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MISHI wrote:PariaMan wrote:These guys have been on the button since Sunday
Invest 91-L Located About 1000 Miles East-Southeast Of The Windward Islands:
I am closely following a fairly strong tropical disturbance which is located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Slow, but steady development is likely from this system, which is designated Invest 91-L by the National Hurricane Center. This is the same feature that the model guidance have been developing into a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean. This morning’s global model guidance is no different and continues to forecast tropical cyclone development over the next few days. Current analysis of surface and upper air maps support the model forecasts as upper level conditions are expected to become favorable for development within the next couple of days or so.
Satellite loops this morning showed a system that is well-organized with notable low-level turning in the clouds. Based on the current state of this system and the forecast for favorable environmental conditions, I think this will be upgraded to a tropical depression by or before Saturday evening.
So, let’s take a look at both the global model guidance and the hurricane track model guidance from this morning:
The GFS operational model forecasts that this system will wait to develop into a tropical cyclone until it is in the southeast Caribbean on Sunday. After that, it forecasts this system to develop and intensify in the central Caribbean early next week and forecasts it to track across Hispaniola next Thursday. The GFS model then forecasts this system to become absorbed into a strong coastal storm tracking off of the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines next Friday. It should be noted that the GFS ensemble guidance is much different than its operational counterpart and forecasts this system to not become entrained by the deep Eastern US trough, but instead forecasts a scenario that has it hanging around the western and central Caribbean for pretty much all of next week.
The European operational model forecasts this system to try and develop before getting into the Caribbean and forecasts a track that takes it over Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada during Saturday. After that, the European model forecasts this system to initially track west-northwestward to about 80 West Longitude in the Caribbean on Wednesday and forecasts a scenario that shows this system hanging around south of Jamaica through at least next Saturday.
The European ensemble guidance is trending towards a scenario that shows a ridge of high pressure hanging around longer causing this system to hang back in the western Caribbean and not be picked up by the Eastern US trough.
The Canadian model forecasts a scenario that shows development and intensification before it reaches the Windward Islands and takes it across the Windward Islands and just south of Barbados on Saturday. Once in the eastern Caribbean, the Canadian model forecasts this system to intensify into a fairly strong storm during Sunday and Monday and forecasts a track that would take it over Hispaniola on Tuesday night and over the southeastern Bahamas late Wednesday and Wednesday night and then out into the open Atlantic after that.
I do not believe the hurricane track models like the BAM models as it is forecasting a track that has it crashing into South America. The HWRF model, however, is a little more believable as it forecasts a west-northwest track over the next couple of days and forecasts this system to track right over Barbados late Saturday as a tropical storm and then right over Martinique as a upper end tropical storm early Sunday morning. After that, the HWRF model forecasts this system to slow way down in the eastern Caribbean and intensify, so that by late Monday night it is forecast to be located near 16 North Latitude, 65 West Longitude as a Category 2 hurricane.
So, this is what I’m thinking this morning: I think Invest 91-L will track westward over the next 24 to 36 hours and then turn more to the west-northwest as it encounters a weakness in a ridge of high pressure. This should cause Invest 91-L to miss South America and instead track about halfway between Tabago and Barbados and then over St. Vincent during Saturday as perhaps a 50 to 60 mph tropical storm. After that, Invest 91-L is forecast to track into the eastern Caribbean late this weekend and then slowly track towards the central Caribbean early next week and be near 16 North Latitude, 69 West Longitude in 5 days from now or on Tuesday morning as a upper end Category 1 or low end Category 2 hurricane. After that, who knows as there is an equal chance of either this system being picked up by the East Coast trough or be left behind just south of Jamaica by later next week.
So, all interests in the Windward Islands, Trinidad, Tobago and Barbados should closely monitor the progress of this system as Invest 91-L may be on your doorstep in just 48 hours as a tropical storm. In addition, all interests in the Caribbean, especially those in Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic should keep close tabs on this system. I will be keeping a close eye on this potential and will keep you all updated.
This sounds like Patrick Jattan from TEMA Tobago.
redmanjp wrote:that mean epic rain & flood Friday night into Saturday
btw, do sandbags really stop flood from coming into your home/business? if so, then ODPM should be handing that out every rainy season
PariaMan wrote:MISHI wrote:PariaMan wrote:These guys have been on the button since Sunday
Invest 91-L Located About 1000 Miles East-Southeast Of The Windward Islands:
I am closely following a fairly strong tropical disturbance which is located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Slow, but steady development is likely from this system, which is designated Invest 91-L by the National Hurricane Center. This is the same feature that the model guidance have been developing into a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean. This morning’s global model guidance is no different and continues to forecast tropical cyclone development over the next few days. Current analysis of surface and upper air maps support the model forecasts as upper level conditions are expected to become favorable for development within the next couple of days or so.
Satellite loops this morning showed a system that is well-organized with notable low-level turning in the clouds. Based on the current state of this system and the forecast for favorable environmental conditions, I think this will be upgraded to a tropical depression by or before Saturday evening.
So, let’s take a look at both the global model guidance and the hurricane track model guidance from this morning:
The GFS operational model forecasts that this system will wait to develop into a tropical cyclone until it is in the southeast Caribbean on Sunday. After that, it forecasts this system to develop and intensify in the central Caribbean early next week and forecasts it to track across Hispaniola next Thursday. The GFS model then forecasts this system to become absorbed into a strong coastal storm tracking off of the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines next Friday. It should be noted that the GFS ensemble guidance is much different than its operational counterpart and forecasts this system to not become entrained by the deep Eastern US trough, but instead forecasts a scenario that has it hanging around the western and central Caribbean for pretty much all of next week.
The European operational model forecasts this system to try and develop before getting into the Caribbean and forecasts a track that takes it over Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada during Saturday. After that, the European model forecasts this system to initially track west-northwestward to about 80 West Longitude in the Caribbean on Wednesday and forecasts a scenario that shows this system hanging around south of Jamaica through at least next Saturday.
The European ensemble guidance is trending towards a scenario that shows a ridge of high pressure hanging around longer causing this system to hang back in the western Caribbean and not be picked up by the Eastern US trough.
The Canadian model forecasts a scenario that shows development and intensification before it reaches the Windward Islands and takes it across the Windward Islands and just south of Barbados on Saturday. Once in the eastern Caribbean, the Canadian model forecasts this system to intensify into a fairly strong storm during Sunday and Monday and forecasts a track that would take it over Hispaniola on Tuesday night and over the southeastern Bahamas late Wednesday and Wednesday night and then out into the open Atlantic after that.
I do not believe the hurricane track models like the BAM models as it is forecasting a track that has it crashing into South America. The HWRF model, however, is a little more believable as it forecasts a west-northwest track over the next couple of days and forecasts this system to track right over Barbados late Saturday as a tropical storm and then right over Martinique as a upper end tropical storm early Sunday morning. After that, the HWRF model forecasts this system to slow way down in the eastern Caribbean and intensify, so that by late Monday night it is forecast to be located near 16 North Latitude, 65 West Longitude as a Category 2 hurricane.
So, this is what I’m thinking this morning: I think Invest 91-L will track westward over the next 24 to 36 hours and then turn more to the west-northwest as it encounters a weakness in a ridge of high pressure. This should cause Invest 91-L to miss South America and instead track about halfway between Tabago and Barbados and then over St. Vincent during Saturday as perhaps a 50 to 60 mph tropical storm. After that, Invest 91-L is forecast to track into the eastern Caribbean late this weekend and then slowly track towards the central Caribbean early next week and be near 16 North Latitude, 69 West Longitude in 5 days from now or on Tuesday morning as a upper end Category 1 or low end Category 2 hurricane. After that, who knows as there is an equal chance of either this system being picked up by the East Coast trough or be left behind just south of Jamaica by later next week.
So, all interests in the Windward Islands, Trinidad, Tobago and Barbados should closely monitor the progress of this system as Invest 91-L may be on your doorstep in just 48 hours as a tropical storm. In addition, all interests in the Caribbean, especially those in Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic should keep close tabs on this system. I will be keeping a close eye on this potential and will keep you all updated.
This sounds like Patrick Jattan from TEMA Tobago.
This is the link I got in from http://www.crownweather.com" target="_blank
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUYANA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
(except its gona be on da West rite?) epic flood this wkend!!Bulletin#4
Date: Friday 29th of October 2010
ISSUED AT:06:25AM
ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE INFORMATION BULLETIN 4
ACTIVE AND VIGOUROUS TROPICAL WAVE 650KM EAST OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
At 5.00am today the area of low pressure
associated with the very active Tropical Wave is
now centered approximately 650km east of Trinidad
and Tobago and has become better organized.
The wave is moving toward the west to
west-northwest at 24 to 32 kmh and there is a 60%
chance of intensifying into a Tropical Depression
over the next 24 to 48 hours. Environmental
conditions are favourable for further
development.
The leading periphery of the wave should begin
affecting Trinidad and Tobago during the late
afternoon/evening. Moderate to heavy showers can
be expected along with isolated thundershowers
capable of producing 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.
These downpours can yield moderate to severe
street or flash flooding and strong bursts of
gusts in excess of 50kmh.
As the wave continues to intensify and move closer
to Trinidad and Tobago showery activity can yield
3 to 4 inches and possibly 5 to 6 inches from
early Saturday into Sunday. Wind speeds with
gusts in excess of 55kmh are likely.
All interests in Trinidad and Tobago are asked to
regard the possibility of these severe weather
conditions seriously and adopt measures which
would safeguard lives and property and pay close
attention to information being issued by the
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services.
WE WISH TO UNDERSCORE THAT AT THIS TIME TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO IS NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL STORM
THREAT, WATCH OR WARNING.
The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services
is closely monitoring this weather situation and
will issue another bulletin at 6:00 am tomorrow
or sooner if the situation warrants.
E. Moolchan
Meteorologist
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