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000
AXNT20 KNHC 300550
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 30 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS AT 30/0600 UTC IS NEAR 12.4N
58.8W...MOVING WNW NEAR 13 KT. TOMAS IS ABOUT 65 NM SE OF
BARBADOS...AND ABOUT 150 NM ESE OF ST. VINCENT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG 10N-13N BETWEEN 55W-57W...AND FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 55W-60W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 54W-62W. PORTIONS OF THE OUTER
RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THESE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL THREAT OF FLOODING.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY AT 30/0300 UTC IS NEAR 31.9N
63.3W...OR ABOUT 130 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SHARY
IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SHARY HAS LOST MOST OF ITS ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION AS IT BEGINS TO BE SHEARED APART BY AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE ERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-36N BETWEEN 61W-66W. STRONG
SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM.
SHARY IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W ALONG
11N21W 7N30W 8N36W 7N44W 10N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 18N19W 12N21W 7N25W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 19W-23W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN
32W-39W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 38W-44W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W
ALONG 23N86W 22N92W BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 21N94W 18N94W...AS
OF 0300 UTC. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 80W-82W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 93W-96W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED S OF 22N W OF 94W NEAR THE TAIL
END OF THIS FRONT FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 31/1200 UTC. A
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE N ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE
TO SURFACE WIND AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM
THE SW CARIBBEAN TO S OF HISPANIOLA MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST
SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS
NRN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. THE ERN HALF OF THE
BASIN IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM T.S. TOMAS
WHICH IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE IMPACTS OF
OUTER RAINBANDS OF TOMAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE ERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS
AS IT TRACKS WNW THEN W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W CONTINUING TOWARDS THE SW ACROSS THE
NW BAHAMAS TO NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA AT 25N80W. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN
UNITED STATES SEABOARD. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS APPROACHING T.S.
SHARY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 45W-65W. MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHING AND THE UPPER RIDGE ARE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A 150 NM WIDE SWATH FROM N
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W TO 32N56W. TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS
THE S APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TO THE NE...A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW
IS NEAR 26N47W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
22N-28N BETWEEN 45W-48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER A
DRY AIR MASS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS SUPPORTS A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS SW OF THE AZORES. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS S OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING S OF 27N
BETWEEN 25W-45W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
WALTON
Hook wrote:*yawns..stretches...digs yampee from eye...sees roof...room not drafty...farts...puts on kettle*
playerskrew wrote:Them meteorologists is a waste a of time yes.
geodude wrote:i wonder what profession playerskrew is employed within and if he is 100% right all the time?
Date: Saturday 30th of October 2010
ISSUED AT:09:37AM
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY 7
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO,
GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
Issued by the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological
Service
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for
Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada and its dependencies.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that Trinidad and
Tobago, Grenada and its dependencies can expect
Tropical Storm conditions within 36 hours.
At 8:00am today, Saturday, October 30, 2010, the
centre of Tropical Storm Tomas was located near
13.1ºN latitude 60.1ºW longitude or about 115
kilometers east of St. Vincent.
Tropical Storm Tomas is moving to the
west-northwest at about 24km/hr. This general
motion is expected to continue over the next 24
to 48 hours during which it is forecast to
intensify and slow in forward speed as
environmental conditions continue to be conducive
for strengthening. Tomas is close to Hurricane
strength.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110km/hr with
higher gusts. Tropical Storm force winds extend
outwards up to 220 km from the centre. Minimum
central pressure is 994mb.
Although Tobago, Grenada and it dependencies
remain within the storm environment, major
convective activity is north and east of these
islands.
Feeder band activity poses a serious threat for
the remainder of Trinidad.
Further, the slow westward movement of Tomas
could bring the southernmost periphery of its
cloud envelope over some areas of Trinidad later
today.
Tropical Storm Tomas therefore still poses a real
and imminent threat as long as it remains in our
island’s vicinity rotating, gathering strength
and slowly moving.
Tomas can produce total rainfall accumulations in
excess of 25mm across Central and Southern
Trinidad in some locations and possibly in
excess of 75 mm over Tobago, Northern Trinidad,
Grenada and its dependencies.. Sea conditions are
also anticipated to become very disturbed and
adversely affect marine and coastline interests.
Citizens and all concerned are advised to closely
follow the directions and advise of their
Disaster Emergency Managers at this time. Adopt
all necessary measures to preserve life and
property.
Repeating Tropical Storm Tomas 8:00am position:
13.1ºN latitude 60.1ºW longitude or about 115
kilometers east of St.Vincent.
The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services
will issue another bulletin at 12:00noon later
today. Please refer to the Trinidad and Tobago
Meteorological Services website,
http://www.metoffice.gov.tt, for further details and
stay tuned to your regular broadcast media.
E. Moolchan
Meteorologist
geodude wrote:how the fack allyuh does know everybody bizznezz so
pioneer wrote:this is so lame...i wanted a storm to hit n catch all dem dotish ignorant trinis off guard
them watch dem beg de government for help
for those affectedtr1ad wrote:playerskrew wrote:Them meteorologists is a waste a of time yes.
the same can be said for you and all those that make a mockery of them
they do the best they can with what they have at their disposal and to the best of their knowledge
if god/fate/weather conditions cause changes is it their fault?
it's like mechanical failure, cannot be pre-emptive or predicted
playerskrew wrote:Them meteorologists is a waste a of time yes.
norstar2k wrote:tr1ad wrote:playerskrew wrote:Them meteorologists is a waste a of time yes.
the same can be said for you and all those that make a mockery of them
they do the best they can with what they have at their disposal and to the best of their knowledge
if god/fate/weather conditions cause changes is it their fault?
it's like mechanical failure, cannot be pre-emptive or predicted
Thank you!
Meteorology is an inexact science, so they can only forecast and make predictions based on trending, statistics, historical data, other variables etc.
As tr1ad indicated, if a system changes direction, speed, etc. how can you blame them?
It's simple, if a TS is moving at 25km/ph in a SSW direction and a land mass is 100km away, wouldn't you anticipate, if all remained constant, that the TS would make landfall in 4 hours? But what if it slowed to 20km/ph then landfall would be delayed based on previous info and make landfall in five hours. If it changed its vector by 10 degrees for example, its no longer on a direct path for said landmass. Feeder bands from the system may be all that may be experienced then. Some other landmass in now the TS's target.
We need to stop criticizing what we don't understand or choose not to understand for the sake of creating confusion. Be glad it didn't strike.
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