2010 and 2011 Tropical weather discussion

[NorStar2K]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM SHARY...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.

2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON SHARY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
NNNN

[Hook]

so the states and pre disaster systems that are activated in the states are realy dumb then? becuase they put evacuation proc. in place many hours before an event....?? because pre disast. prep. is based on effective warning systems.......and at the end of the day if it doesnt hit at least ppl were prepared...

Daz what yuh FEEL!

Remember after Ivan, pictures of a fallen chair in Westmoorings were circulated via email and everybody had a good laugh at the MET Office?
"nuttin eh happen! dem eh know wha dey doin in dey!"...remember that?

If nothing happens, allyuh just gonna fack us up again...but we back broad and we skin tough...bring it!

[SRASC]

it ain't looking so bad from this image. Looks like the heavier rain going.

[redmanjp]

NHC 8 AM bulletin say 80% chance though

http://metoffice.gov.tt/bulletins/article.aspx?id=5981

Bulletin#4

Date: Friday 29th of October 2010
ISSUED AT:10:05AM

WE WISH TO UNDERSCORE THAT AT THIS TIME TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO IS NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL STORM
THREAT, WATCH OR WARNING.

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services
is closely monitoring this weather situation and
will issue another bulletin at 6:00 pm today or
sooner if the situation warrants.


At 5.00am today the area of low pressure
associated with the very active Tropical Wave is
now centered approximately 650km east of Trinidad
and Tobago and has become better organized.

The wave is moving toward the west to
west-northwest at 24 to 32 kmh and there is a 60%
chance of intensifying into a Tropical Depression
over the next 24 to 48 hours. Environmental
conditions are favourable for further
development.

The leading periphery of the wave should begin
affecting Trinidad and Tobago during the late
afternoon/evening. Moderate to heavy showers can
be expected along with isolated thundershowers
capable of producing 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.
These downpours can yield moderate to severe
street or flash flooding and strong bursts of
gusts in excess of 50kmh.

As the wave continues to intensify and move
closer to Trinidad and Tobago showery activity
can yield 3 to 4 inches and possibly 5 to 6
inches from early Saturday into Sunday. Wind
speeds with gusts in excess of 55kmh are likely.

All interests in Trinidad and Tobago are asked to
regard the possibility of these severe weather
conditions seriously and adopt measures which
would safeguard lives and property and pay close
attention to information being issued by the
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services.

WE WISH TO UNDERSCORE THAT AT THIS TIME TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO IS NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL STORM
THREAT, WATCH OR WARNING.


The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services is
closely monitoring this weather situation and will
issue another bulletin at 6:00 pm today or sooner
if the situation warrants.

E. Moolchan
Meteorologist

[teems1]

when is the next update for today?

EDIT: nvm, someone just posted latest one, which indicates the time for the next one.

[apple]

geez

[Hook]

^^^ please stop spamming the thread, apple.

[Bezman]

watch all cyat this weekend!!!

warn allya since monday!!

[SUPAstarr]

My wife teaches she says talk is already circulating that schools in POS will be sendin home children at 12:00...im awaiting confirmation

[Hook]

Keep in mind that if everybody buss out same time, everybody gonna stick-up by all the exit routes and nobody goes anywhere.

[SRASC]

According to this it should have been raining for 45 mins in the east already.

[Hook]

^^^ serious? according to what? that's middle and high cloud meng...that pic shows cloud temperature...stop doing that nuh...please

[SUPAstarr]

Keep in mind that if everybody buss out same time, everybody gonna stick-up by all the exit routes and nobody goes anywhere.

Agreed bottlenecks galore, but one other teacher was told to pick up children at that primary school on dundonald st, another teacher has to do the same at another primary school. Her school has recieved no official notification yet but the Dean has informed form 5's that they will be leavin at noon.

I eat out mih emergency Crix so i hadda go an replace it

[shotta 20]

^^^ serious? according to what? that's middle and high cloud meng...that pic shows cloud temperature...stop doing that nuh...please

X2

Let our meteorologist advise..

[Bezman]

until this evening is normel weather/rain etc, from tomorrow morning is rain/wind/rain in ya rukka ka tunk tunks

[redmanjp]

until this evening is normel weather/rain etc, from tomorrow morning is rain/wind/rain in ya rukka ka tunk tunks

i believe its from tonight

[streetbeastINC.]

wel in all workign disaster plan models if the event does not occur....we should be happy.. and use it as a procedural drill....to at least know yes...in an event...this works

[SUPAstarr]

St. Marys College has officially ended school for the day

[jhonnieblue]

lil grey on the outside but not bad

[acesinghit]

People don't panic, gas stations looking more filled especially for this time of day and people have a lot of tin/canned items in their shopping carts....maybe its mind over matter but there are alot of cars heading out of pos.....check Aranjuez and El Socorro lights..

[wagon r]

....*...makes paper boats, towel by the door...goggles..*.....

i set.

[teems1]

jta in marabella was more crowded than usual when i went.

[Humes]

*loads up Civilization 5 and gets comfy*

[Humes]

I'm making sure to do my part by subtly spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt in this office.

[apple109]

im tired of sitting here waiting to go home stuppess. D sun still so hotttt

[wagonrunner]

it ain't looking so bad from this image. Looks like the heavier rain going.

Throughout this thread, the fella below has tried to help you understand the images you see.

That banding we're seeing there is actually in the upper levels where there's organized outflow. However at the lower levels, there's nothing at this time to suggest circulation, and thus no inflow. No closed isobars = no defined curculation = it does not meet criteria for being called a depression/storm, however, storm-like conditions are expected with heavy showers and thundershowers and gusty winds in bursts exceeding 50km/h in some instances.

There's a 60% chance it could intensify (I'm hearing some saying 80%) over the next 12-24hrs and we're closely monitoring it and talking with the NHC, and the other MET Offices in the Caribbean to be able to give the public the earliest possible warning if it intensifies. You MAY get a just-in-case warning, but this is no indication to panic...just to be prepared.

[SmokeyGTi]

http://metoffice.gov.tt/bulletins/article.aspx?id=5981

ulletin#4

Date: Friday 29th of October 2010
ISSUED AT:10:05AM

WE WISH TO UNDERSCORE THAT AT THIS TIME TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO IS NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL STORM
THREAT, WATCH OR WARNING.

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services
is closely monitoring this weather situation and
will issue another bulletin at 6:00 pm today or
sooner if the situation warrants.


At 5.00am today the area of low pressure
associated with the very active Tropical Wave is
now centered approximately 650km east of Trinidad
and Tobago and has become better organized.

The wave is moving toward the west to
west-northwest at 24 to 32 kmh and there is a 60%
chance of intensifying into a Tropical Depression
over the next 24 to 48 hours. Environmental
conditions are favourable for further
development.


The leading periphery of the wave should begin
affecting Trinidad and Tobago during the late
afternoon/evening. Moderate to heavy showers can
be expected along with isolated thundershowers
capable of producing 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.
These downpours can yield moderate to severe
street or flash flooding and strong bursts of
gusts in excess of 50kmh.

As the wave continues to intensify and move
closer to Trinidad and Tobago showery activity
can yield 3 to 4 inches and possibly 5 to 6
inches from early Saturday into Sunday. Wind
speeds with gusts in excess of 55kmh are likely.


All interests in Trinidad and Tobago are asked to
regard the possibility of these severe weather
conditions seriously and adopt measures which
would safeguard lives and property and pay close
attention to information being issued by the
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services.

WE WISH TO UNDERSCORE THAT AT THIS TIME TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO IS NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL STORM
THREAT, WATCH OR WARNING.



The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services is
closely monitoring this weather situation and will
issue another bulletin at 6:00 pm today or sooner
if the situation warrants.

E. Moolchan
Meteorologist

[wagonrunner]

St. Marys College has officially ended school for the day

as well as other schools in PoS.
bptt and i think BG, have ended work since 11a. not sure about bhp

[Country_Bookie]

I'm making sure to do my part by subtly spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt in this office.

Lol.
Yuh doh find it funny how easy them office women does start panicking?
One ah dem by me want to know all what she should go in the grocery and buy….I suggest at least 3 btls of scotch.

[Damien]

helicopters flying like that platforms evacuating ???