead]

https://trinidadexpress.com/news/local/ ... 4ca59.html

precautionary measures in BIM

[Ben_spanna]

Personally i think the decision to move the americans from the ship to US soil was a stupid idea, lets just rescue our nationals from isolation and brign them home so that we can possibly infect the entire population slowly.

[Slartibartfast]

yeah
you just cant say 2% infected gonna dead although it is a kinda rule of thumb.
Its usually the elderly and persons with compromised immune systems who die first.

the difference in the rate in mortality rate has to do with the incubation period. Hubei was infected a few weeks further ahead of the rest of the world, meaning more cases have played out to either death or recovery.

Put another way, I can inject 1,000,000 people with ebola and claim a 0% mortality rate the day after. Check back in a few weeks and the mortality rate would be different.

Not so simple, they use lots of sampling techniques and advanced models to take this into consideration. So the mortality rate as it is stands is what I stated

Or perhaps anyone with underlying health issue but we have a lot of ppl like that here. So if even 75% of population get it by year end how much will die?

Don't think anywhere near 75% of the population will get it. It's less contagious in the tropics, we're
cleaner than the Chinese, our places are much less congested and lastly we're more aware than Wuhan was.

Right now in Wuhan roughly 1% of the population have it, so let's say in the end 10% might get it.

Now let's play worst case in trini and say 15% get it. That's 225,000 people. Then worst case mortality rate is 3% so at most 7000 people will die.

That is bad and a lot worse than dengue, flu and others combined.

Roughly 7 in 1500 people or just over 1 in 200 people in Trinidad might die due to Coronavirus.

This is the absolute worst case though. Expected case is probably 1 in 5000 or 200-300 total deaths (still 10x worse than the flu).

I think about 95% of our population would get it. Basically only those that can maintain complete isolation would be safe. It is extremely contagious (spread through aerosols) so that it can linger in a space after a person has left and no physical contact is needed. You are also infections during the asymptomatic 14 day incubation period. It's more than just about being clean. It's about quarantine ability, of which we have absolutely none.

All we need is one person to get it. They go to work for 2 weeks and continue spreading it people that are in the same rooms or vehicles as them throughout the day. After they get sick, you know they still going to come to work with it (because trini employers don't like employees to take time off unless they are seriously incapacitated). So they come to work with a little cough for a couple days where the cough up the virus all over the place (hardly anyone going to maintain a 100% cough coverage).

80% of the cases do not require hospitalisation with many people suffer no to mild symptoms. You know the majority of those people still coming to work, using public transport, visiting malls and crowded food courts etc.

China has been locking down entire towns, restricting the movement of 1/3 to 1/2 of their entire population, building new hospitals with negative pressure rooms and using robots to deliver suppliers to those infected and they still can't get a handle on it. How are we going to limit it to 15% of our population?

Honestly, as always, our only line of defense is to hope it doesn't reach our shores. Basically our only real line of defense is a failing tourism industry.

Edit: If you saying only 15% of the population will be detected with it, then I would say that actually sounds like an overstatement, but because of our failing healthcare system.

[redmanjp]

https://trinidadexpress.com/news/local/quarantined-in-barbados/article_0ad7d23c-5127-11ea-9759-83596804ca59.html

precautionary measures in BIM

HEALTH authorities in Barbados are monitoring 13 people who are quarantined in their homes after arriving from regions impacted by the coronavirus.

In addition, Barbados is set to carry out testing for the deadly virus, originating from China.

and what's preventing them from leaving their home and spreading the virus? Just like some female student did in Trinidad?they should be in a quarantine facility

[Dohplaydat]

yeah
you just cant say 2% infected gonna dead although it is a kinda rule of thumb.
Its usually the elderly and persons with compromised immune systems who die first.

the difference in the rate in mortality rate has to do with the incubation period. Hubei was infected a few weeks further ahead of the rest of the world, meaning more cases have played out to either death or recovery.

Put another way, I can inject 1,000,000 people with ebola and claim a 0% mortality rate the day after. Check back in a few weeks and the mortality rate would be different.

Not so simple, they use lots of sampling techniques and advanced models to take this into consideration. So the mortality rate as it is stands is what I stated

Or perhaps anyone with underlying health issue but we have a lot of ppl like that here. So if even 75% of population get it by year end how much will die?

Don't think anywhere near 75% of the population will get it. It's less contagious in the tropics, we're
cleaner than the Chinese, our places are much less congested and lastly we're more aware than Wuhan was.

Right now in Wuhan roughly 1% of the population have it, so let's say in the end 10% might get it.

Now let's play worst case in trini and say 15% get it. That's 225,000 people. Then worst case mortality rate is 3% so at most 7000 people will die.

That is bad and a lot worse than dengue, flu and others combined.

Roughly 7 in 1500 people or just over 1 in 200 people in Trinidad might die due to Coronavirus.

This is the absolute worst case though. Expected case is probably 1 in 5000 or 200-300 total deaths (still 10x worse than the flu).

I think about 95% of our population would get it. Basically only those that can maintain complete isolation would be safe. It is extremely contagious (spread through aerosols) so that it can linger in a space after a person has left and no physical contact is needed. You are also infections during the asymptomatic 14 day incubation period. It's more than just about being clean. It's about quarantine ability, of which we have absolutely none.

All we need is one person to get it. They go to work for 2 weeks and continue spreading it people that are in the same rooms or vehicles as them throughout the day. After they get sick, you know they still going to come to work with it (because trini employers don't like employees to take time off unless they are seriously incapacitated). So they come to work with a little cough for a couple days where the cough up the virus all over the place (hardly anyone going to maintain a 100% cough coverage).

80% of the cases do not require hospitalisation with many people suffer no to mild symptoms. You know the majority of those people still coming to work, using public transport, visiting malls and crowded food courts etc.

China has been locking down entire towns, restricting the movement of 1/3 to 1/2 of their entire population, building new hospitals with negative pressure rooms and using robots to deliver suppliers to those infected and they still can't get a handle on it. How are we going to limit it to 15% of our population?

Honestly, as always, our only line of defense is to hope it doesn't reach our shores. Basically our only real line of defense is a failing tourism industry.

Edit: If you saying only 15% of the population will be detected with it, then I would say that actually sounds like an overstatement, but because of our failing healthcare system.

95% over what time? I was saying by the end of year.

Either way, if it's so contagious yet deaths still relatively low then it's not as harmful or threatening as we think.

[killercow]

Just like some female student did in Trinidad?

More info required! Asking for me

[pugboy]

one of the factors also is population size that is potentially available to be infected as a critical mass and spread wildly for a while
until it wanes due to not enough fresh victims to infect.
for example chik v caught speed in a matter of months and persisted for a year or two with serious effects

but now i would assume enough of the population has already been infected and not infectable again that the mosquitoes dont have many current infected victims to catch it from and retransmit on a continuous basis

[redmanjp]

Just like some female student did in Trinidad?

More info required! Asking for me

there was a student who came in from China before the ban took effect that was supposed to be in isolation at home but left home to do a CNC3 interview- which the Health Minister said (on CNC3 itself) was reckless. which is why i say mandatory quarantine in a facility where u are blocked from escaping

[sMASH]

1900 deaths so far, in update from RT, also saying the head of the Wuhan hospital died of the virus.

[streetbeastINC.]

Stop panicking

Health officials in China have published the first details of more than 70,000 cases of Covid-19, in the biggest study since the outbreak began.
Data from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) found that more than 80% of the cases have been mild with the sick and elderly most at risk.
The research also points to the high risk for medical staff.
The findings put the overall death rate of the Covid-19 virus at 2.3%.
In Hubei, the worst affected province, the death rate is 2.9% compared with only 0.4% in the rest of the country.
China's latest official figures released on Tuesday put the overall death toll at 1,868 and 72,436 infections.



Officials said there were 98 new deaths and 1,886 new cases in the past day, 93 of those deaths and 1,807 of the infections were in Hubei province - the epicentre of the outbreak.
More than 12,000 people have recovered, according to Chinese authorities.

What does the study tell us?

The paper by the CCDC, released on Monday and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, looked at all 72,314 cases of Covid-19 diagnosed across China as of 11 February, including confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases.
While the results largely confirm previous descriptions of the virus and patterns of infection, the study includes a detailed breakdown of the 44,672 confirmed cases across all of China.
Some of the conclusions reached include the following:

Some 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical.

The highest fatality rate is for people aged 80 and older, at 14.8%.

For children up to 9, there have been no fatalities and up to the age of 39, the death rate remains low at 0.2%.

For the next age groups, the fatality rates increase gradually: For people in their 40s it is 0.4%, in their 50s it is 1.3%, in their 60s it is 3.6% and their 70s it is 8%.

Looking at the sex ratio, men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).

Identifying which existing illnesses put patients at risk, the study finds cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension.

If we take wuhan out of this equation the death rate is insignificant.

[streetbeastINC.]

Note properly the info

[streetbeastINC.]

Note the trend .

Hope the epidemic ""enters burnout ""

[j.o.e]

Men trying to maintain panic no matter what the facts say. Lol ...... losers

[pugboy]

i see the 3m n95 masks selling for $10 in couva

[Dohplaydat]

Stop panicking

Health officials in China have published the first details of more than 70,000 cases of Covid-19, in the biggest study since the outbreak began.
Data from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) found that more than 80% of the cases have been mild with the sick and elderly most at risk.
The research also points to the high risk for medical staff.
The findings put the overall death rate of the Covid-19 virus at 2.3%.
In Hubei, the worst affected province, the death rate is 2.9% compared with only 0.4% in the rest of the country.
China's latest official figures released on Tuesday put the overall death toll at 1,868 and 72,436 infections.



Officials said there were 98 new deaths and 1,886 new cases in the past day, 93 of those deaths and 1,807 of the infections were in Hubei province - the epicentre of the outbreak.
More than 12,000 people have recovered, according to Chinese authorities.

What does the study tell us?

The paper by the CCDC, released on Monday and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, looked at all 72,314 cases of Covid-19 diagnosed across China as of 11 February, including confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases.
While the results largely confirm previous descriptions of the virus and patterns of infection, the study includes a detailed breakdown of the 44,672 confirmed cases across all of China.
Some of the conclusions reached include the following:

Some 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical.

The highest fatality rate is for people aged 80 and older, at 14.8%.

For children up to 9, there have been no fatalities and up to the age of 39, the death rate remains low at 0.2%.

For the next age groups, the fatality rates increase gradually: For people in their 40s it is 0.4%, in their 50s it is 1.3%, in their 60s it is 3.6% and their 70s it is 8%.

Looking at the sex ratio, men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).

Identifying which existing illnesses put patients at risk, the study finds cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension.

If we take wuhan out of this equation the death rate is insignificant.

Steups if we don't cancel carnival 25% of we population go dead by the end of the year.

/S

[shake d livin wake d dead]

There is a vid going around which says that China is seeking permission from their supreme court to kill more than 20k infected persons...they believe that this will assist in stopping the virus from spreading....not sure how truthful this video is

[Kenjo]

There is a vid going around which says that China is seeking permission from their supreme court to kill more than 20k infected persons...they believe that this will assist in stopping the virus from spreading....not sure how truthful this video is

Lol

[shake d livin wake d dead]

There is a vid going around which says that China is seeking permission from their supreme court to kill more than 20k infected persons...they believe that this will assist in stopping the virus from spreading....not sure how truthful this video is

Lol

Its false

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indiat ... 2020-02-07

[sMASH]

There is a vid going around which says that China is seeking permission from their supreme court to kill more than 20k infected persons...they believe that this will assist in stopping the virus from spreading....not sure how truthful this video is

even within that strain, there might be stronger and weaker versions. i thinking, what they can do, is the people with confirmed corona wuhan, that have been very mild, but also the persons were not unusually strong against it, like small or older, that they should be allowed to spread it to the population.

maintain the strict control that they set up, but let the weakest versions pervade,
i thinking like the mosqutoes and malaria, u let the mechanism continue to work, but let it work with the version that will nullify itself.

[wickedtuna]

Saw this on circulating online .....claims to b published in 1981

[Slartibartfast]

95% over what time? I was saying by the end of year.

Either way, if it's so contagious yet deaths still relatively low then it's not as harmful or threatening as we think.

Yeah, it's a balance. This is far more contagious but far less deadly than other outbreaks (eg. Ebola). If you want to rate seriousness on how many people this is going to kill (which I think is fair), and not just the death rate then you have to consider how contagious it is as well. Luckily China responded drastically so they seem to be containing it for now and other countries have been taking it serious enough to not let it spread.

If it gets out, the number of deaths could top other more deadly viruses and that's why it seems more serious even though it is less deadly.

Compare it to SARS
8,098 people infected in 8 months resulting in 774 deaths. That's a death rate of 10.9%

COVID-19
Over 73,000 people infected in about 2 months resulting in over 1800 deaths. That's a death rate of about 2.5%

So SARS is 4 times as deadly as COVID-19 but COVID-19 killed over twice as many people in a quarter of the time so you can say that it is 8 times more serious.

At then end of the day, once you are living in this country there is nothing you can do but hope for it to miss us. So it doesn't matter if you are worrying or not worrying because that's not going to make a difference either. Also, banning Carnival not going to make any difference whatsoever. Kind of like how everything our government currently doing to tackle crime. Wishful thinking does not get results. (that last bit not aimed at you eh, just a general comment).

[Slartibartfast]

Saw this on circulating online .....claims to b published in 1981Screenshot_2020-02-18-15-24-59.jpeg

If you want to get into conspiracy theories, Wuhan has the only Biosafety Level 4 lab in China equipped to study deadly viruses like the SARS coronavirus. I have no idea what a BSL-4 lab is, I'm just parroting stuff I've seen floating about so don't quote me on any of this

[wickedtuna]

Fiction but ......

Saw this on circulating online .....claims to b published in 1981Screenshot_2020-02-18-15-24-59.jpeg

If you want to get into conspiracy theories, Wuhan has the only Biosafety Level 4 lab in China equipped to study deadly viruses like the SARS coronavirus. I have no idea what a BSL-4 lab is, I'm just parroting stuff I've seen floating about so don't quote me on any of this

[SMc]

what about the people who were planning to travel to Japan & SE Asia in the next couple weeks, any support from the airlines if they decide they want go-asking for a friend?

[adnj]

Might be close to 2000 dead by Monday
With such increase of infections the numbers expected dead (2%) must increase to follow...

2000 fatalities on Tuesday. Good estimate.

[abducted]

Fiction but ......

Similar images on social media

[maj. tom]

but that's not real though.
And the internet isn't stumped. Several websites actually interested in news have debunked this novel prediction nonsense. Thousands of others have rehashed fake news for clicks, views, ratings, shares, likes...

Clearly debunked by the 2 leading and reputable fact finder websitea on the internet.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dean- ... ronavirus/
http://www.hoaxorfact.com/social-awaren ... -1981.html

[adnj]

Predicting a new respiratory virus coming out of Asia isn't very noteworthy. Nearly all novel influenza and corona viruses come from SE Asia and a new mutation is not uncommon every year.

How about germ warfare predictions from 1969?