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When do you get your vaccine shipment so that I can start paying attention to what you have to say about vaccine shipments?paid_influencer wrote:here's a suggestion. we are moving into have potentially 5 different vaccines being distributed at the same time on the island. So we need to figure out a policy over who gets what, instead of it being a free-for-all based on who has links and connections.
I propose the following:
The data we have on Sinopharm comes from a Phase 3 trial. That data has limitations, particular for older persons and persons with comorbidities. You can read the WHO summary here of the data we have on Sinopharm.
The evidence gaps are below (and this is copy/pasted straight from the WHO link above:Evidence gaps
•Protection against severe disease
•Duration of protection, need for booster doses, and future risk of vaccine-associated enhanced disease
•Protection against variants of concern
•Safety in pregnancy
•Safety and clinical protection in older adults, those with underlying disease and other subpopulations
•Identification and evaluation of rare adverse events detected through post-authorization safety monitoring
But there is significant data on healthy adults in the age range 18-60 years old. So I propose we use Sinopharm on that demographic: healthy adults in the age range 18-60 years old.
Young people have much higher survival rates against COVID generally, so the difference in efficacy does not come into play much, if at all. A 79% efficacy vs 95% efficacy will not be a huge difference if your chance of death is already very miniscule because you are a spritely 20-something or 30-something. We would be moving this demographic from "no vaccine" under the current system to a 79% efficacy vaccine under my proposal.
But for older adults (>50) and those with co-morbidities (diabetes, heart disease, etc) - reserve the higher efficacy vaccines for them. And enforce it.
adnj wrote:When do you get your vaccine shipment so that I can start paying attention to what you have to say about vaccine shipments?paid_influencer wrote:here's a suggestion. we are moving into have potentially 5 different vaccines being distributed at the same time on the island. So we need to figure out a policy over who gets what, instead of it being a free-for-all based on who has links and connections.
I propose the following:
The data we have on Sinopharm comes from a Phase 3 trial. That data has limitations, particular for older persons and persons with comorbidities. You can read the WHO summary here of the data we have on Sinopharm.
The evidence gaps are below (and this is copy/pasted straight from the WHO link above:Evidence gaps
•Protection against severe disease
•Duration of protection, need for booster doses, and future risk of vaccine-associated enhanced disease
•Protection against variants of concern
•Safety in pregnancy
•Safety and clinical protection in older adults, those with underlying disease and other subpopulations
•Identification and evaluation of rare adverse events detected through post-authorization safety monitoring
But there is significant data on healthy adults in the age range 18-60 years old. So I propose we use Sinopharm on that demographic: healthy adults in the age range 18-60 years old.
Young people have much higher survival rates against COVID generally, so the difference in efficacy does not come into play much, if at all. A 79% efficacy vs 95% efficacy will not be a huge difference if your chance of death is already very miniscule because you are a spritely 20-something or 30-something. We would be moving this demographic from "no vaccine" under the current system to a 79% efficacy vaccine under my proposal.
But for older adults (>50) and those with co-morbidities (diabetes, heart disease, etc) - reserve the higher efficacy vaccines for them. And enforce it.
Vulnerable individuals—including those who are obese, over 50 or have long-term illnesses—are being urged get a Pfizer booster shot six months after receiving their last Sinopharm inoculation, reported the Wall Street Journal.
While a government spokesperson told Forbes the vaccine offers a similarly high level of protection as other vaccines, the policy change comes after the country already started offering Sinopharm boosters while battling a Covid surge five times as deadly as India’s despite having around 50% of its population fully vaccinated.
Several other highly vaccinated countries that deployed the Sinopharm shot heavily are also experiencing severe outbreaks, with the UAE and the Seychelles both considering or implementing booster programs of their own.
Global concerns surrounding the efficacy of Chinese-made vaccines—notably Sinopharm and Sinovac, which have both been granted emergency authorization by the WHO—have festered due to a lack of public clinical data needed to verify manufacturers’ claims, deficiencies in the data that is made available and the widespread politicization of vaccines.
The peer-reviewed study from Sinopharm’s Phase 3 trial, published at the end of May, found the vaccine to 79% effective at preventing symptomatic disease, but noted the predominantly young, healthy and male trial participants meant it had “insufficient power to test the efficacy among those with chronic diseases, women, (and) older adults,” a concern the WHO echoed for older people.
The study’s authors also noted that no conclusions could be drawn from the trial about the prevention of both severe and asymptomatic disease.
Sinopharm did not respond to Forbes’ request for comment on this story.
Pfizer: 95 percent efficacy in preventing an infection in people with no prior infections.
Moderna: 94.1 percent effective at preventing a symptomatic infection in people who have not previously contracted a coronavirus infection.
Johnson & Johnson: 72 percent overall efficacy and 86 percent efficacy against severe illness.
AstraZeneca: 76 percent effective at reducing the risk of symptomatic disease after both doses, and 100 percent effective against severe disease. The company has also claimed an 86 percent effectiveness rate of preventing a coronavirus infection in people over age 65 years.
George Gao, the head of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, acknowledged the poor efficacy of China’s vaccines at a conference in April, in what seemed to be an unintentional dissent from the party line. Gao said China was “formally considering” changes to its vaccines to “solve the problem that the efficacy of the existing vaccines is not high.” China responded swiftly, flushing discussion from social media and rebutting the incorrect interpretation of Gao’s statement. On state media, Gao later described it as a “misunderstanding.”
paid_influencer wrote:
the limiting factor now might infact be how quickly we can get these shots into arms. Current rate is what, 5000 persons/day, not working on weekends or holidays. So dais about 100,000 a month -- or about a year to vaccinate everybody. hopefully they can scale it up
redmanjp wrote:paid_influencer wrote:
the limiting factor now might infact be how quickly we can get these shots into arms. Current rate is what, 5000 persons/day, not working on weekends or holidays. So dais about 100,000 a month -- or about a year to vaccinate everybody. hopefully they can scale it up
yeah we need a 'war time effort' just like US, military and all putting shots into arms. the next thing is when the 2nd dose rollout starts that will slow down new 1st shot rollouts as there will be less staff to do that. less sites too as i believe some sites only reserved for 2nd shots.
so we done already have a strained healthcare system, now we have to do 2nd shots, how much available to do continuing 1st shots? they better call out the whole army. private sector nurses/doctors as well.
De Dragon wrote:redmanjp wrote:paid_influencer wrote:
the limiting factor now might infact be how quickly we can get these shots into arms. Current rate is what, 5000 persons/day, not working on weekends or holidays. So dais about 100,000 a month -- or about a year to vaccinate everybody. hopefully they can scale it up
yeah we need a 'war time effort' just like US, military and all putting shots into arms. the next thing is when the 2nd dose rollout starts that will slow down new 1st shot rollouts as there will be less staff to do that. less sites too as i believe some sites only reserved for 2nd shots.
so we done already have a strained healthcare system, now we have to do 2nd shots, how much available to do continuing 1st shots? they better call out the whole army. private sector nurses/doctors as well.
Vaccine lottery and freebies, yunno how we love those
I don't anticipate any government policy changes coming out of posting on Tuner ever 12 minutes.Dohplaydat wrote:adnj wrote:When do you get your vaccine shipment so that I can start paying attention to what you have to say about vaccine shipments?paid_influencer wrote:here's a suggestion. we are moving into have potentially 5 different vaccines being distributed at the same time on the island. So we need to figure out a policy over who gets what, instead of it being a free-for-all based on who has links and connections.
I propose the following:
The data we have on Sinopharm comes from a Phase 3 trial. That data has limitations, particular for older persons and persons with comorbidities. You can read the WHO summary here of the data we have on Sinopharm.
The evidence gaps are below (and this is copy/pasted straight from the WHO link above:Evidence gaps
•Protection against severe disease
•Duration of protection, need for booster doses, and future risk of vaccine-associated enhanced disease
•Protection against variants of concern
•Safety in pregnancy
•Safety and clinical protection in older adults, those with underlying disease and other subpopulations
•Identification and evaluation of rare adverse events detected through post-authorization safety monitoring
But there is significant data on healthy adults in the age range 18-60 years old. So I propose we use Sinopharm on that demographic: healthy adults in the age range 18-60 years old.
Young people have much higher survival rates against COVID generally, so the difference in efficacy does not come into play much, if at all. A 79% efficacy vs 95% efficacy will not be a huge difference if your chance of death is already very miniscule because you are a spritely 20-something or 30-something. We would be moving this demographic from "no vaccine" under the current system to a 79% efficacy vaccine under my proposal.
But for older adults (>50) and those with co-morbidities (diabetes, heart disease, etc) - reserve the higher efficacy vaccines for them. And enforce it.
Nah bro he's right. We are using Sinopharm wrongly.Vulnerable individuals—including those who are obese, over 50 or have long-term illnesses—are being urged get a Pfizer booster shot six months after receiving their last Sinopharm inoculation, reported the Wall Street Journal.
While a government spokesperson told Forbes the vaccine offers a similarly high level of protection as other vaccines, the policy change comes after the country already started offering Sinopharm boosters while battling a Covid surge five times as deadly as India’s despite having around 50% of its population fully vaccinated.
Several other highly vaccinated countries that deployed the Sinopharm shot heavily are also experiencing severe outbreaks, with the UAE and the Seychelles both considering or implementing booster programs of their own.
Global concerns surrounding the efficacy of Chinese-made vaccines—notably Sinopharm and Sinovac, which have both been granted emergency authorization by the WHO—have festered due to a lack of public clinical data needed to verify manufacturers’ claims, deficiencies in the data that is made available and the widespread politicization of vaccines.
The peer-reviewed study from Sinopharm’s Phase 3 trial, published at the end of May, found the vaccine to 79% effective at preventing symptomatic disease, but noted the predominantly young, healthy and male trial participants meant it had “insufficient power to test the efficacy among those with chronic diseases, women, (and) older adults,” a concern the WHO echoed for older people.
The study’s authors also noted that no conclusions could be drawn from the trial about the prevention of both severe and asymptomatic disease.
Sinopharm did not respond to Forbes’ request for comment on this story.
Note the 79% efficacy being paraded around by Sinopharm isn't the same measure the other vaccine makers are using.
The 79% is reportedly based on preventing symptomatic disease. They aren't using the data where they test the individuals using PCR to see if they're asymptomatic.
If they did it's likely Sinopharm might score 50% of less which is why countries using Sinopharm are having huge outbreaks. Getting to herd immunity with Sinopharm might be near impossible.
Note how the other manufacturers are quoting their efficacy results:Pfizer: 95 percent efficacy in preventing an infection in people with no prior infections.
Moderna: 94.1 percent effective at preventing a symptomatic infection in people who have not previously contracted a coronavirus infection.
Johnson & Johnson: 72 percent overall efficacy and 86 percent efficacy against severe illness.
AstraZeneca: 76 percent effective at reducing the risk of symptomatic disease after both doses, and 100 percent effective against severe disease. The company has also claimed an 86 percent effectiveness rate of preventing a coronavirus infection in people over age 65 years.
That said, still take whatever vaccine you have on offer, but as a country we NEED to get more non Chinese vaccines.
adnj wrote:
I don't anticipate any government policy changes coming out of posting on Tuner ever 12 minutes.
redmanjp wrote:govt changed vaccination policy to include high risk under 60 ppl after i mentioned it
also they are thinking of allowing an eCommerce reopening (delivery only) before in person in the first phases of reopening - i mentioned this months ago
let's see if they allow fully vaxxed returning nationals to home quarantine- not now but when this surge goes down
Dohplaydat wrote:redmanjp wrote:govt changed vaccination policy to include high risk under 60 ppl after i mentioned it
also they are thinking of allowing an eCommerce reopening (delivery only) before in person in the first phases of reopening - i mentioned this months ago
let's see if they allow fully vaxxed returning nationals to home quarantine- not now but when this surge goes down
The most certainly need to open the borders for vaccinated travelers (who have a negative PCR as well).
Habit7 wrote:Guyana to receive Johnson & Johnson vaccine
By Stabroek News June 1, 2021
Guyana is expected to receive approximately 150,000 doses of the Johnson & Johnson single-shot COVID-19 vaccine next month.
This is according to Minister of Health, Dr. Frank Anthony who stated during his daily COVID-19 update yesterday that the government’s policy is to acquire as many vaccines as possible from multiple sources. The health minister went on to say that the procurement of these vaccines is being facilitated through a deal between CARICOM and the African Union (AU).
In February, Anthony had said in the National Assembly that through this arrangement the AU has set aside some 1.5 million doses of vaccines for the Caribbean. He had subsequently reported that the doses were not going to be free.
https://www.stabroeknews.com/2021/06/01 ... n-vaccine/
The PM was purposefully vague last Saturday on the source of the vaccines he was being so optimistic about. But it seems in Guyana they let the cat out of the bag. If they are getting vaccines out of the Africa Medical Supplies Platform which the entire Caricom went into agreement with, then we should receive AMSP vaccines too.
adnj wrote:Updated.
COVID-19 vaccine efficacy summary
Publication date:
June 4, 2021
To project future COVID-19 trends, IHME centralizes and updates all available data on vaccine efficacy. This document summarizes the available data and key underlying assumptions of IHME’s projections. This page is updated monthly; for interim updates please see the "Methods updates" section of our weekly policy briefings.
Using all publications, reports, and news articles, we review all available data to find how effective vaccines are at achieving multiple outcomes. “Vaccine efficacy” is not a single number – we capture:
Prevention of symptomatic disease: a vaccine’s efficacy at causing an exposed individual not to suffer the symptoms of COVID-19 infection. The person can contract the virus but will not develop disease.
Prevention of severe disease: a vaccine’s efficacy at preventing an exposed person from developing more serious symptoms that often require hospitalization.
Prevention of infection: a vaccine’s efficacy at stopping transmission of the virus from one person to another. An exposed person will not contract the virus, and by definition they will also not develop symptoms or disease.
st7 wrote:hey adnj, can you link the site you got this on? i wanna share the graphic but want to also cite the source... thanks!
adnj wrote:st7 wrote:hey adnj, can you link the site you got this on? i wanna share the graphic but want to also cite the source... thanks!
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/covid-1 ... cy-summary
st7 wrote:adnj wrote:Updated.
COVID-19 vaccine efficacy summary
Publication date:
June 4, 2021
To project future COVID-19 trends, IHME centralizes and updates all available data on vaccine efficacy. This document summarizes the available data and key underlying assumptions of IHME’s projections. This page is updated monthly; for interim updates please see the "Methods updates" section of our weekly policy briefings.
Using all publications, reports, and news articles, we review all available data to find how effective vaccines are at achieving multiple outcomes. “Vaccine efficacy” is not a single number – we capture:
Prevention of symptomatic disease: a vaccine’s efficacy at causing an exposed individual not to suffer the symptoms of COVID-19 infection. The person can contract the virus but will not develop disease.
Prevention of severe disease: a vaccine’s efficacy at preventing an exposed person from developing more serious symptoms that often require hospitalization.
Prevention of infection: a vaccine’s efficacy at stopping transmission of the virus from one person to another. An exposed person will not contract the virus, and by definition they will also not develop symptoms or disease.
hey adnj, can you link the site you got this on? i wanna share the graphic but want to also cite the source... thanks!
The Serrana experiment that you cited yesterday was specific to CoronaVac, the least efficacious of the available vaccines, with a 95% reduction in death and 86% reduction in hospitalizations.redmanjp wrote:st7 wrote:adnj wrote:Updated.
COVID-19 vaccine efficacy summary
Publication date:
June 4, 2021
To project future COVID-19 trends, IHME centralizes and updates all available data on vaccine efficacy. This document summarizes the available data and key underlying assumptions of IHME’s projections. This page is updated monthly; for interim updates please see the "Methods updates" section of our weekly policy briefings.
Using all publications, reports, and news articles, we review all available data to find how effective vaccines are at achieving multiple outcomes. “Vaccine efficacy” is not a single number – we capture:
Prevention of symptomatic disease: a vaccine’s efficacy at causing an exposed individual not to suffer the symptoms of COVID-19 infection. The person can contract the virus but will not develop disease.
Prevention of severe disease: a vaccine’s efficacy at preventing an exposed person from developing more serious symptoms that often require hospitalization.
Prevention of infection: a vaccine’s efficacy at stopping transmission of the virus from one person to another. An exposed person will not contract the virus, and by definition they will also not develop symptoms or disease.
hey adnj, can you link the site you got this on? i wanna share the graphic but want to also cite the source... thanks!
That efficacy against disease for both AZ and Sinopharm with the P1 variant is very concerning.
Disease means hospitalization?
redmanjp wrote:st7 wrote:adnj wrote:Updated.
COVID-19 vaccine efficacy summary
Publication date:
June 4, 2021
To project future COVID-19 trends, IHME centralizes and updates all available data on vaccine efficacy. This document summarizes the available data and key underlying assumptions of IHME’s projections. This page is updated monthly; for interim updates please see the "Methods updates" section of our weekly policy briefings.
Using all publications, reports, and news articles, we review all available data to find how effective vaccines are at achieving multiple outcomes. “Vaccine efficacy” is not a single number – we capture:
Prevention of symptomatic disease: a vaccine’s efficacy at causing an exposed individual not to suffer the symptoms of COVID-19 infection. The person can contract the virus but will not develop disease.
Prevention of severe disease: a vaccine’s efficacy at preventing an exposed person from developing more serious symptoms that often require hospitalization.
Prevention of infection: a vaccine’s efficacy at stopping transmission of the virus from one person to another. An exposed person will not contract the virus, and by definition they will also not develop symptoms or disease.
hey adnj, can you link the site you got this on? i wanna share the graphic but want to also cite the source... thanks!
That efficacy against disease for both AZ and Sinopharm with the P1 variant is very concerning.
Disease means hospitalization?
paid_influencer wrote:Sinopharm - directly from the People's Republic of China - at least 100,000 doses / 50,000 vaccines next week (out of a 1.5M dose, 750,000 vaccine order). Sinopharm looks to be the backbone of the vaccination drive until at least August.
COVAX - 33,000 doses (or about 15,000 vaccines) of AstraZeneca coming soon. This is the last tranche of the order we made last year. These will likely be used to fulfill the second dose of those being given shots now.
COVAX - Biden's donation will be sent via USA--->COVAX-->CARPHA-->Trinidad. No word yet on quantity, but it should be here in a month or two. These will be initially Pfizer, Moderna or J&J. This is expected to be an ongoing effort by the USA. AstraZeneca may be added, but is still waiting on quality checks.
African Medical Supply Platform - J&J vaccines 800,000 doses (800,000 vaccines) placed on order for hopefully delivery in August. These will likely be made by the new South African plant (Aspen Pharma) - so hope and pray everything passes quality checks and works out on schedule for August.
TLDR: Sinopharm until August and then J&J/Sinopharm thereafter. We might get a significant donation from Biden/Kamala (which looks to be the case actually), but is still mostly Sinopharm we looking at now.
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