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bluesclues wrote:Redman wrote:bluesclues wrote:i will put one suggestion. sell 50% of we reserves and use it to make a payment towards reducing the deficit owed. that should make our dollar a little more resilient in these times. we already know for sure that as energy technologies advance, demand for oil will reduce and so will price. though there may be price spikes on the market. it's destiny is downward. sell half. keep the rest and see if the market will give you a better price for the rest later. if it does something stupid like doubles, then u basically got all your money back.
Nah breds.
I would focus on becoming self reliant in terms of our domestic energy needs-regardless of what happens we can handle it.
deal with the food import bill
and ask my wife to lay off amazon for a month.....USD demand plummets....econ sorted.
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and why pay off debt when its likely that inflation rates in TTd and USD will be heading higher.....making the debt cheaper to repay.
USD heading to its intrinsic value.
because the debt creates inflation son.
bluesclues wrote:Redman wrote:no
Increased money supply causes inflation.
One of the mechanisms that may increase money supply would be debt.
Debt can exist without inflation.
debt can exist without inflating the dollar and causing an immediate devaluation. but debt inflates the economy, weakening the dollar and juxtaposes the dollar so that devaluation will occur with the first major mishap. this isnt china where we have such a thriving export sector that we can keep our dollar undervalued to increase supply, encouraging and generating more foreign investment. we have one major export which is in an at risk market and a tourism sector that is anything but flourishing. even for carnival.
this magic, cheaper debt being paid by inflated currency is the same dream greece was hoping for.
the children of the future would like you to start paying back the loan you take on their heads please.
Redman wrote:bluesclues wrote:Redman wrote:no
Increased money supply causes inflation.
One of the mechanisms that may increase money supply would be debt.
Debt can exist without inflation.
debt can exist without inflating the dollar and causing an immediate devaluation. but debt inflates the economy, weakening the dollar and juxtaposes the dollar so that devaluation will occur with the first major mishap. this isnt china where we have such a thriving export sector that we can keep our dollar undervalued to increase supply, encouraging and generating more foreign investment. we have one major export which is in an at risk market and a tourism sector that is anything but flourishing. even for carnival.
this magic, cheaper debt being paid by inflated currency is the same dream greece was hoping for.
the children of the future would like you to start paying back the loan you take on their heads please.
You are talking in lock steps as if one thing leads directly to another....and it doesnt...
And We have more than one export.
Our level of debt isnt ridiculous and you are basing your outlook on a single event-energy prices heading much lower.
but back to the main point
selling half our energy reserves is asinine
Redman wrote:bluesclues wrote:Redman wrote:no
Increased money supply causes inflation.
One of the mechanisms that may increase money supply would be debt.
Debt can exist without inflation.
debt can exist without inflating the dollar and causing an immediate devaluation. but debt inflates the economy, weakening the dollar and juxtaposes the dollar so that devaluation will occur with the first major mishap. this isnt china where we have such a thriving export sector that we can keep our dollar undervalued to increase supply, encouraging and generating more foreign investment. we have one major export which is in an at risk market and a tourism sector that is anything but flourishing. even for carnival.
this magic, cheaper debt being paid by inflated currency is the same dream greece was hoping for.
the children of the future would like you to start paying back the loan you take on their heads please.
You are talking in lock steps as if one thing leads directly to another....and it doesnt...
And We have more than one export.
Our level of debt isnt ridiculous and you are basing your outlook on a single event-energy prices heading much lower.
but back to the main point
selling half our energy reserves is asinine
Redman wrote:bluesclues wrote:Redman wrote:no
Increased money supply causes inflation.
One of the mechanisms that may increase money supply would be debt.
Debt can exist without inflation.
debt can exist without inflating the dollar and causing an immediate devaluation. but debt inflates the economy, weakening the dollar and juxtaposes the dollar so that devaluation will occur with the first major mishap. this isnt china where we have such a thriving export sector that we can keep our dollar undervalued to increase supply, encouraging and generating more foreign investment. we have one major export which is in an at risk market and a tourism sector that is anything but flourishing. even for carnival.
this magic, cheaper debt being paid by inflated currency is the same dream greece was hoping for.
the children of the future would like you to start paying back the loan you take on their heads please.
You are talking in lock steps as if one thing leads directly to another....and it doesnt...
And We have more than one export.
Our level of debt isnt ridiculous and you are basing your outlook on a single event-energy prices heading much lower.
but back to the main point
selling half our energy reserves is asinine
well it wouldnt be the first time i make statements that get put down by the 'more educated', only to realize later that what im saying is true. wait till it worth $20. that would be a great time to sell. :rollseyes:
if u dont understand that it IS all connected you dont understand what a circulatory economy is. it is a butterfly effect. i mean really... you arguing about supply and dont realize that taking in more debt is akin to printing more money and thus raising supply. which creates inflation, reducing the purchasing power of the dollar until the inflation gets too high and the currency devalues.
its quite clear u dont understand the full scope of economic management. which is why you cant see the connected aspects.
buh anyhow allour.. it dey eh. it dey. when shtf i will be back to say 'i told u so'. as always. i din bong to suggest nuttn to the pnm. and that is the only suggestion i making for the next 5 years.
i will put one suggestion. sell 50% of we reserves and use it to make a payment towards reducing the deficit owed. that should make our dollar a little more resilient in these times.
RBphoto wrote:j.o.e wrote:Engine tax should be replaced by a tax based on manufacturer stated mpg. For the specific engine being brought to showrooms. (This only applies to new cars)
So in some cases we will be able to get bigger engines that are more efficient if that is the case. As well as cheaper hybrids etc. People should be rewarded for choosing more efficient vehicles.
Taxing based on engine size is no longer useful.
This ^^^^ a good idea, to rationalize taxing engines, but I am altogether against any type of evaluated tax and in favor of a flat tax for another reason. The more leeway you give licencing officers to evaluate the tax lower for an importer, the greater the probability there would be a bribe. Remove any benefit they can provide to someone for a bribe and there would be less chance of a bribe.
Daran wrote:Redman wrote:bluesclues wrote:Redman wrote:no
Increased money supply causes inflation.
One of the mechanisms that may increase money supply would be debt.
Debt can exist without inflation.
debt can exist without inflating the dollar and causing an immediate devaluation. but debt inflates the economy, weakening the dollar and juxtaposes the dollar so that devaluation will occur with the first major mishap. this isnt china where we have such a thriving export sector that we can keep our dollar undervalued to increase supply, encouraging and generating more foreign investment. we have one major export which is in an at risk market and a tourism sector that is anything but flourishing. even for carnival.
this magic, cheaper debt being paid by inflated currency is the same dream greece was hoping for.
the children of the future would like you to start paying back the loan you take on their heads please.
You are talking in lock steps as if one thing leads directly to another....and it doesnt...
And We have more than one export.
Our level of debt isnt ridiculous and you are basing your outlook on a single event-energy prices heading much lower.
but back to the main point
selling half our energy reserves is asinine
X2
Intelligent commentary, and honestly both PP and PNM managed the economy quite effectively. That said, Rowley's hint of taking a loan for the Rapid Rail is asinine, especially given that our economy is buffered on oil, gas and drugs, all of which will face an inevitable decline (as most drugs will eventually be de-criminalized, leading to new suppliers and lower demand).
With regards to the rapid rail, it's not a bad idea per say, but traditional transport routes need to be expanded, leveraged and made more efficient. Simple things like the following will have a far greater impact on traffic at a fraction of the cost, while creating more long term employment.
1. Park and ride shuttles across all urban areas and cities
2. School bus systems
3. Staggered working hours
4. Intelligent traffic lights
5. Expanding the road networks (new lanes, new roads, interchanges)
5. Incentives for decentralization in the private sector
Redman wrote:
well it wouldnt be the first time i make statements that get put down by the 'more educated', only to realize later that what im saying is true. wait till it worth $20. that would be a great time to sell. :rollseyes:
if u dont understand that it IS all connected you dont understand what a circulatory economy is. it is a butterfly effect. i mean really... you arguing about supply and dont realize that taking in more debt is akin to printing more money and thus raising supply. which creates inflation, reducing the purchasing power of the dollar until the inflation gets too high and the currency devalues.
its quite clear u dont understand the full scope of economic management. which is why you cant see the connected aspects.
buh anyhow allour.. it dey eh. it dey. when shtf i will be back to say 'i told u so'. as always. i din bong to suggest nuttn to the pnm. and that is the only suggestion i making for the next 5 years.
Ok so based on De Dragons emotive response..lets see.i will put one suggestion. sell 50% of we reserves and use it to make a payment towards reducing the deficit owed. that should make our dollar a little more resilient in these times.
1)How much per barrel do you think we will get?
None of your opinions are uncommon ..so what value would we get from unproduced reserves..?
What figure did you use?
2) SO the entities need to produce the reserves.....transport,ship to market.Unless its processed here. After this is factored in whats the net figure we get??
3)What do we do with the demand for local transportation fuels? Import ???
At what rate can we convert our rolling stock to alternative fuels
4)What do we with the refinery that is designed for our locally produced API crude?Import???
5) How do we replace the Royalties and Taxes the Govt will receive from the production of these reserves?
6) Considering that the Caribbean islands are importers of all fuels ....should we become like them and have a daily USD import bill that cant be met?..based on the MOEEE consolidated report July 2015..Petrotrin sold LOCALLY 2.65M BBLs of Gas and 2.4M BBLs of Diesel.Since the international prices are similar we could count that as 5M bbls of imports over 7 months. There are 42 US gallons ina Oil Barrel...we could use $2 USD per barrel ...420M USD or about 2M USD per day....
7) With our debt to GDP at about 50% why would we take such drastic action??
8 ) Interest rates less rate of inflation=true cost of debt. Mathematically does it make sense to sell off productive assets to pay off low cost debt?
Selling the reserves means that we are able to meet our own refining/transportation requirements for a short time in the future....
It means FINANCING for current production becomes impossible....current arrangements are based on us having oil to produce.
It means depending on International sources for a mandatory need...subject to international prices.
Making the suggestion indicated that bluesclues would have done some numerical analysis..and should be able to defend it in some detail....substantiating his conclusion.
To do otherwise would be ....asinine.
bluesclues wrote:Redman wrote:..
Making the suggestion indicated that bluesclues would have done some numerical analysis..and should be able to defend it in some detail....substantiating his conclusion.
To do otherwise would be ....asinine.
cant we just sell it to foreign investors as shares? so that they basically will now own 50% of our reserves and we'll hold on to the cold hard cash. guyana i believe just entered into an arrangement for trinidad to supply it with oil because the venezuelan shipments arriving late.
many countries that are not oil producing like us still want to secure a supply of oil for their country's needs. its just about who's going to do the sales pitch and ensure the deal is mutually beneficial to the parties involved. im fine with a value of $40-45 per reserve share for up to 50%. current market prices. if oil goes back to $20 and we dont sell anything. it basically was an excercise in futility standing on worthless reserves as a means to backup our budget deficit. maybe we should start working with that figure from now. and stop promoting reserves value as x and x based on current market prices because we know it gonna go down. so truth be told, instead of 65billion worth of reserves. by the time it gets sold its true value is only about 20bn. so that is the current value of the reserves.
how we paying back the deficit now? we going and borrow from greece?
Redman wrote:bluesclues wrote:Redman wrote:..
Making the suggestion indicated that bluesclues would have done some numerical analysis..and should be able to defend it in some detail....substantiating his conclusion.
To do otherwise would be ....asinine.
cant we just sell it to foreign investors as shares? so that they basically will now own 50% of our reserves and we'll hold on to the cold hard cash. guyana i believe just entered into an arrangement for trinidad to supply it with oil because the venezuelan shipments arriving late.
many countries that are not oil producing like us still want to secure a supply of oil for their country's needs. its just about who's going to do the sales pitch and ensure the deal is mutually beneficial to the parties involved. im fine with a value of $40-45 per reserve share for up to 50%. current market prices. if oil goes back to $20 and we dont sell anything. it basically was an excercise in futility standing on worthless reserves as a means to backup our budget deficit. maybe we should start working with that figure from now. and stop promoting reserves value as x and x based on current market prices because we know it gonna go down. so truth be told, instead of 65billion worth of reserves. by the time it gets sold its true value is only about 20bn. so that is the current value of the reserves.
how we paying back the deficit now? we going and borrow from greece?
So your position is getting some one to pay 40 for a barrel.....spend 20 per barrel to extract....ignoring the capex...which could be significant ....in order to sell it back at.......45..?.??
He selling here?...if so GORTT gets 50% royalty...which means the poor fella gets a haircut.
We either change the law...forgoing revenue...
Or he ships..to a market where...though where?
You were sure that oil prices heading lower.Now you suggesting that there is some one who is smart enough to amass the money to purchase ,but dumb enough to pay 50% above market for risked reserves.when one can purchase all the oil one can need already at surface.
Let's discuss the above...I'm willing to be convinced......before we reach to payback....we need to get someone to buy
Slartibartfast wrote:Also, annual performance reviews of permanently employed public employees so they could get rid of more of the dead weight. They could also offer more permanent jobs while they at it. Hold on to the good ones while they letting the bad ones go.
sMASH wrote:But how can they justify non performance ?
Posting of the accounting of the ministery on their website is a wonderful idea. This way, anyone can easily peruse and flag any inappropriate spending.
And as a citizen of TnT, we should be able to monitor how every cent being spent.
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